#10 Baylor vs #20 Texas NCAA College Basketball Expert Picks

#10 Baylor vs #20 Texas | NCAA College Basketball Expert Picks

Important game in the Big 12 on Monday night as No. 10 Baylor looks to keep its regular-season conference title hopes alive with a win at No. 20 Texas. The Bears are very short favorites on the NCAAB odds.

How to Bet Baylor at Texas NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

  • When: Monday, 9 PM ET
  • Where: Frank Erwin Center
  • TV: ESPN
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • Opening NCAAB Lines: Baylor -1 (total 135.5)

Last Meeting

Baylor routed visiting Texas 80-63 on Feb. 12. Adam Flagler had 20 points with four 3-pointers. Flagler made his first five shots, including three 3s, while scoring 13 points in the first half when Baylor had two huge spurts — first a 12-0 run, and later a stretch of 13 consecutive points. James Akinjo added 15 points with seven assists and six rebounds for the Bears. Flo Thamba, forced into extended minutes after Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua went down injured, had 12 points and 11 rebounds in a career-high 30 minutes. Tchamwa Tchatchoua was lost for the season that night.  Andrew Jones had 11 points for the Longhorns, their most lopsided loss in coach Chris Beard’s first season.

Texas leads the all-time series 163-95.

Why Bet on Baylor?

Baylor (24-5) comes off a huge 80-70 home win over No. 5 Kansas on Saturday and should move up a few spots in Monday’s AP Top 25. The Bears didn’t take a lead until the opening minute after halftime, and went ahead to stay at 65-63 on Flo Thamba’s jumper with 4:07 left. That came after Ochai Agbaji, who had 27 points for Kansas, made a tying 3-pointer. Thamba finished with a career-high 18 points.

Baylor beat Kansas at its own game, outscoring the Jayhawks in fast-break points, 22-7. While the Bears forced a season-low five turnovers, snapping a streak of 37-straight games with 10-plus turnovers, they won a tight rebounding battle, 40-38.

“That’s what I like about our team,” Thamba said. “We have different pieces. I can come in and be more of a presence at center. And (Jeremy Sochan) can come in and be more of a ballhandler and get easy buckets. I just love our team and the different matchups we have.”

Adam Flagler and James Akinjo scored 13 and 12 points, respectively, while Matthew Mayer finished one point shy of his first double-double with nine points and a career-high 12 boards. Kansas could not keep things moving offensively in the second half. The Jayhawks shot an inconsistent 29% from the field in the second and 34% overall on the night.

BU has reached double-digit Big 12 wins for the 7th time in the last 8 seasons. BU had two seasons with double-digit Big 12 wins in the league’s previous 18 seasons (2010 & 2012). BU has 10+ conference wins for a 9th time in the last 12 seasons after doing so 8 times in 103 years.

Baylor ranks top-25 nationally in scoring margin (8th, +14.0), steals (14th, 9.2), assists (22nd, 16.3), offensive rebounds (16th, 12.9), turnovers forced (18th, 16.6) and turnover margin (23rd, +3.6). BU ranks 6th nationally in KenPom’s offensive rebound pct (36.9), its 9th-straight year ranked top-10. Over the last 3 seasons, Baylor is 63-4 when leading at the half and 77-6 when taking a 2nd-half lead. Baylor is 93-7 when leading at halftime over the last 5 seasons (63-4 over last 3 seasons, 24-0 last season).

Why Bet on Texas?

The Horns (21-8) won 82-81 at West Virginia on Saturday. Texas trailed by 10 midway through the second half, but it rallied in time to earn its second straight win and improve to 4-6 on the road. West Virginia was in position to post a big win. But Texas went ahead to stay on a 3-pointer by Jase Febres with 4:38 remaining.

“We’re up 10, and we do the dumbest things,” West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said. “We’ve got guys trying to make plays that have no business trying to make plays. You can’t keep making the same mistakes. We forced things that just weren’t there.”

Timmy Allen had a season-high 26 points and 10 rebounds while Febres added a season-best 14 points. Allen converted 7-of-9 field goals and a season-best 12-of-16 free throws while adding three assists, two blocks and one steal in 36 minutes. He had 17 points (4-4 FG, 9-12 FT), seven boards and all three of his assists in the second half while playing all 20 minutes. Marcus Carr registered 15 points while hitting 6-of-6 field goals (1-of-1 three) and 2-of-3 free throws in 17 minutes. Carr, who played just three minutes in the first half due to foul trouble, had 11 of his 15 points in the second half.

Baylor is UT’s most common opponent in program history. Texas and Baylor have competed in the same conference since 1915 (Southwest Conference and Big 12). Th e only season Texas and Baylor did not meet since 1906 was in 1908, when the Longhorns did not field a team. Texas is 89-33 all-time against Baylor in games played in Austin during the series.

The Longhorns are 16-2 in home games (including the 73-57 win over Sam Houston in Gregory Gym on Nov. 29) and sport an impressive +17.8 scoring margin (69.8-52.0). Texas has posted a 3-1 record against AP Top 25 opponents at home this year. Th e Longhorns have wins against No. 18 Tennessee (52-51), No. 20 Iowa State (63-41) and No. 8 Kansas (79-76). Defensively, Texas has held 14 of its 18 opponents at home below 60 points, including 11 opponents to 52 points or below.

Game Trends

  • Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Longhorns are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • Road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Texas 75, Baylor 73
 
 

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