2024 Kentucky Derby Picks: Run for the Roses

Two massive Kentucky Derby preps happened this past Saturday. Winners of both races affected Kentucky Derby Futures. They also affected our early Kentucky Derby picks.

Keep reading for more information, Kentucky Derby betting lines, analysis, and our adjusted picks for this year’s Run for the Roses.

2024 Current Kentucky Derby Odds: Road to The Roses | MyBookie Horse Racing Preview: Build up that Exacta for the Races

2024 Kentucky Derby | 150th edition of Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Odds News

Derby ineligible Muth wins the Arkansas Derby.

Bob Baffert trained Muth rolled by Brad Cox trained Timberlake in the stretch to win the Arkansas Derby. Muth showed the type of turn of foot that would make him a solid contender to win the roses on May 4.

However, because Baffert’s ban has extended to 2024, Muth is ineligible to run at Churchill Downs. Timberlake showed heart and guts, but what out of his element after contesting the pace on the inside. Once jockey Flavien Prat realized he had no chance of sticking with Muth, Prat held off from whipping his ride, which is why Muth finished a distant fourth.

To bad we won’t see Muth in Louisville. The horse is as quality of a three year old as you’re going to find.

Fierceness dominates the Florida Derby. Now the outright +450 chalk.

Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velasquez wasted no time on Saturday. Fierceness, the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner, bombed in his first Derby prep, the Holy Bull. So on Saturday, Johnny V took Fierceness to front.

The colt never looked back. Sure, once can say he got an easy trip. But brilliance is brilliance and Fierceness dominated his foes, beating Catalytic by what looked to be 15 lengths. Grand Mo the First finished far back in third.

Can Fierceness carry his speed to Kentucky? He should. The Derby can be chalky depending on how talented the field is. Fierceness will be the most talented of any runner in the field because Muth, and every other Baffert horse, must sit out the Run for the Roses.

Updated Kentucky Derby Picks

Win: Fierceness +450

Yes, +450 are low odds for a Derby winner. But on Derby Day, unless some other runner impresses as much, Fierceness will be a 2-to-1 or 8-to-5 choice. Also, Todd Pletcher trains his three year olds to win the Derby.

If they don’t win the Derby, he sits them out of the Preakness and then usually runs them in the Belmont. So Fierceness should be all systems go in May.

Place: Catching Freedom +1000

The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win impresses big time. Brad Cox is going to train Catching Freedom up to the Derby. He has the right style if he pace is hot.

Fierceness doesn’t like pressure, which is why Johnny V will go for the lead on the first Saturday in May. If a rabbit presses Fierceness, then the Pletcher might throw in the towel, which means Catching Freedom could roll to the finish line first from the back of the pack.

Show: Timberlake +1600

Christian Torres gave Timberlake the trip the horse desires, laying off the speed and then making a run. Flavien Prat put Timberlake on the lead with Muth in the Arkansas Derby. There was no way Timberlake was going to go head-to-head with Muth and have enough late to get to the wire first.

If Cox goes back to Torres for the Derby, or if Prat changes tactics, this one, for sure, will be in the mix. To be clear, Prat made the right decision. If no horse goes with Muth, the Baffert runner gets away with easy fractions and wins the Arkansas Derby even more easily than it did. Muth won’t be in the Kentucky Derby, though, and a horse will, or should, challenge Fierceness early, which means Timberlake gets a great trip.

Fourth: Forever Young +800

Forever Young won the UAE Derby. Horses coming from Meydan to run in the Kentucky Derby don’t often perform well, but Forever Young went wide throughout and then had enough to get by front runner Audubon in the stretch.

The Japanese trained runner could for sure surprise on Derby Day. The odds will go up on Forever Young, though. So it might be best to wait to put money behind this contender if you believe you can get a better price after the other Derby preps.

Longshots
Betting Pick: Catching Freedom and Mystik Dan | Current Kentucky Derby Odds MyBookie Betting Lines for the Race

Stay tuned for current Kentucky Derby odds for the horses in this year’s race.

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