2024 NFL Conference Championship QB Predictions

When talking about which teams are likely to win the Super Bowl, the conversation tends to turn to the quarterbacks of each team. MyBookie Sportsbook 2024 NFL Conference Championships Quarterback Matchups

The biggest question is whether those QBs are deserving of elite status or not. That brings us nicely to the topic of this piece, which is comparing the 4 QBs that are leading their respective teams into the Conference Championship Games this weekend.

Chiefs at Ravens
Patrick Mahomes Vs Lamar Jackson

I think it is absolutely fair to say that Patrick Mahomes is very much in the elite category, as he is an MVP and a championship winner. Lamar Jackson will certainly have his fans, too, but his struggles in the postseason make it harder to make the case for him being elite. Still, he might be on track to change all that this season, but how do these guys match up? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Some would consider this season to be less than spectacular for Mahomes, but he has become a victim of the incredibly high bar that he has set in his time in the NFL. In the regular season, Mahomes threw for 4,183 yards and 27 TD, but it was his 14 INTs that had people looking at his performance as a down year. His completion percentage was 67.2 and his rating was 92.6.

It’s interesting to compare the regular season stats with what Mahomes has done in the playoffs this year, so let’s do that, He did see his completion percentage drop to 62.5, but that may be down to protecting the football instead of trying to make tough passes. He has thrown 3 TD versus 0 INT, which is an improvement, and his rating moved up to 100.8.

Jackson can destroy with his arm and his legs, which makes comparing stats a little tougher. In the regular season, Jackson threw for 3.678 yards with 24 TD and 7 INT, with a rating of 102.7. He also added over 850 yards and 5 TDs on the ground. His completion percentage was 67.2.

The knock on Jackson has been that his gaudy regular season numbers have not carried over into the postseason, but might this be the year when that changes? He was certainly outstanding in the playoff game against the Texans, finishing that with a completion percentage of 72.7 and a rating of 121.8, One great postseason game does not wash away what came before, but it helps to prove that his game might be evolving for the better.

This is a tough one for me given that these players are so very different, but taking it all into account, I would have to give the edge to Mahomes in this matchup.

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NFC Championship Game: Lions at 49ers
Jared Goff Vs Brock Purdy

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
When: Sunday, January 28, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: FOX

This matchup is a little more intriguing, mostly because this is largely uncharted territory for both of these players. Yes, Goff did go to the Super Bowl back in 2018 and has 5 playoff wins to his name, while Purdy went to the Conference Championship Game at his first time of asking last season, but neither player has really had what can be defined as long-term postseason success. Let’s break down their numbers to see how these two QBs match up.

It was very much a return to form for Goff this season, thanks in large part to the fact that the Lions now have a solid supporting cast for him to work with. Goff threw for 4,575 yards this season, which had him 2nd in the league, while throwing 30 TD versus 12 INT. His completion percentage was 67.3 and he had a rating of 97.9 over the course of the regular season, all of which are very good numbers.

Getting to the playoffs was huge for the Lions, but they don’t seem content to rest on their laurels, winning 2 more games to get to this point. Goff has seen his numbers improve over those 2 postseason wins, seeing his completion percentage improve to 74.3, while his rating moved up to 111.8. Over the 2 postseason games, he threw for 3 TD and 0 INT, so this is a player in great form.

Goff has turned the clock back this season and the Lions are very much on a high, but will that continue against Purdy and the 49ers?

Purdy was forced into the starting position last season after the injury bug hit the QB room in San Francisco. No one really expected much, but Purdy came in and looked like a veteran QB, taking his team all the way to the NFC Conference Championship Game. This season, he threw for 4,280 yards, with 31 TD versus just 11 INT. His completion percentage was 69.4 and he ended the regular season with an average rating of 113.

Purdy saw those numbers dip a little in his lone playoff game this season, as he was put to the test in a big way versus the Packers. His completion percentage in that game was just 59.0, while he ended with an 86.7 rating. Purdy tossed 1 TD pass versus the Packers, which steering clear of INTs.

This is the second straight trip to the Conference Championship Game for Purdy, but can he take it one step further this time around?

For me, this is a bit of a coin flip, as these are two very good teams and two very solid QBs. If pressed, my money would be on Brock Purdy.