Porto vs Roma Champions League Odds & Analysis

Porto vs Roma Champions League Odds & Analysis

Written by on March 4, 2019

When you get to the knock-out stage of the Champions League, the stakes get raised by a rather hefty margin. It is possible to have an off day in the group stages of this tournament and still live to tell the tale, but that margin for error goes out the window once we get into this portion of the tournament. In these games, the goal in the opening leg for each team is quite simple. For the home team, it’s all about getting the win without conceding a goal, while the road team will try to keep it close and snatch an away goal if possible.

That latter element can prove to be the difference, as those away goals count double in the event of a tied aggregate score over the two legs. Porto will head home this weekend for their second leg (Round of 16) with Roma with that away goal in tow, but they still have some work to do. The Italians won 2-1 in their home game in leg 1, so Porto still needs to win this one in order to move on, while Roma can sneak through with a draw. It’s all up for grabs in the second leg. Porto is favored by ½, with the O/U set at 2 ½.

Porto vs Roma Champions League Odds & Analysis

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Head to Head

  • Previous Matches: 5
  • Draws: 2
  • Porto Victories: 2
  • Porto Goals: 7
  • Roma Victories: 1
  • Roma Goals: 3

Why bet on Porto?

That away goal for Porto could prove to be absolutely vital, but only if they come out and get the job done at home. Like all good Italian sides, the Roma defense is not going to be easy to penetrate, so Porto will need to be patient and not force turnovers that could result in them being hit on the break. A 1-0 win would be good enough for Porto, but they are unlikely to settle for that single goal if they can go out and grab the lead.

The one thing to keep in mind here is that while they won their last 2 games at home in the group stage, they also gave up a goal in each of those outings. Porto is a team that certainly knows the road to goal, but they are going to need to be tighter at the back in this one.

Expected Line-up

  • 1-I. Casillas
  • 33-Pepe
  • 13-Alex Telles
  • 28-Felipe
  • 3-Éder Militão
  • 16-H. Herrera
  • 22-Danilo Pereira
  • 25-Otavinho
  • 8-Y. Brahimi
  • 29-Tiquinho
  • 37-Fernando

Why bet on Roma?

Roma will be absolutely furious that they gave up that goal on their own turf in the opening leg, as it puts them under a whole lot more pressure than they would have been if they had escaped with a 2-0 win. In the group stage, they proved that they could go into hostile territory and get the win, coming away with a 3-0 win against CSKA Moscow.

Porto vs Roma is one of the best UCL games scheduled for Wednesday.

I would suggest that Porto are a much stronger team than the Russians, though, so don’t expect to see that type of offensive output here. Roma does have a proven goal scorer in Edin Dzeko, with the big Bosnian scoring 5 and assisting on 3 in UCL play this season. If they are to steal a goal, he may be the man to do it.

Expected Line-up

  • 83-A. Mirante
  • 11-A. Kolarov
  • 20-F. Fazio
  • 44-K. Manolas
  • 24-A. Florenzi
  • 16-D. De Rossi
  • 4-B. Cristante
  • 7-Lorenzo Pellegrini
  • 22-N. Zaniolo
  • 9-E. Džeko
  • 92-S. El Shaarawy

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Porto vs Roma

This one is going to be incredibly tight and tense, and it may well be a single goal that decides it. I think Porto can get the goal that moves them on to the last 8.

Score: Porto 1 – Roma 0