Kentucky Derby odds are out and the horses that most players though would end up the morning line chalks are the ML favorites. Based on odds, Zandon should win Saturday’s race, followed by Epicenter in second. Then Messier should finish third followed by Mo Donegal in fourth. Check out more information on the top four morning line choices as well as whether their Kentucky Derby Odds make them an overlay or underlay.
Horse Racing Odds and Picks for the Kentucky Derby Betting Favorites
2022 Kentucky Derby
- When: Saturday, May 7
- Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
- TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock
Top 4 Morning Line Choices to Win the Kentucky Derby
- Favorite: 10-Zandon 3/1
After showing a brilliant turn of foot to win the Bluegrass Stakes, Zandon most definitely deserved to be the morning line favorite. But the Upstart sired and Chad Brown trained runner has yet to run as fast either via Brisnet or Beyer speed ratings as Mo Donegal or 12-to-1 shot Taiba.
So does that mean Zandon won’t win the Derby? Absolutely not. He’s a talented horse. So he can win the roses for sure. But the odds make him unplayable. 3-to-1 is just too short to back any horse to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.
- Second Choice: 3-Epicenter 7/2
Epicenter offers better odds and he did run faster than Zandon to win the Louisiana Derby. But the Steve Asmussen trainee may have prepped in the wrong race.
Grindstone is the only Louisiana Derby winner to take the Run for the Roses. The year was 1997, and Grindstone was easily one of the best horses in the race.
It’s difficult to say Epicenter is much better than Messier, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Taiba, or even a longshot like Charge It. At the odds, Epicenter is a pass.
- Third Choice: 6-Messier 8/1
Messier might be the most talented horse in the race. His problem is that Empire Maker is his sire. The 2003 Belmont Stakes winner has yet to produce a truly magnificent 3-year-old.
Also, Messier may have run the best race he will ever run when winning the Robert B. Lewis stakes. Stablemate Taiba ran by him like he was standing still in the Santa Anita Derby. So if you want to play Messier, why not instead play Taiba at 12-to-1?
- Fourth Choice: 1-Mo Donegal 10/1
10-to-1 odds are more than fair on a horse that has improved in every lifetime race and heads into the Kentucky Derby off a win in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. In addition, Mo calls Todd Pletcher his trainer.
Not only that, but based on Brisnet speed rating, Mo Donegal ran as fast winning the Wood Memorial as Taiba did winning the Santa Anita Derby. So give Mo a lot of love if you believe Todd wins another garland of roses. At least you know you’re choosing a favorite that offers fair odds.