The first full week of the NFL preseason gets started on Wednesday night, but we are going to jump ahead a day to take a look at the meeting between the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills. As is always the case with preseason games, especially in Week 1, we are not going to see a whole lot of starters taking the field. This is where we get a better look at the depth guys on each team, which might just give us a little insight into how good each team may be moving forward.
For the purposes of the preseason, I am going to take a little bit of a different approach to previewing games, as we really don’t know what to expect from the majority of guys taking the field. I am going to look at the betting stats of each team over the last 3 seasons to see if we can come up with some winning picks.
The Buffalo Bills have been the model of mediocrity over the past 3 seasons, going 24-24 SU during that stretch. Buffalo were better at home, going 13-10, and they also performed adequately as the underdog, going 13-12. As a home underdog, Buffalo went 4-3 over the past 3 seasons.
Buffalo were not as impressive ATS during this same period, and were just 23-24-1 over the past 3 seasons. They were just 11-12-0 as the home team, but did have a winning 4-3-0 record as the home underdog. Still not really convincing enough for things to swing in their favor here.
At 23-25-0, the Buffalo Bills are right in the middle of the pack, which they seem to be with every single stat, betting or otherwise. The OVER was more likely when the Bills played at home, as they posted a 13-10-0 record over the last 3 years, and that included a 4-3-0 record as a home underdog.
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For the purposes of the preseason, I am going to take a little bit of a different approach to previewing games, as we really don’t know what to expect from the majority of guys taking the field. I am going to look at the betting stats of each team over the last 3 seasons to see if we can come up with some winning picks.
NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds Minnesota Vikings Vs Buffalo Bills
When: Thursday, August 10 at 7 PM EST Where: New Era Field, Buffalo TV: NFL Network Radio: Sirius XM Radio NFL Preseason Odds:NFL Preseason Straight Up Stats
Over the last 3 seasons, the Vikings have compiled a 26-23 record, and were 10-14 on the road. The SU odds have not yet been posted, but given that the Vikings are a 1-point favorite, we can assume that they will have a slight edge in the SU odds. Things look good for the Vikings here, as they were 16-7 as the favorite over the past 3 seasons, although just 3-3 as a road favorite.The Buffalo Bills have been the model of mediocrity over the past 3 seasons, going 24-24 SU during that stretch. Buffalo were better at home, going 13-10, and they also performed adequately as the underdog, going 13-12. As a home underdog, Buffalo went 4-3 over the past 3 seasons.
NFL Preseason Point Spread Stats
Minnesota have the best record ATS in the NFL over the past 3 seasons, going 33-16-0 during that stretch. They were particularly good on the road, going 15-9-0, although just 3-3-0 as a road favorite. These are some impressive numbers, especially when you consider that the spread for this game is set at just a single point.
Buffalo were not as impressive ATS during this same period, and were just 23-24-1 over the past 3 seasons. They were just 11-12-0 as the home team, but did have a winning 4-3-0 record as the home underdog. Still not really convincing enough for things to swing in their favor here.
OVER/UNDER Stats
In recent years, the Minnesota Vikings have been a team that has lived or died by how well their defense has played, and that is reflected in their O/U stats. The Vikings are 17-31-1 during the past 3 seasons and 7-16-1 on the road. They are also just 2-4-0 O/U as a road favorite, all of which suggests that they keep things close and tight.At 23-25-0, the Buffalo Bills are right in the middle of the pack, which they seem to be with every single stat, betting or otherwise. The OVER was more likely when the Bills played at home, as they posted a 13-10-0 record over the last 3 years, and that included a 4-3-0 record as a home underdog.
NFL Week 1 Preseason Odds Eagles vs Packers
NFL Preseason Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction
The Vikings come into this one as a modest 1-point favorite, with the OVER/UNDER set at 36.5. The last two meetings between these teams delivered a combined point total of 33 and 36 point, respectively, which suggests that the UNDER might well be a solid bet. It was the Bills who won both of those games, but I am not so sure that they are going to come away with the victory in this one. This is likely going to come down to a field goal in what I believe will be a low-scoring affair.MINNESOTA VIKINGS TEAM STATISTICS
Offensive total yards: 315.06 Average Score For: 20.44 Offensive rush yards: 75.31 Defensive total yards: 314.88 Offensive passing yards: 239.75 Defensive rush yards: 106.94 Average Score Against: 19.19 Defensive passing yards: 207.94BUFFALO BILLS TEAM STATISTICS
Offensive total yards: 354.00 Average Score For: 24.94 Offensive rush yards: 164.31 Defensive total yards: 357.00 Offensive passing yards: 189.69 Defensive rush yards: 134.75 Average Score Against: 23.62 Defensive passing yards: 222.25Minnesota Vikings 17 Buffalo Bills 14
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