The final day of the Nitto ATP Finals round-robin is Friday, November 18. Novak Djokovic is playing – and leading – Daniil Medvedev as of publishing time.
Djokovic has already cemented the first spot in his group and earned a favorable semifinal spot as the first seed in the Red Group. Medvedev, a finalist last year and winner of the 2020 ATP Finals, is also out of contention. Stefanos Tistsipas and Andrey Rublev are scheduled to play later today, with the winner advancing to play Casper Ruud, the first seed in the Green Group.
Ruud lost to Rafael Nadal, who had already been eliminated from contention on Thursday, but maintained his first seed due to prior wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz.
Auger-Aliassime and Fritz met in a crucial matchup Thursday afternoon to determine the second semifinalist in the Green Group. Fritz won the match 7-6 (7-4), 6-7 (5-7), and 6-2. Fritz was the No. 8 seed in the eight-player tournament. Let’s see the preview of your favorite bets.
Friday’s Final Round Robin Match
Tsitsipas and Rublev meet Friday afternoon in what is the biggest match of their respective seasons. The winner of the ATP Finals receives more than $2 million in prize money, while a victory in the semifinals earns players more than $1 million. So there’s a lot on the line here.
Tsitsipas is 6-4 in his career against Rublev, and five of their last eight matches have gone three sets. Expect a similar outcome here as both players will leave it all on the line for the chance to compete for millions of dollars and rankings points.
Tsitsipas is the slight betting favorite at -163, while Rublev is paying out +130. The match handicap for games is as follows: Tsitsipas -1.5 (-125) and Rublev +1.5 (-110).
The winner of the match will face Ruud in the semifinals. Tsitsipas is 1-1 in his career against the talented Norwegian player, while Rublev is 4-1 against Ruud.
Assuming Djokovic advances to the final (he’s a huge outright betting favorite), he’ll be favored against whomever he plays. Djokovic is 9-2 against Tsitsipas and 3-0 against Ruud. Surprisingly, he’s 1-1 against Rublev.
Previewing the Semifinal Matches
We can only predict Ruud’s semifinal opponent at this point, but we already know the other semifinal. Djokovic vs. Fritz. While there’s no odds yet for the match, expect Djokovic to be a massive favorite.
Djokovic is 5-0 against Fritz in his career and is arguably the hottest player on tour right now, having won two of his last three tournaments.
Four of Djokovic’s victories over Fritz have been in two sets, with his most recent win coming at the ATP Masters 1000 Paris quarter-finals a little more than one year ago.
Fritz took Djokovic to five sets in the Round of 32 at the Australian Open in 2021. If he can draw upon that experience, he may have a shot to advance to the final, but the safe money is on Djokovic.