The Major League Baseball Trade Deadline is now in the rearview mirror, which means that the stretch run of the 2024 regular season is officially here.
Here are two predictions for the rest of the way with updated MLB futures odds.
Yankees win AL East
As of this writing, New York is a half-game behind Baltimore in the AL East, but I don’t think the Orioles got enough starting pitching before the deadline to hold off the Yankees.
Baltimore aimed for the likes of ace Garrett Crochet of the White Sox and Tarik Skubal of the Tigers, but neither was traded.
Instead, the O’s settled for the likes of Zach Eflin from Tampa Bay and Trevor Rogers from Miami. Rogers, 26, is 2-9 with a 4.53 ERA and cost two good prospects.
That was a questionable trade. The southpaw has gotten better results over his past nine starts, generating a 3.17 ERA.
The Orioles have had a glaring need for rotation help because of a series of devastating injuries to their rotation.
Baltimore did make one interesting move in trading for White Sox slugger Eloy Jimenez – and the Orioles are clearly going to have to hit their way to the AL East title.
The 27-year-old Jimenez is hitting .240 with just five home runs and 16 RBIs this season.
Those numbers aren’t great, but he has 40-homer potential when healthy. Jimenez just is hardly healthy. Maybe playing for a contender changes that.
The Yankees frankly didn’t much address their rotation, either, but will get Clarke Schmidt back from the IL at some point.
And New York did beef up its bullpen ahead of the deadline with a few moves, led by acquiring Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs.
Leiter’s 2.61 expected ERA and .197 expected batting average rank in the 96th and 94th percentiles, respectively, according to Stat cast.
He also has elite swing-and-miss stuff that has resulted in a 36.7% whiff rate and 34.9% strikeout rate, both of which rank in the 98th percentile.
Last weekend, New York acquired infielder/outfielder Jazz Chisholm from Miami, and that might be the difference in the division.
He is clearly energized as a contender, having gone 6-for-15 with four homers and eight RBI in three games since he was traded.
The Yankees are -134 East favorites, with the Orioles at +106.
^MyBookie MLB Wager Lines to Win Today
Paul Skenes wins NL Cy Young
The only rookie pitcher to ever win the Cy Young in the same season was former Dodgers‘ lefty Fernando Valenzuela in 1981.
Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, was as high as +20000 to win the NL Cy when the season began because no one was sure when he would be called up.
That happened in early May, and Skenes has been outrageously good ever since. He’s down to a +172 second favorite for the NL Cy Young behind Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale (-101), who used to be a Cy Young candidate all the time back in the day in the American League with the White Sox but never won it.
Paul Skenes Stats
Skenes is 6-1 with a 1.90 ERA, 103 strikeouts and 0.90 WHIP in his first 13 big-league starts and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all of them.
On Monday in Houston in a no-decision, Skenes got the 100th career strikeout of his career when Jon Singleton whiffed on a second-inning change up. Skenes became only the sixth MLB pitcher to reach 100 strikeouts in just career 13 games.
The only concern with Skenes is if the Pirates limit his workload, as he’s not scheduled to start again until next Tuesday vs. San Diego. He has the fifth-lowest ERA (1.90) through the first 13 starts of any pitcher since 1934.
If Skenes can get the Pirates a wild-card spot, he hugely deserves the Cy Young. As of this writing, Pittsburgh is two games out of the final NL spot.
Skenes is a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as a -5000 favorite. The Pirates have had just one winner of that: Outfielder Jason Bay in 2004.
^Top 10 to Win the World Series
- Los Angeles Dodgers +310
- Philadelphia Phillies +530
- New York Yankees +580
- Baltimore Orioles +640
- Atlanta Braves +1100
- Houston Astros +1400
- Cleveland Guardians +1450
- Minnesota Twins +1925
- Milwaukee Brewers +2100
- Seattle Mariners +2400
A lot of prospects were on the move around the Trade Deadline, but which teams got the best hauls?
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 1, 2024
Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo have their own ideas about that: https://t.co/dZiNYcCzCh pic.twitter.com/evlr3rvS6S
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