2024 National Championship Odds: Last Minute Pick

After three weeks and five games, the two best teams in the nation clash on Monday night when 1 seeds Purdue and Connecticut throw down for the 2024 NCAA Men’s College Basketball National Championship. UConn is a -6.5 spread line favorite to get past Zach Edey and Purdue.

Will the Boilermakers prove that they have what it takes to take down the defending champs?

Check out March Madness Odds, analysis, and a free pick for the final time this year with UConn and Purdue battle for the title.

2024 March Madness Odds: Purdue vs. UConn Odds and Pick | MyBookie Betting Preview of the National Championship Game Matchup

Why Purdue is a Good Bet Versus UConn

Purdue boasts one of the best big men to come out of college basketball in more than a decade. The difference between Zach Edey and other bigs that have leapt to the NBA is that Edey has amazing footwork.

His footwork is so good that even with double teams, or even triple teams, it’s going to be difficult for the Huskies to stop Edey. For sure, Donovan Clingan, UConn’s big man, is a good basketball player. But Clingan has yet to guard someone with Edey’s incredible abilities.

Edey dominated NC State forward DJ Burns Jr., dropping 20 points and grabbing 20 boards. The problem all opponents have versus Edey is that he step to the right or left because he’s effective shooting a short hook with either hand.

It makes it extremely difficult to keep Edey from getting enough space to get off a decent shot. Not only that, but Edey is an incredible passer. If he can find Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones for open threes, Purdue could push the favorite to the limit.

Purdue at the March Madness Tournament

W – 63-50 vs NC State
W – 72-66 vs Tennessee
W – 80-68 vs Gonzaga
W – 106-67 vs Utah State
W – 78-50 vs Grambling

Purdue Predicted Starting Lineup

F – T. Kaufman-Renn
C – Z. Edey
G – B. Smith
G – F. Loyer
G – L. Jones

Why UConn is a Good Bet Versus Purdue

Donovan Clingan isn’t Zach Edey. The Purdue big man has footwork that is making NBA scouts drool. Clingan doesn’t have the type of footwork that Edey possesses. So we can’t expect Clingan to put up stats the way Edey does.

But on Monday night, Clingan will serve a different purpose. The best way to defend Edey, and Purdue won’t win unless Edey dominates, is to make the big man work for every shot. DJ Burns Jr. is only 6’ 9”. So it was difficult for the NC State big to handle Edey.

Donovan Clingan is 7’ 2”. Edey goes up against the best big he’s faced all season long. If Clingan can make Edey work on both ends of the floor, if Dan Hurley sets up Clingan for shots inside the paint, UConn will handle Purdue’s big.

When it comes to UConn’s guards versus Purdue’s, the Huskies have the edge. Cam Spencer, Tristan Newton, and Cam Spencer all average double figures in scoring. So Braden Smith and his mates could have issues on the defensive end come Monday night.

UConn at the March Madness Tournament

W – 86-72 vs Alabama
W – 77-52 vs Illinois
W – 82-52 vs San Diego State
W – 75-58 vs Northwestern
W – 91-52 vs Stetson

UConn Predicted Starting Lineup

F – A. Karaban
C – D. Clingan
G – S. Castle
G – G. Newton
G – C. Spencer

Final Betting Analysis: 1-UConn Huskies vs 1-Purdue Boilermakers

This is a tough game to handicap. But when it comes down to it, Connecticut, as good as they have been, is going to have trouble keeping Edey from finding the open man.

By no means is Purdue the better team. However, the matchup of Clingan versus Edey is no contest. Edey moves like a gazelle in the paint, meaning he will force Clingan into positions where Edey should get off good look shot after good look shot.

Then if Hurley decides to double Edey, forget it. Jones, Smith, and Loyer will make the Huskies pay. At the beginning of this tournament, this writer believed Purdue was due for a letdown like they had in 2023.

Instead, Purdue has gotten better with each victory, playing their best hoops in the Final Four versus a scrappy NC State squad. Purdue will show no fear, Zach Edey will have a huge game and Donovan Clingan will struggle against Edey’s size and the way Purdue’s big uses his body.

Taking the points on the Boilers makes sense. But the optimal bet is on Purdue on the moneyline. The Boilermakers end UConn’s dream of a second straight National Championship.

NCAA Tournament National Championship Pick: Purdue Boilermakers +223

Purdue vs UConn
Final Four ATS Pick: UConn Huskies -4 | March Madness Odds to Win National Championship MyBookie College Basketball lines for the matchup

Also, looking for the Final Four Betting Over/Under Picks, check it out, worth the read and worht the bet.

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