NFL Week 3 Lines: MNF Jaguars Visit Unbeaten Bills – Josh Allen & Co. Favored on the Odds

The first of two staggered-start Monday Night Football games at 7:30 p.m. ET is from the AFC as the winless Jacksonville Jaguars visit the unbeaten Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen & Co. as 5.5-point favorites on the NFL odds.

Jacksonville vs Buffalo MNF: 2024 NFL Expert Analysis

Why Bet on Jacksonville?

The Jaguars have not looked good at all offensively yet in an 0-2 start and come off an 18-13 home loss to Cleveland. Trevor Lawrence got a huge contract extension this offseason and hasn’t justified it yet. He completed 14 of 30 passes for 220 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions, adding two rushes for 45 yards against Cleveland. He had only 16 yards at halftime, and each of his six passes of 20 or more yards came after the team trailed by two possessions.

Travis Etienne

Etienne rushed the ball 13 times for 52 yards and a touchdown, adding three receptions on four targets for six yards. Etienne accounted for 13 of the 19 carries recorded by Jacksonville’s skill-position players, in part due to the mid-game departure of Tank Bigsby (shoulder). Bigsby is questionable for Monday. Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram missed Week 2 injured and is out again. Second-year player Brenton Strange started in Engram’s place against the Browns and set career highs in catches (three) and receiving yards (65). He will fill the same role against the Bills. Safety Darnell Savage is questionable after missing Week 2.

Christian Kirk

The receiver — who has 1,924 yards receiving with the Jaguars since 2022 — was targeted just seven times in two games this season, a number that coach Doug Pederson and Lawrence said is unacceptable. He has averaged seven targets per game the past two seasons. “Got to get him going this week, and I’ve got a lot of trust and faith that it will get going this week,” Lawrence said.

The Jaguars rank 26th in the NFL in points (15.0) and 22nd in yards (295.0) and the offense’s struggles on third downs have defined the season to date. The Jaguars have converted five of 19 third downs this season, running 50 offensive plays against the Dolphins in a Week 1 loss and 55 against the Browns.

Press Taylor

“That’s not enough,” offensive coordinator said. “We haven’t had enough snaps because we’re not converting enough on third down to begin with. We need to be in [the high 80s], and then that gives you more opportunities to spread the ball around, more touches, get a little bit more rhythm across the board.”

OC Press Taylor & DC Ryan Nielsen meet with the media.#DUUUVAL https://t.co/CcMVQNQiLo

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 20, 2024

The Jaguars have allowed 20 and 16 points in the first two games, with two points against Cleveland coming on a late safety. That’s good enough to win. But great defenses force turnovers and this defense hasn’t forced one yet.

The Record

Since Week 13 of last season, the Jaguars are tied with the Panthers for the worst record in the NFL (1-7) entering Week 3. Five of those losses were by one score (eight or fewer points).

Jacksonville holds a record of 8-8 on Monday Night Football, while Coach Doug Pederson has a record of 5-3. This marks the first time the Jaguars will play on Monday night in back-to-back seasons since 2010 and 2011.

Why Bet on Buffalo?

Buffalo has been off since winning impressively 31-10 in Miami on Thursday in Week 2. Josh Allen completed 13 of 19 passes for 139 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions while adding two carries for two yards. James Cook and the defense did a lot of the heavy lifting for the Bills, although Allen had a hand in Cook’s first of three touchdowns on the night by connecting with him on a 17-yard scoring pass in the first quarter. Otherwise, Allen focused almost all his attention on Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, who were on the receiving end of nine of the quarterback’s completions and 87 of his passing yards.

James Cook

Cook rushed 11 times for 78 yards and two touchdowns and secured his only target for a 17-yard score. The third-year back opened the scoring with a 17-yard touchdown reception to cap off Buffalo’s opening possession, and he added scoring runs of one and 49 yards in the second quarter. The fact the Bills already had a two-touchdown lead by halftime allowed head coach Sean McDermott to take it easy on Cook in the second half, with rookie backup Ray Davis nearly matching him in carries (nine) by night’s end. Cook has 149 rushing yards and 49 receiving yards through two games.

The Bills have favored the run game on offense through two weeks. Buffalo has run 103 plays to start the season – 42 have been pass attempts and 59 have been rushes. That means the Bills have run the ball on 57% of their plays to start the season. The Jaguars have allowed an average of just 3.8 yards per rush (7th lowest) and 19 points (tied for 8th lowest) per game to start the season.

Injuries

The Bills will be without starting nickel corner Taron Johnson (forearm) and middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) for this matchup. Bernard could miss about a month but the injury is not believed to be season-ending. It’s a tough blow to a Bills defense that underwhelmed in Week 1 but terrorized the Dolphins in Week 2. Bernard had 10 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 143 total tackles in 2023.

While the defense played well in Week 2, even after Bernard went out during the game, how the unit will perform against the Jaguars will be a test. When the teams faced off last season, Jags RB Travis Etienne rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns, including a 35-yard rushing touchdown. Baylon Spector filled in against the Dolphins for Bernard and will get the start against the Jaguars. After Bernard was injured in the first quarter against Miami, Spector did not miss a beat on defense as he tallied 10 total tackles, tying for the team lead.

“I just think you just look at the guys that have come and done it,” Spector said. “I mean, you stay ready, you stay preparing, you look at the guys that have done it – J-Marc, Cam, me, I mean, it continues to go on. I think the guys before us set a great example, they were ready, and then you learn from that, and you keep going.”

Buffalo has had success against Jacksonville at home in the recent past. The Bills have won the last three games against the Jaguars at Highmark Stadium dating back to 2012.

Predicting Tonight’s Inactives…

▪️Terrel Bernard (injury)
▪️Taron Johnson (injury)
▪️Edefaun Ulofoshio
▪️Javon Solomon
▪️Ryan Van Demark #BillsMafia | #GoBills pic.twitter.com/Dvl5HJukJd

— Air Raid | Buffalo (@TheBillsGuys) September 23, 2024

Bills vs Jaguars MNF Info

When: Monday, 7:30 PM ET
Where: Highmark Stadium
TV: ESPN
Radio: ESPN radio
Stream Option: ESPN+

Bills vs Jaguars Series History

It’s the 20th all-time meeting including playoffs and the Jaguars lead 10-9. They won the most recent meeting in Week 5 last season in London, 25-20. Travis Etienne rushed for 136 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns. He also caught four passes for 48 yards. Josh Allen was 27 of 40 for 359 yards and two touchdown passes and an interception in the loss.

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