Baltimore vs New York Yankees MLB Prediction & Betting

Baltimore vs New York | MLB Betting Prediction & Odds

The last time Yankees lefty Jordan Montgomery faced the Orioles this season, New York lost as a huge betting favorite. Montgomery is back on the mound at home Wednesday vs. Baltimore, and the Yanks are again big favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Orioles at Yankees MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Baltimore?

The Orioles made a few moves ahead of Tuesday’s series opener. They placed starting pitcher RHP Chris Ellis on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation. Ellis left his start Sunday against the Angels with right shoulder discomfort, and it’s an ailment that is going to cost him at least a couple of turns in the Orioles’ rotation. Alexander Wells was called up in a corresponding 28-man roster move. Wells has worked two scoreless innings of relief this season at the major league level.

Not that the Orioles were going to be very good regardless, but their ace, John Means, is done for the season and will need Tommy John surgery. Means is unquestionably Baltimore’s top starter, having pitched to a 3.72 ERA/4.59 FIP over 353 1/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season. He’s the only O’s pitcher to even exceed 200 frames over that stretch, and no other Baltimore starter with 100+ frames in that time has an ERA below 4.79. Teams have been pursuing Means for a while, and come July, if he were healthy, he would likely have been one of the most attractive trade targets available.

Rather amazingly, the Orioles became are the only team in the live-ball era (since 1920) to have single-digit hits and no home runs in each of their first six wins of a season. The Orioles have gone 0-4 when hitting a home run this year, compared to 6-5 when hitting no home runs. The Orioles have not hit multiple home runs in a game since October 1, 2021 at Toronto. Their 18-game streak without hitting multiple home runs is their longest since a 20-game stretch from September 18, 2010 to April 6, 2011.

Tyler Wells (0-2, 6.75) will take the mound here. Wells was charged with two runs over 2 1/3 innings Thursday in a loss to the Athletics. Wells gave up five hits, including a solo homer to Cristian Pache in the third inning, before being lifted from the abbreviated outing. The 27-year-old righty has given up six runs on 11 hits with a 6/4 K/BB ratio across eight innings (three starts) this season.

Wells faced the Yankees on April 16 and pitched well in a no-decision, allowing just three hits and a pair of walks over four scoreless innings. Wells generated eight swinging strikes on the night while posting a CSW of 28 percent.

Opposing batters own a 38.1% hard-hit rate against O’s pitchers, down 3.2% from their 41.3% hard-hit rate in 2021; it marks the sixth-largest decrease in hard-hit rate by a pitching staff since last season. O’s pitchers have also increased their strikeout rate, from 19.7% in 2021 to 21.3% to begin the 2022 season.

Why Bet on NY Yankees?

Five of the Yankees’ wins this year have been come-from-behind wins. They are undefeated in four of five series this season (3-1-1).

The Yankees will be without usual center fielder Aaron Hicks as he was placed on the paternity leave list Tuesday. He can miss up to three games, so he likely will return Friday’s series opener against the Royals in Kansas City. The 32-year-old has gotten off to a strong start this season, hitting .273/.377/.341 with one homer and two steals in 54 plate appearances over 15 games.

To take his roster spot, the team recalled infielder/outfielder Miguel Andújar from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The 27-year-old former big-league regular has torn the cover off the ball in the minors this year, hitting .346/.396/.551 with three homers and one steal in 53 plate appearances.

Giancarlo Stanton’s next home run will mark the 350th HR of his career. He has hit 349HR in 1,340 career games, tied for the seventh-most in Major League history through 1,340 career games.

Yankees starting have allowed 3ER-or-fewer in each of their 17 starts this season and 2ER-or-fewer in 13 of those starts. They have posted a 2.62 ERA. Yankees relievers have held opponents to a .202/.302/.277 slash line. Their .277 opponents’ slugging is the third-lowest in the majors.

It’s lefty Jordan Montgomery on Wednesday. Montgomery (0-1, 2.51) took a tough loss after allowing one run in six innings last Thursday against the Tigers. Montgomery struck out five. He gave up just three hits and only one of those was hit well. The Yankees have scored a total of four runs in his three starts this season. On April 15 in Baltimore, he did not record a decision after allowing just three hits over 5.0 scoreless innings (2BB, 2K). The Yankees would lose the game.

Game Trends

  • Orioles are 14-37 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Orioles are 20-53 in their last 73 overall.
  • Orioles are 14-42 in their last 56 Wednesday games.
  • Orioles are 17-52 in their last 69 during game 2 of a series.
  • Yankees are 93-43 in their last 136 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Yankees are 37-18 in their last 55 Wednesday games.
  • Orioles are 20-42 in the last 62 meetings in New York.

Expert Prediction: Yankees 6, Orioles 3


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