The dust has settled from the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, and all eyes are on the grueling Belmont Stakes. With betting Belmont Stakes odds released, a familiar name sits atop the board: Chad Brown’s impressive colt, Sierra Leone. But is he a lock, or is there more to the story?
Odds for the 2024 Belmont Stakes have landed and as expected Chad Brown trained Sierra Leone is the future book favorite. The Kentucky Derby second place finisher is +175 to beat rivals Fierceness, Derby winner Mystik Dan, and Preakness winner Seize the Grey in the Belmont.
Is Sierra Leone a safe pick to win it all or key exotic plays at Saratoga on June 8? Check out Belmont Stakes odds for Sierra Leone along with analysis.
Is Sierra Leone a Safe Belmont Stakes Pick? | MyBookie Horse Racing Betting Preview for the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown
Future Book – Belmont Stakes Favorite
Sierra Leone +175
Why Sierra Leone is a safe Belmont Stakes pick
In five lifetime races, Sierra Leone has never finished worse than second. The Gun Runner sired colt won the Grade 2 Risen Star and then the Grade 1 Bluegrass before losing the Kentucky Derby by a nose.
Horseplayers realize that when it comes to Sierra Leone, Mystik Dan, and the Kentucky Derby, the Brown trainee had the much tougher trip. Sierra had to weave his way through a crowded Derby field. So losing by a nose to Mystik Dan was quite an accomplishment.
Not only that, but the Belmont field will be much smaller than the Derby field, which means new jockey Flavien Prat won’t have to do as much. Also, the distance is 1 ¼ miles because the race happens at Saratoga and Sierra Leone has proven capable at 1 ¼ miles.
Why Sierra Leone isn’t a safe Belmont Stakes pick
Although Sierra Leone has never finished off the board in five lifetime races, the second place Derby finisher has lost 2-of-5. The Derby set up perfectly for Sierra Leone to get the nose down first.
But the horse didn’t get it done. A loss is a loss just like a win is a win. Also, the field, although small, is coming up tough. Both Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan will run. So will Peter Pan winner Antiquarian.
Todd Pletcher may also run Fierceness and Mindframe. Batten Down, a Bill Mott trained runner, will enter the gate and so will quality closer Honor Marie. Kentucky Oaks winner Thorpedo Anna is also a possibility.
Final Analysis: Seirra Leone a safe or unsafe Belmont Stakes pick?
Sierra Leone is an unsafe Belmont Stakes pick to win the race outright. The three year old has the quality to get it done, but the Belmont field, although smaller than the Derby field, is loaded with surging horses.
Mindframe, Batten Down, Thorpedo Anna, and Antiquarian will all enter the Belmont after wins. So betting on Sierra Leone to win at low odds may not be wise.
However, using Sierra Leone as the key horse in exotic plays is a good move. The Brown runner has never finished worse than second. So using Sierra Leone as the key horse in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas could yield positive results.
To Win: No
To Finish in the Top Three: Yes
Betting Sierra Leone to Win
2024 Wins: 67% / $1,821,250 earnings
Dark Bay or Brown Colt | March 30th, 2021 in Kentucky by Gun Runner out of Heavenly Love
2024 Test of Champions
Betting Lines to Win Belmont Stakes
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Race
2024 Belmont Stakes Field: Post Positions, Betting Odds, Jockeys, Trainers
| Post | Horse | Belmont Stakess | Morning Lines | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tapit Shoes | 16-1 | 20-1 | Brad Cox | Jose Ortiz |
| 2 | Tapit Trice | 6 -1 | 3-1 | Todd Pletcher | Luis Saez |
| 3 | Arcangelo | 7-1 | 8-1 | Jena Antonucci | Javier Castellano |
| 4 | National Treasure | 9-2 | 5-1 | Bob Baffert | John Velazquez |
| 5 | Il Miracolo | 19-1 | 30-1 | Antonio Sano | Marcos Menesses |
| 6 | Forte | 5-2 | 5-2 | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr |
| 7 | Hit Show | 8-1 | 10-1 | Brad Cox | Manny Franco |
| 8 | Angel of Empire | 7-2 | 7-2 | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat |
| 9 | Red Route One | 13-1 | 15-1 | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario |
Racing Lines for Belmont Stakes
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