Nitto ATP Finals Lines & Betting Update Nadal Eliminated, Auger-Aliassime Best Pick

Nitto ATP Finals Lines & Betting Update: Nadal Eliminated, Auger-Aliassime Best Pick

We’re three days through the Nitto ATP Finals, and there’s been very little decided, although one player is already out of contention. Rafael Nadal, one of the betting favorites to win the tournament, lost on Tuesday to Felix Auger-Aliassime to fall to 0-2. On Thursday, he plays Casper Ruud (2-0) in a primarily meaningless match.

Nadal’s two losses mean his fellow Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, who had to withdraw from the tournament due to an injury, will end the year as the top-ranked player in the world. 

Ruud leads the Green Group with a 2-0 record and has already punched his ticket to the semifinals. Taylor Fritz and Auger-Aliassime will play on Thursday, with the winner securing the second semifinal spot for the Green Group. Players in the Red Group play their second game on Wednesday. Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev are both 1-0, while Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are 0-1. Let’s have a look at our 2023 Nitto ATP Finals update so you can continue placing your bets on the ATP Odds.

Daily Tennis Betting Rundown of the 2022 Nitto ATP Finals

Updated Outright Betting Odds

Tuesday’s Results

Auger-Aliassime defeated Nadal 6-3, 6-4 in a relatively easy victory on Tuesday morning. Because Ruud defeated Fritz later on Tuesday, Nadal was eliminated from contention.

Auger-Aliassime came into the Nitto ATP Finals as one of the hottest players on tour, having won three of his last four tournaments. He’s peaking at the right time. The Canadian had yet to win a tournament before this season. 

Fritz, meanwhile, opened his tournament with a surprising 7-6 (3), 6-1 victory over Nadal. He lost a three-set affair to Ruud on Tuesday, meaning he currently holds onto second place in the Green Group. That won’t matter as of Thursday, however, as the winner of Fritz-Auger-Aliassime earns the second semifinal spot. 

Fritz is 1-0 in his career against Auger-Aliassime. 

A Look Ahead to Wednesday

Wednesday’s action in Turin, Italy, gets underway at 8 a.m. EST with a pivotal matchup between Monday’s winners, Rublev and Djokovic. A win for either won’t necessarily secure a spot in the semifinals, as there’s still a possibility that three players can go 2-1, but it’ll significantly boost their chances. Djokovic is the tournament favorite. Djokovic and Rublev split their only two meetings on the ATP Tour.

Tsitsipas and Medvedev meet in the other match at 3 p.m. EST. Medvedev, a former world No. 1, is 7-3 in his career against Tsitsipas. He’s 45-16 this season, while Tsitsipas is 60-22.

Best-Value Pick

It’s hard to bet against Djokovic. He’s won two of his last three tournaments and should get another boost after receiving news that he can play in the Australian Open in January. However, there’s excellent value in Auger-Aliassime at +600. 

The Canadian has wins against every other player in the tournament with the exception of Medvedev but, along with Djokovic, is the hottest player on tour. He could cement his status as one of the best players in the world with a victory in Italy.


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