Australian Open Odds & Picks: Quarter-final Games to Must Bet On

Australian Open Odds & Picks: Quarter-final Games to Must Bet On

Tuesday brings the second day of quarterfinals action at the Australian Open, with the overall favorites on both sides of the draw in action. The men’s draw also features an All-American clash that will provide the first U.S. male in the Australian Open semifinals since 2009. Let’s have a look at the remaining quarter finals matchups along with their Australian Open Odds.

2023 Australian Open Predictions & Betting Opportunities | Tennis Odds

Djokovic on Historic Run

Betting on the favorites to win their matches is a tough ticket. Nine-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic is -800 as the No. 4 seed to beat the No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev (+460). Djokovic has won 25 straight matches at the Australian Open, and he’s lost just one set at this tournament, coming in a tiebreak. 

Djokovic is looking for a record-tying 22nd grand slam title, and he’s 12-1 in his last 13 quarterfinals with a loss at the 2022 French Open. In his career, Djokovic is 9-3 in the quarters in Melbourne, and he’s then gone 9-0 in the semifinals and 9-0 in the finals. 

Rublev is 0-6 in grand slam quarterfinals, including a loss at the 2021 Australian Open. He has made it to the quarters in three straight slams but is yet to reach a semifinal. Rublev has lost three sets at this tournament, one in a tie-break, and he defeated No. 9 Holger Rune in five sets last round. 

Djokovic is 2-1 lifetime against Rublev, with wins at the last two ATP Finals in straight sets. Rublev’s lone win came in three sets on clay last summer, and he will be hard-pressed to end Djokovic’s mammoth Australian run. 

Sabalenka on a Mission

Aryna Sabalenka is the odds-on favorite to win the Australian Open at +230. The No. 5 seed is -409 to win her quarterfinal match against unseeded Donna Vekic. She hasn’t lost a set yet at Melbourne Park this year and knocked off a pair of seeded players to reach the quarters for the first time at this event. 

Sabalenka is 3-0 in her career in grand slam quarterfinals, with two wins in the U.S. Open and one at Wimbledon. Vekic lost in the quarters in the 2019 U.S. Open, and this is only her second career quarterfinal. 

Vekic has had a dream draw so far, only facing one seeded player in her first four matches. Ranked No. 34 in the world, Vekic has lost just two sets this far in Melbourne, one of those in a tiebreak. She is  5-1 lifetime against Sabalenka, including a win at the Tokyo Olympics, and four of the matches have gone 3 sets, all wins for Vekic. The best bet here is to have this match go three sets again, but Sabalenka wins.

Paul Favored in American Battle

The last time an American male made the semifinals at the Australian Open was Andy Roddick in 2009. That will change in the next 24 hours as Americans Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton go head-to-head in the quarterfinals. This is the first quarterfinal for both players and just the second-ever slam for Shelton, the 2022 NCAA singles champion. 

These two have never met, and both are having tremendous tournaments. Paul has dropped two sets, one in the second round and one in the fourth round. He is favored to win the semifinal at -270 after beating the No. 30 and No. 24 seeds in the last week. 

Shelton, who’s father is a college tennis coach at the University of Florida, hasn’t played a seeded player yet in Australia. He had to go five sets to win in the first round and again in the fourth round, and he’s +202 to beat Paul in the quarterfinals. 

Shelton hasn’t faced a top-50 player, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the nerves of a grand slam quarterfinal. Paul, 25, has more experience on the big stage as a professional. Shelton’s serve, which topped 140 mph in the win over J.J. Wolf, will look to keep the points short and use his power against Paul. 

At +220, Shelton is worth a bet to win this match and reach the semifinals, where he’d be a massive underdog against either Djokovic or Rublev. 


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