Most expect this year’s Kentucky Derby winner to be one of two horses. Morning line favorite Fierceness is the fastest equine in the race. The Todd Pletcher runner can also be a head case, which is why many horseplayers have jumped on the second choice, cool and collected Sierra Leone. Both Sierra Leone and Fierceness figure in this year’s exacta, trifecta, and superfecta plays.
Check out Kentucky Derby odds, analysis, and the 2024 Derby exacta, tri, and super.
2024 Kentucky Derby Odds for Trifecta, Superfecta & Exacta: Betting Picks and Analysis | MyBookie Horse Racing Betting Preview
Exacta Bet
Key Horse: Fierceness
Use: Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Just a Touch, Catching Freedom, Resilience
Analysis: This feels like a chalk Derby. If Bob Baffert’s Muth had a chance to enter, we wouldn’t feel inclined to make Fierceness the key horse, but because Muth, a front runner like Fierceness, is on the sidelines, the Pletcher monster should get an easy lead.
The key is what Forever Young and Just a Touch do. Both the UAE Derby winner, Forever Young, and the Bluegrass second place finisher, that’s Just a Touch, can run close to the lead. If neither goes all in early against Fierceness, though, the Florida Derby winner goes gate to wire.
The bottom of the exacta uses figure horses. Catching Freedom and Sierra Leone are the two best closers. Resilience is the wild card. If Resilience takes a forward step, a top two finish is not out of the question.
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Trifecta Bet
Key Horse: Fierceness
Second Slot: Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Just a Touch, Resilience
Third Slot: Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Just a Touch, Resilience, Catching Freedom
Analysis: We’re using Resilience in the second slot instead of Catching Freedom. The idea is that Resilience, which may go off at around 30-to-1, boosts the trifecta payout even if Sierra Leone finishes third.
Riding Fierceness on top makes sense. The other horse to use if you don’t believe in the chalk is Sierra Leone. The Chad Brown trained horse is the classiest equine in the field.
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Superfecta Bet
Key Horse: Fierceness, Sierra Leone
Second Slot: Sierra Leone, Fierceness
Third Slot: Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Forever Young, Just a Touch, Resilience
Fourth Slot: Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Forever Young, Just a Touch, Catching Freedom, Resilience
Analysis: The idea with this year’s Kentucky Derby play is to get coverage with the two best horses. So keep the investment low, play Fierceness and Sierra Leone in the top two spots, and then roll the dice on third and fourth.
Doing so could yield a nice payout because Resilience and Catching Freedom project to offer overlay odds. Forever Young or Just a Touch could finish in the second slot, which would kill our super, but the idea of the superfecta is go for a lottery type ticket, which means we don’t want to spend too much money. This ticket won’t cost much because we’ve got two horses in the top two slots.
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