2022 WNBA Finals Betting Analysis: Aces vs Sun Odds & Predictions

2022 WNBA Finals Betting Analysis: Aces vs Sun Odds & Predictions

The Las Vegas Aces moved one step closer to hoisting their first WNBA championship in franchise history, dating back to their origin in Utah and a stop in San Antonio. The Aces claimed a 67-64 victory and limited the Connecticut Sun to 11 fourth-quarter points.

Las Vegas was the highest scoring team in the regular season, and it was held to 40% from the field and 21% from the 3-point range. The Sun are the best defensive team against 3-pointers. It’s time to see how both teams stack up against each other so you can make your bets against their WNBA Championship Odds.


WNBA Finals Schedule, Predictions, and Odds to Win the 2022 Title


Finals schedule

Game 2 is set for 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday in Las Vegas. The Aces again are favored, this time by 4.5 points with an over/under of 164.5. The Moneyline favors Las Vegas at -215 while Connecticut is +175.

A higher-scoring game will likely benefit the Aces. However, the Sun have scored a lot of points in blowouts – 93 in a victory over Dallas and 104 in a win over Chicago – in the previous series. They were also the third highest scoring team in the league (85.8) points per game. But the Sun were also the second-best defensive team in the league while the Aces were ninth.

The remaining schedule includes Game 3 in Connecticut at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday. If necessary, Game 4 will be at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday in Connecticut. If the Sun force a Game 5, the championship will be settled at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday back in Las Vegas.


Outright odds

It seems likely the Las Vegas Aces go on to win the series. It is +191 odds on a series sweep, +260 on a 3-1 series win, and +275 on a 3-2 series win. Those odds are even higher for the Sun to win the next three and win the series in four games at +910 and only slightly lower to win in five at +850.

But the Sun did games four and five (which were on the road) to take the semifinal series to knock out the defending champion Chicago Sky.


Series history

The Aces took two of three games during the regular season. Their home victory was 87-81 on May 31. Connecticut won the rematch in Las Vegas, 97-90, on June 2. Then the Aces claimed the season series 91-83 in Connecticut.

Against the spread, the teams are even with the Sun covering +6 in Sunday’s Game 1. The over/under is also even with unders of 174.5 and 168 (in playoffs) hitting.


What to watch

The Sun need to get each player involved. They shot 38% from the field and were 31% on 3-pointers in Game 1, though they still had four players in double figures. Jonquel Jones, a former MVP, is key to battle with A’ja Wilson in the paint. Meanwhile, veteran DeWanna Bonner needs to be better than three points on 1 of 9 shooting if they’re going to win.

Similarly, Kelsey Plum was held to six points on 1 of 9 shooting. Both Bonner and Plum struggled from beyond the arc, and whoever heats up could determine the series.


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