Pirates vs Giants Odds & Expert Betting Prediction

Blake Snell won the NL Cy Young Award last season with San Diego, becoming a rare pitcher to win a Cy in the NL and American League.

He signed with San Francisco this offseason but has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball as Snell is set to return to the mound Wednesday in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are short favorites on the MLB odds.

MLB Moneyline Pirates -115, Giants +105 (total 8)
Expert Pick Pirates 4, Giants 3

San Francisco Giants Betting Odds +102

The Giants are pretty banged up overall with a handful of everyday guys on the injured list, including shortstop Nick Ahmed, catcher Patrick Bailey and outfielders, Austin Slater, Michael Conforto and Jung Hoo Lee. Over the weekend, SF transferred Lee to the 60-day IL as he will miss the remainder of the 2024 season after dislocating his left shoulder.

So there were some concerns by other teams and that’s why Snell’s free-agent market didn’t materialize. Those other teams were right thus far as Snell is a brutal 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA in his three starts with the Giants. The lefty will be activated off the injured list ahead of Wednesday’s game to start in Pittsburgh.

Snell continued to dazzle in his next appearance with Triple-A Sacramento on May 17, striking out 10 over five no-hit innings.

He said he felt better than his first rehab start and grew stronger as the game went on — enough to throw 15 pitches in the bullpen after tossing 60 in the game. Snell was firing all cylinders last time out, with his fastball coming in at an average of 95.6 mph, just 0.3 over his season average across 2024. His curveball, too, was harder (81.1 mph, up 1.1).

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Odds -125

Two of Pittsburgh’s three games against the Giants at Oracle Park last month were decided in the last at-bat. The Pirates have played in a total of 12 games decided in the last at-bat (the Bucs are 6-6 in those games). That’s tied for the fourth-most games in all of MLB.

The Pirates are 17-1 when leading after eight innings with their only loss on April 9 against Detroit. The team ranks fifth in the National League and ninth in all of MLB with a .988 fielding percentage this month.

Pittsburgh is without starting third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. He was placed on the injured list on May 11 with lower back inflammation but this trip to the IL could potentially be on the shorter side as Hayes has resumed all exercises. He could make it back before the end of the month if all goes well.

Ahead of Tuesday’s series opener, the Bucs recalled outfielder Ji Hwan Bae from Triple-A Indianapolis. Bae slashed .367/.479/.551 with four home runs and seven stolen bases over 27 games with Indianapolis, while playing center field, left field and second base.

It’s good-looking young rookie Jared Jones on the mound here. Jones (3-4) picked up the win over the Cubs last Thursday, allowing three runs on seven hits while striking out seven over six innings. Jones allowed hits in four of his six innings of work, including a solo homer to Ian Happ to lead off the second.

However, the right-hander still managed to log his third consecutive quality start while also posting at least seven strikeouts for the seventh time in nine outings this season. Jones produced 15 swings and misses on the night, though his seven hits allowed marked a season high. He’s won just two of his last six decisions despite carrying a 2.89 ERA on the campaign.

Jones said he had to go back to the drawing board in order to regain confidence in his slider vs. the Cubs after his last start when the results weren’t quite there. He watched film, compared that outing to those of the past and made sure he was replicating the things that made him successful when throwing in between starts. That extra work paid off.

Jones has limited opposing hitters to a .208 batting average and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his starts. His 155 swings and misses this season are the most by a pitcher in his first 9 career starts in the pitch-tracking era (2008). The previous mark was 150 by Masahiro Tanaka. Strikeouts are a huge part of Jones’s game, as he now has 63 in 53.0 innings for Pittsburgh.

On April 28, Jones pitched in San Francisco and took the loss after allowing three runs in five innings. He fanned only three and seemed to tire out quickly, with his last three fastballs in the fifth coming in at 94.4, 93.3 and 93.8 mph. That’s from a guy averaging 97.4 mph on the season. Jones allowed third-inning B2B homers by Thairo Estrada and Mike Yastrzemski.

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