2025 Orange Bowl Pick: Notre Dame vs Penn State Odds to Win the Match

As we break down this Orange Bowl pick, the College Football Playoff Semifinal between #7 Notre Dame and #6 Penn State promises to be a thrilling defensive showdown, with both teams looking to secure a spot in the National Championship game.

Betting Orange Bowl Pick: Notre Dame vs Penn State Odds to Win the Match
Orange Bowl Showdown: A Bettor’s Guide to the Notre Dame vs. Penn State Matchup

2024 NCAA Division I FBS Football Season | 155th season of college football in the United States
NCAAF Bowls: Saturday, December 14th, 2024 – Monday, January 20th, 2025

Betting College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl Winning Pick

Two of the top defensive teams in all of college football throw down in the first College Football Playoff Semifinal on Thursday at the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens when 7 Notre Dame takes on 6 Penn State.

Both the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have earned their way to this semifinal by winning their first two CFP matchups.

The Irish went to New Orleans and blasted Georgia out of the Superdome in their last.

2025 Orange Bowl: 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) vs 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2)
Thursday, January 9th at 7:30 pm ET – ESPN | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

ATS Odds: Notre Dame -2
SU Odds: Penn State +106 / Notre Dame -130
Over/Under Odds: 45

Writer’s Picks for the Orange Bowl Game

Reasons to Bet Notre Dame Versus Penn State

The Irish defense has been one of the top units in college football this season.

Notre Dame’s one loss this season came against a team they were favored to beat by 20, the Northern Illinois Huskies.

In past seasons, the loss would have sent Notre Dame to a lower level bowl because the Selection Committee would have disqualified the Irish from the playoffs.

Not this season. Since the upset loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has rolled behind a fearsome defense.

The D allowed a single team to score 30 or more points, USC which scored 35 in a 49-35 ND victory in Notre Dame’s final matchup of the season.

Louisville put up 24 in a loss to the Irish and that’s it.

Notre Dame’s defense allowed two teams to score 20 points or more all season.

Georgia got 10 and high flying Indiana scored 17.

Irish Quarterback Riley Leonard Doesn’t Make Mistakes

Duke transfer Riley Leonard didn’t post awesome highlights this season but he did enough to help the Irish get to the College Football Playoff.

Leonard did so by not making mistakes.

The former standout at Durham threw 6 interceptions. That’s it.

He rarely made a bad play and instead dropped down to his outlet receiver or threw the ball away on passing downs.

Leonard’s ability to stay out of trouble is going to serve him well in this game because the Irish face a defense that’s close to their level.

If Leonard keeps his cool, which he’s done in every game up to this point, Notre Dame can win and cover.

The Irish are Patient on Both Sides of the Ball

Notre Dame is one of the most patient teams in college football.

The Irish believe in playing football the way the Houston Cougars play hoops, keep opposing teams possessions low by using the shot clock.

The Irish will use all of the 35 second play clock to their advantage when they have the ball.

If Notre Dame can get 3.5 yards per play, they’d be happy because that means that Penn State, another slow moving offense, won’t get enough chances to keep pace with Notre Dame on the scoreboard.

Expect a snail’s pace of a game.

Reasons to bet Penn State versus Notre Dame

The Nittany Lions played in the nation’s toughest conference

Is there any doubt that the best conference in college football this season was the Big Ten?

Ohio State and Penn State are in the College Football Semifinals.

Oregon ranked first all season and lost to the Buckeyes in their CFP quarterfinals matchup.

Indiana is another Big Ten team that made the College Football Playoff.

What it means is that Penn State is battle tested against much better teams than Notre Dame.

For sure, the Nittany Lions struggled against their top two Big Ten opponents, Ohio State and Oregon, but the Lions handled USC, Wisconsin, and Illinois and the loss to the Buckeyes was by 7.

Penn State’s defense held Ohio State to 20 points and Boise State to 14

As well as Notre Dame’s defense played against Georgia we have to note that the Irish was up against a Georgia team without starting quarterback Carson Beck.

Some believe Beck is the best QB prospect in April’s draft.

Even if he isn’t, facing a second string QB does wonders for a defense’s confidence.

Penn State had to play against Will Howard and Ohio State and ended up holding the Buckeyes to 20 points in a 20-13 loss.

Versus Boise State, the Lions had to stop Ashton Jeanty.

Although the Broncos tried, the Penn State D kept Jeanty to less than 4 yards per carry.

Penn State is going to have an easier time versus a Notre Dame offense that isn’t nearly as electric as Ohio State’s.

QB Drew Allar threw 24 TDs to 7 picks this season

2024 Drew Allar is a much better player than 2023 Drew Allar.

The Penn State quarterback stepped up his game this season when throwing for 24 TDs and tossing a low 7 interceptions.

Again, we must note that Penn State played in the toughest conference in college football and Allar’s stats improved from 2023 to 2024 by leaps and bounds.

Versus Boise State, Allar threw for 171 yards and 3 TDs.

He often makes the right choice and rarely forces a bad pass.

Betting c Final Pick: Notre Dame versus Penn State Line

The odds continue to go Notre Dame’s way.

The Irish defense is impressing both casual college football bettors and, so far at least, the pros.

But that will change in the next couple of days.

Don’t be surprised that when Abdul Carter announces he is playing in this game, the line flips to favor the Nittany Lions.

Penn State is the better overall team that has had to face much tougher opponents than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Because of that, Penn State offers an overlay moneyline at +108 to win this straight up.

Pounce on the ML in what should be an under game because neither team is going to push the envelope.

NCAAF Bowl SU Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions +108
NCAAF Bowl Total Pick: Under 46.5

Bet the NCAAF Bowls | College Football Live Betting MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

BREAKING: Penn State pass rusher Abdul Carter has opted out of the Orange Bowl. This marks the first time a player has opted out of a CFP game. Sad news for College Football fans & college sports as a whole. pic.twitter.com/qdNMes0K7p

— Brady Montana (@BradyMontanaOn3) January 6, 2025

MyBookie offers the current College Football betting lines for the season to win.

Test Your NCAAF Picks for the College Football Playoff Games with MyBookie

Don’t miss out on the action—check out the betting college bowl picks and sign up for an account today to get in on the excitement!

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

MyBookie Orange Bowl Odds
MyBookie Odds for the Games

MyBookie College Football

---

Updated College Football Betting Odds | Online Betting Sportsbook

mybookie App Download App

Download Remind me later