The tennis calendar continues to charge toward the French Open but will head to the ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open Masters without two of the biggest names on tour. Five-time Madrid Open champion and the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, has been out since the Australian Open. Now, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic has also taken an injury and withdrawn from the Madrid Open after an early loss last week in Bosnia.
Their departures leave Carlos Alcaraz as a clear favorite and top seed this week. The young Spaniard may also emerge as the French Open favorite as well if neither Djokovic nor Nadal is able to recover in time to make it to Roland Garros next month.
The injury withdrawals, plus the 2022 retirement of Roger Federer, means this will be the first-ever Madrid Open not to feature the Big 3. The last time the event was held without Djokovic or Nadal was in 2002 when it was still played on the hard courts.
Let’s take a look at the ATP odds for the ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open and some of the first-round odds at MyBookie.
2023 ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open Odds, Picks, and Tennis Betting Analysis
2023 Mutua Madrid Open
When: 25 April − 7 May, 2023
Category: ATP Tour Masters 1000 | WTA 1000
Where: Park Manzanares, La Caja Mágica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay / outdoor
Alcaraz the Man to Beat
Alcaraz is a big favorite to repeat his 2022 Madrid Open title as he opens the tournament at +100. He is 23-2 so far in 2023 with three titles claimed, and he just steamrolled to the Barcelona Open title on clay with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The top seed has a pretty easy draw to the quarterfinals as well. He could face Alexander Zverev in a rematch of last year’s final in the round of 16, but the German has fallen to No. 16 in the world with a 10-11 record so far this season. A matchup with Np. 5 seed Andrey Rublev looms in the quarters, with the Russian having won the Monte Carlo title earlier this month.
Tsitsipas Getting Close
The 2023 season has been one of close calls for Tsitsipas, with an overall record of 20-6. However, he hasn’t won a title since a finals loss to Djokovic in the Australian Open and last week to Alcaraz in Barcelona. He is 6-2 on clay so far this season and reached the semifinals in Madrid last year.
Tsitsipas is in the bottom half of the draw and wouldn’t face Alcaraz again until the final. He won this event in 2019 and reached the finals at the French Open in 2021. Ranked No. 5 in the world and seeded No. 4, Tsitsipas is +900 to win in Madrid, the second-best odds after Alcaraz.
Looking at the draw, he does have a couple of early challenges, with 14-seed Tommy Paul as a possible early matchup. In the quarters, he could face No. 9 Frances Tiafoe or No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime, but neither is as accomplished on clay as Tsitsipas.
The Other Contenders
The next wave is led by No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev at +1200 to win it all, just ahead of Zverev and No. 6 seed Holger Rune at +1600. Rublev is +2800, and No. 3 seed Casper Ruud leads a group of players at +3500 to win the title.
Medvedev doesn’t have a great track record on clay, and he took last week off. The Russian lost to Rune in the quarterfinals of the Monte Carlo Open, and all four of his titles this season are on hard courts. A challenging matchup against former Madrid champion Andy Murray awaits in the second round, and Medvedev will have to navigate past Cam Norrie, Taylor Fritz, and possibly Tsitsipas to reach the finals.
Rune, Rublev, and Ruud have seen success on clay so far this year. Rune and Ruud are in the same quadrant and could face each other in the quarterfinals, while Rublev has a tough path with Alcaraz in his quad.
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