UFC Fight Night 158 Cerrone vs Gaethje Odds, Preview & Picks.

UFC Fight Night 158 Cerrone vs Gaethje Odds, Preview & Picks

Written by on September 13, 2019

The UFC takes its action back outside the United States this week as it visits Rogers Arena in beautiful Vancouver for a UFC Fight Night card featuring a non-title fight between very good lightweights in Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje. Here’s a look at that fight and the co-main event with MyBookie UFC Odds.

UFC Fight Night 158 Cerrone vs Gaethje Odds, Preview & Picks

  • When: Saturday, 8 PM ET (main card)
  • Where: Rogers Arena, Vancouver
  • Live Stream: ESPN+

Donald Cerrone (36-12) vs. Justin Gaethje (20-2)

Gaethje is -210 for this lightweight bout and Cerrone +170. It’s the second time the “Cowboy” Cerrone has fought for the lightweight title. In December 2015, he lost by first-round TKO via punches to Rafael dos Anjos. At 36, seems unlikely that Cerrone gets another shot.

He comes off a June 2019 loss to current No. 1 lightweight contender Tony Ferguson. It was stopped in Round 2 by the doctor. Cerrone’s right eye swelled shut after he made the mistake of blowing his bloody, battered nose. Fans threw things into the Octagon when the fight was ruled over because Cerrone could not continue. He was taken to a hospital afterward with what UFC President Dana White said was a broken right orbital bone. Ferguson was ahead on two of the three judges’ scorecards heading into the third round. Cerrone has been outlanded by his opponent in six of his past 10 fights, and he has absorbed 5.18 significant strikes per minute during the same stretch.

Cerrone competes in his 33rd UFC bout, tied with Jim Miller for the most appearances in company history. Cerrone’s 23 victories in UFC competition are most in company history. Cerrone’s 16 stoppage victories in UFC competition are most in company history. His seven knockout victories stemming from kicks in UFC competition are the most in company history. No one else has more than four.

Cerrone is a jiu-jitsu black belt under former UFC standout, Eliot Marshall. This explains his high submission rate of 47 percent and his having put away 17 opponents with chokes or joint locks.

Gaethje is off a first-round knockout of Edson Barboza. The bout started with both fighters exchanging brutal leg kicks and exchanging in the clinch and stand-up game. However, Barboza’s escape path took him right into the looping right hand of Gaethje to bring the fight to a close early. Gaethje is a former World Series of Fighting champion.

Through his first five bouts in the Octagon, he has landed 8.50 significant strikes per minute, which is not only the best rate among ranked lightweights, but also the best rate in UFC history. Gaethje lands 2.9 leg kicks per minute in UFC competition, the highest rate in company history. Gaethje is the only fighter in UFC history to land 100 or more significant strikes in each of his first three UFC fights.

However, Gaethje also takes a lot of punishment. In the UFC, he has absorbed a staggering 10.23 significant strikes per minute. This leaves him with a negative striking differential of -1.73. Gaethje’s two defeats were dealt by top-level competition, namely Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez, both of whom managed to knock Gaethje out.

This should be a war and no way it goes to the judges!

Glover Teixeira (29-7) vs. Nikita Krylov (26-6)

In this matchup of light heavyweights, Krylov is -125 and Teixeira -105. Teixeira is near the end of a good career, while Krylov is on the way up and ranked 13th in the division. Thanks to visa issues, Teixeira got a late start to his UFC career, but he quickly lived up to the hype as soon as he made his way to the USA, rattling off enough dominant wins to earn a shot at Jon Jones, which Teixeira lost.

Teixeira’s 10 stoppage victories in UFC light-heavyweight competition are tied with Jones for most in divisional history. Teixeira’s five submission victories in UFC light-heavyweight competition are tied with Jones for most in divisional history.Like Teixeira, Krylov has also fought for a number of promotions, fighting in his home country of Ukraine for his first 15 bouts. When Krylov made his pro debut on July 27, 2012, Teixeira was less than three months away from his UFC 153 showdown with fellow countryman Fabio Maldonado. That was Teixeira’s 21st professional fight.

Nikita Krylov is one of the favorites for UFC Fight Night 158.

Krylov has earned all of his 25 career victories by stoppage. He’s finished 20 of those wins in Round 1. Krylov’s four submission victories in UFC light heavyweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Jones (five) and Teixeira (five). Krylov’s 25-second knockout at UFC on FOX 10 marked the fastest finish stemming from a head kick in UFC history.

The man they call “The Miner” owns a total of 15 submission victories. In the UFC, Krylov has submitted Ovince St. Preux, Francimar Barroso, Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Stanislav Nedkov.

All six of Krylov’s losses have been stoppages. He has been tapped out five times and knocked out once. Teixeira, meanwhile, has been finished three times in his career.

Expert UFC Betting Picks

Gaethje by KO/TKO and Krylov by submission.

Rest of the Card

  • Todd Duffee vs. Jeff Hughes
  • Michel Pereira vs. Tristan Connelly
  • Uriah Hall vs. Antônio Carlos Júnior
  • Misha Cirkunov vs. Jimmy Crute

Preliminary Card (ESPN+)

  • Marcin Tybura vs. Augusto Sakai
  • Cole Smith vs. Miles Johns
  • Brad Katona vs. Hunter Azure
  • Chas Skelly vs. Jordan Griffin
  • Louis Smolka vs. Ryan McDonald
  • Kyle Prepolec vs. Austin Hubbard