PFL Best Bets: Kasanganay vs Polizzi Picks and Analysis

Week 4 of the 2024 PFL regular season is set to take place this Thursday night, June 13. The heavyweights and women’s flyweights will be on display with plenty of interesting matchups to talk about and bet on.

Since the merger between PFL and Bellator, this new PFL season has become much more interesting with the increase in talent in each weight class. Who will come out of this week as the frontrunners for a 2024 PFL playoff run and a shot at $1 million?

My Analysis 2024 PFL Regular Season Odds: Heavyweights & Women’s Flyweights

If you want to take in all the fights, you can catch them on ESPN+. All told, there are 6 fights set for the main card, with both the men and the women getting in on the action. Let’s quickly break down all 6 fights and make some PFL betting predictions as we go.

Key Fights and Betting Lines

Let’s discuss a handful of the most interesting MMA bouts to bet on this Thursday night in Connecticut. Who will get their hand raised? What value do these fighters have this week?

Taila Santos (-525) vs. Jena Bishop (+375)

This is an awesome matchup in the women’s flyweight division for the PFL. In a division packed full of great prospects like Jena Bishop, Santos might be the most interesting addition to the roster in 2024.

Santos was a legit UFC contender who gave the great Valentina Shevchenko arguably the toughest fight at flyweight she ever had up to that point in their championship showdown in Singapore in 2022 at UFC 275.

Even though Bishop is a very talented undefeated MMA prospect with BJJ world championships under her belt, she is now 38 years old and past her athletic prime, especially in MMA. Will her body be able to keep up with the workload that a PFL season presents?

Santos hasn’t been very active since her UFC title shot, so the PFL is a great opportunity for her to stay in shape and focus on doing what she does best, competing. She is fresh off a first-round submission in April and looks to keep that momentum going into her second fight of the year.

Bishop is going to be dangerous on the ground in multiple positions, but the overall skill and athleticism of Santos is way too much to bet against this week. Keep your eyes open on a prop bet for Santos to win by TKO/KO for big money.

Denis Goltsov (-450) vs. Thiago Santos (+350)

This would have been an incredible main event bout in 2019, but the greatness of Santos is long gone at this point in his career at 40 years old and multiple injuries.

Goltsov is a 40-fight MMA veteran but is clearly in better condition than the former UFC title challenger. He finally competed for his first PFL title in 2023, coming up short against the very dangerous Renan Ferreira.

This is another fight that the only value will be in prop bets since the money line is so wide, but this might be a good opportunity.

If you are an avid MMA sports bettor who knows a lot about the sport, you probably know how Santos has been performing for the past couple of years. Even while using PEDs last year, he fought like he had nothing left to give in the cage.

Santos’ knees haven’t been the same since his fight with Jon Jones in 2019, and he is very timid in the cage now. It almost looks like he wants to get through the 15 minutes and get a decision, no matter if he wins or loses. This might be as frustrating for Goltsov as it is to watch for fans.

Taking Goltsov to win a decision is not a bad play at all. You can also take him to win by submission because there is a world where Santos decides he doesn’t want to be in the cage anymore getting beat up on the ground, and finds a way out by giving up his back.

Marcelo Golm (+145) vs. Tyrell Fortune (-170)

This heavyweight bout is the closest fight, on paper, on the main card this Thursday night. With a pretty close moneyline margin, it’s arguably the only fight worth a single moneyline bet on Thursday night.

PFL has always struggled to put on competitive matchups in the regular season, and now with the selection of both PFL and Bellator fighters, fans should be able to see more interesting matchups like this early in the season.

Both of these guys are big men with a lot of power and explosiveness. Golm has experience fighting all over the world for multiple organizations, including the UFC. Fortune has been fighting in Bellator for his entire career up to this point, making his PFL debut on Thursday.

Golm is coming off a tough KO loss only two months ago, so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back mentally and physically–which is always a big factor in the quick turn-arounds of the PFL season.

Our advice would be to pick this fight to end in the first round. Both guys will be trying to finish the fight as quickly as possible to give their bodies some rest going into their next fight at the end of the summer.

Dakota Ditcheva (-2000) vs. Chelsea Hackett (+1000)

This fight doesn’t have much to break down. It’s a big fight for the PFL as their most prized women’s prospect, Dakota Ditcheva, comes off a 2023 PFL Europe title and a big win in April to start her PFL 2024 campaign.

Hackett is a bright young talent who has run into some tough competition early in her career, but Ditcheva’s striking ability is really impressive and should get the job done on Thursday night. The only bet to logically make is taking Ditcheva to win by TKO/KO.

Valentin Moldavsky (-310) vs. Linton Vassell (+260)

The main event of Thursday evening will be this trilogy fight between two Bellator MMA veterans. Moldavsky is a former Bellator interim heavyweight champion and Vassell has competed for Bellator titles at light heavyweight.

Even though Vassell is 41 years old, heavyweight MMA can prolong a career unlike any other weight division in MMA. He still has the timing and enough athleticism to go along with his power and fight experience to be very dangerous in the PFL.

Moldavsky is in his prime at 32 years old and is a combat sambo champion. He has proved he has more MMA skills than Vassell, but the chance of a KO is always there every second this fight is taking place standing up.

We are taking Moldavsky to get his hand raised by a unanimous decision after using a wrestle-heavy attack to get past the dangerous power of Vassell.

: Your updated PFL Mohegan Sun Fight card

•Melissa Balic vs Kristina Katsikis is off

The road to the 2024 #PFLPlayoffs

[ #PFLRegularSeason | Thursday, June 13th | 9pm ET on ESPN | ️ https://t.co/ds8zBUDmzL ] pic.twitter.com/nqONh7g5Zz
— PFL (@PFLMMA) June 11, 2024