San Diego vs Philadelphia Odds, Picks & Predictions MLB Expert Analysis

San Diego vs Philadelphia | Odds, Picks & Predictions MLB

Former American League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell is expected to make his season debut off injured list on Wednesday for the San Diego Padres as they visit the Philadelphia Phillies – who may not have star Bryce Harper again. The Phillies are favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Padres at Phillies MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on San Diego?

San Diego manager Bob Melvin as he recently had prostate surgery, but no cancer was found. Bench coach Ryan Christenson has been serving as interim manager during Melvin’s absence.

Manny Machado was back in the Padres’ starting lineup for Tuesday’s series opener against the Phillies. Machado received a rare day off Sunday against the Braves. The 29-year-old third baseman has looked like a potential National League MVP candidate this season, hitting .359/.443/.586 with 27 runs scored, seven home runs, 23 RBI and six stolen bases across 149 plate appearances entering the series.

Lefty and 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell will be making his season debut on Wednesday following an adductor strain suffered April 10.

“It’s been a long time,” Snell said. “A month and a half ago I thought I was gonna be down for like three days. That’s what I remember. I was like, ‘It should be a couple of days. I’ll be good.’ ”

Snell is looking to bounce back from a difficult first season with the Padres where he went 7-6 with an ERA of 4.20 across 27 games. Snell made three starts on his minor league rehab assignment, compiling a 2.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 19/2 K/BB ratio over 13 innings of work.

Snell’s return ought to provide a boost to a San Diego staff that’s already been among the better units in the game. Padres starters are tied with the Twins for the game’s ninth-best ERA at 3.50, which is a dead-on match for their seventh-ranked 3.50 FIP. They’re also fourth in MLB with a 25% strikeout rate and have been a respectable, albeit middle-of-the-pack group in terms of walk rate, ranking 15th with a 7.8% mark.

Christiansen has said that MacKenzie Gore and Nick Martinez are likely to work out of the bullpen for the time being with Snell returning to the rotation. There have been conflicting reports regarding whether or not the Padres will continue to employ a six-man rotation now that Snell is returning. It’s also possible they plan to have either Gore or Nick Martinez work in tandem with Snell while he continues to build up his stamina.

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

Since 2004 and entering this series, the Phillies are 71-39 (.645 winning percentage) against San Diego which includes a 34-21 (.618%) record at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia’s .645 winning percentage against the Padres since 2004 ranks 5th among all MLB teams against any single opponent (min. 100 games played).

Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper sat both Sunday’s game at the Dodgers and Tuesday vs. the Padres after getting scheduled PRP treatment for the damage in his throwing elbow, which has limited the 29-year-old slugger to DH duties since mid-April. Harper is more likely than not to play Wednesday. He was named NL Player of the Week for last week. Over six games, Harper hit .609 (14-for-23) with three homers, eight RBI and a 1.904 OPS. Over the weekend he became the first visiting player to hit seven extra-base hits in a three-game span in the 61-year history of Dodger Stadium.

Harper, who was hitting just .138 through the first eight games of the season, has been white-hot since then, hitting .353 with eight home runs, 22 RBI, and an OPS of 1.118 over his last 26 games. Over his last 162 games (since 4/18/21), Harper is slashing .314/.417/.633 with a 1.049 OPS in 693 plate appearances – in addition, he has 122 runs, 54 doubles, 2 triples, 42 home runs, 105 RBI and 101 walks.

It’s 2021 NL Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler (1-3) on the mound Wednesday. Wheeler allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings while not factoring into the decision last Thursday against the Dodgers. Wheeler allowed six hits, and he procured seven strikeouts with just one walk. The right-hander was making his first start since coming off the COVID-19 injured list, and he allowed a homer to Cody Bellinger and a two-run double to Will Smith. Outside of that, it was a strong effort, and he’s (mostly) been better than his 4.26 ERA indicates.

The Padres haven’t been an issue for Wheeler in the past, as he holds a 2-1 record against them with an ERA of 2.45, and a SO/9 of 10.8, the third-highest amongst all teams.

Game Trends

  • Padres are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. National League East.
  • Padres are 9-3 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Padres are 5-11 in their last 16 Wednesday games.
  • Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. National League West.
  • Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Expert Prediction: Phillies 4, Padres 3


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