Breaking Down the Cubs-Cardinals Rivalry: Expert Analysis and Picks

Breaking Down the Cubs-Cardinals Rivalry: Expert Analysis and Picks

It’s a very light schedule around the majors on Thursday with five games, but one of MLB’s best rivalries is renewed from Wrigley Field as the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Chicago Cubs — and it’s a terrific pitching matchup between Sonny Gray and Shota Imanaga.

 

St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline -102

Since Mother’s Day (May 12), St. Louis owns MLB’s third-best record behind Houston and Cleveland while being the only National League team with at least 40 wins since then. This set with the Cubs concludes the season series.

Trades

The Cardinals made a few trades ahead of the deadline, including landing reliever Shawn Armstrong on Tuesday from the Rays for outfielder Dylan Carlson – who once was one of the most touted prospects in the organization.

Armstrong was dominant in 2023 with a 1.38, 0.90 WHIP and 54:11 K:BB over 52 innings, but he has labored this season with 5.40 ERA in 38 appearances. He will work in middle relief.

The Cards also brought back outfielder Tommy Pham via trade with the White Sox and Pham hit a pinch-hit grand slam in his first plate appearance on Tuesday.

The former Cardinals 16th round draft pick in 2006 from Durango High School in Las Vegas went six years between home runs for the ‘Birds.

He became the first player in team history to hit a pinch-hit grand slam in his first game of the season with the Cardinals.

Sonny Gray on the Hill

It’s ace Gray (10-6) on the mound for the Cards on Thursday – although he has been a bit off lately.

Gray allowed five runs on seven hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision last Friday. He struck out seven during the extra-inning loss against Washington.

Gray struggled against the Nationals, giving up runs in three innings and maintaining a 6.67 ERA over five outings.

Despite this, he recorded a strong 35:5 K:BB ratio. In July, he allowed five home runs and hitters batted .330 against him, resulting in a 1.50 WHIP.

This rough patch raised Gray’s season ERA from 2.81 to 3.79 in 111.2 innings pitched.

Sonny’s second half last year carried him to a second-place finish in the American League Cy Young race while with the Twins, as he had a 2.29 ERA in 13 starts.

He’ll need to repeat that finish this year to help the Cardinals get a wild-card spot as they probably aren’t catching Milwaukee in the NL Central.

He has had a successful season against the Cubs, with a 1-1 record and 2.25 ERA in two starts.

His last game against them was on July 12 in St. Louis, where he allowed three runs on nine hits in a loss.

This will be Gray’s 14th career start against the Cubs and his fifth start at Wrigley Field.

Despite his success, his last appearance at Wrigley Field was in September 2021 as a member of the Reds.

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Chicago Cubs Moneyline -119

Cody Bellinger returned from the injured list for the Cubs, ending trade rumors. If he opts for free agency next year, potential suitors may stay away.

Paredes made his first All-Star team, excelling in walk, whiff, and strikeout percentages in the major leagues.

Imanaga has performed well overall, but in two losses he gave up seven and 10 runs.

His only game against the Cardinals on June 15 at Wrigley Field ended in a victory, with six strikeouts and one run allowed over seven innings.

He threw 103 pitches, limited St. Louis to four baserunners, induced 14 swinging strikes, mainly with his splitter/sweeper combo.

Mark Leiter Jr

The Cubs did weaken their bullpen on Tuesday when Leiter Jr. was traded on Tuesday to the Yankees.

Leiter had a 5.34 ERA in 32 outings before he was sidelined with a strained forearm June 23.

In seven games since his return, he had logged 7⅔ scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts to zero walks.

Since June 27, Chicago’s bullpen owns an MLB-best 1.20 ERA. Since allowing eight runs in a three-game stretch from June 11-17, Neris owns a 0.82 ERA.

Since his Cubs debut June 28, Jorge López has posted a 0.73 ERA in 10 games.

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