Dallas vs Utah, Game 6 NBA Expert Betting Analysis

Dallas vs Utah, Game 6 |NBA Expert Betting Analysis

Utah Jazz All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell is banged up but expected to play Thursday in Game 6 of the Western Conference playoff series vs. Dallas. The Jazz are down 3-2 and short home favorites on the NBA odds.

How to Bet Mavericks at Jazz NBA Odds & TV Info

  • When: Thursday, 10 PM ET
  • Where: Vivint Arena
  • TV: TNT
  • Stream: TNT app
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • NBA Odds: Jazz -1 (total 209.5)

Why Bet on Dallas?

The Mavericks took Game 5 in a complete rout, 102-77. marked the first time the Mavericks won a playoff game without trailing at any point since they recorded a 127-114 wire-to-wire win over the L.A. Clippers in Game 2 of their 2020 first round playoff series played in the bubble.

Though he had a slow start with just two first-quarter points Luka Dončić was the best player on the court Monday night. Particularly in the third quarter, when he had 19 of his 33 points and the Mavericks stashed the game away.  Luka hit back-to-back 3-pointers in the third quarter and finished the third quarter with 19 points, while the entire Jazz team scored 19 in the quarter. Luka was also able to get some rest in the fourth quarter. He added 13 rebounds and five turnovers.

“He had some great looks in the first half,” Coach Jason Kidd said. “And then he got going in the third. Luka, for a second game back, looks like he’s been playing the whole series. His conditioning, his effort on the defensive end, rebounding the ball, he’s one of the best for us and he did that for us.”

It the Mavericks’ defense that was the star of this night. The Jazz couldn’t make shots and a lot of it was because the Mavericks harassed them at every turn.

“We did a good job tonight as a team, holding a great offensive team to 77 points,” said Dorian Finney-Smith, who had 13 points, five rebounds and four assists. “If we do that, no matter if we make shots or not, we’re going to have a great chance to win.”

Utah made only three of 30 3-pointers, and shot only 37.7 percent for the game. The Mavericks were up 93-65 with 4:41 to go.  The Jazz scored 19 points or less in each of the first three quarters and only 22 in the fourth quarter that was primarily garbage time.

The Mavericks defeated the Jazz by 25 in Game 5 after the first four games of the series were all decided by eight-or-fewer points. The Mavericks will attempt to close out the series in six and advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since the team’s title year in 2011. Dallas enters Game 6 with an all-time record of 17-12 (.586) in closeout games, but has dropped its most recent three.

Why Bet on Utah?

Frankly, the Jazz can only play better than they did in Game 5 when they were 3-for-30 from deep, the worst performance in NBA playoff history and worst in Jazz history overall with a minimum of 20 attempts. With the Jazz down 28 and with 4 minutes to go, Quin Snyder still had his starters in and Donovan Mitchell came out hobbling due to injury.

An MRI on Mitchell’s hamstring was negative and Mitchell said he is dealing with some soreness due to the bilateral quadriceps contusion. He will play in Game 6. Mitchell was held to nine points on 4-of-15 shooting with four turnovers in the Game 5 loss. He is averaging 26.0 points per game in the series, but he’s shooting only 37.9% from the floor and 19.5% from 3-point range.

Jordan Clarkson hit 9-of-15 shots for a team-high 20 points in Game 5. Only Clarkson and Rudy Gobert (17 points, 11 rebounds) scored in double figures.

“It’s not like we didn’t compete. … We play to win,” said postgame. “We did miss shots, but I don’t want to just point to ‘bad shooting night.’ Sometimes they’re good looks and you take them, and sometimes it requires more. … Continuous movement and attacking and passing is what we require.”

The Jazz’s defense has let them down time and time again against the Mavericks in this series. Their stars haven’t had the kind of dominating performances they’ve had in previous playoffs. Their role players can’t carry them.

Utah could blow up the roster with a loss in Game 6. The Jazz are the fourth-winningest team in the NBA the last five seasons. The Milwaukee Bucks lead the way with 257 wins, followed by the Philadelphia 76ers with 246, the Toronto Raptors with 245, the Jazz with 243 and the Denver Nuggets with 241. But during that same five-year period, the Jazz rank only 12th in playoff wins, with 18 (against 16 losses).

This marks the sixth consecutive year they have advanced to the playoffs, but they’ve never gotten past the second round. If they lose another game to the Mavericks, they will check out in the first round for the third time in four years.

Game Trends

  • Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
  • Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
  • Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
  • Jazz are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.
  • Jazz are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Expert Prediction

  • Mavericks 105, Jazz 103
 
 

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