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Betting Advice for the 2025 NFL Wild Card Round
NFL Wild Card: Uncover Hidden Gems & Maximize Your Winnings

2025 NFL Season | 106th season of National League in the United States
Wild Card: Saturday, January 11th – Sunday, January 12th, 2025

 

How to Bet and Win on the 2025 NFL Wild Card Games

NFL Wild Card Weekend kicks off on Saturday when the Los Angeles Chargers head to Houston to take on the Texans.

The Bolts remain -3 road favorites even though many players for the Chargers are head into the game worried about the recent fires that devastated many parts of Southern California.

In Saturday’s second game, the Steeler return to Baltimore to battle the Ravens for a third time this season.

Then on Sunday, Bo Nix and the Broncos take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the early game, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and the Eagles host the Green Bay Packers, and Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders into Tampa to throw down against Baker and the Buccaneers.

Monday’s Vikings at LA Rams matchup may take place in Arizona depending on how the fires in L.A. County play out.

Keep reading for NFL odds, analysis, and free ATS and over/under picks for this season’s NFL Wild Card matchups.

 

Writer’s Betting Advice for Each Game on Wild Card Weekend

L.A. Chargers at Houston Texans

Saturday, January 11th, 2025

ATS: LAC -3
Over/Under: 42.5

The Chargers remain chalks to beat C.J. Stroud and the Texans even though many L.A. players must have their minds on other things.

The fires that ravaged parts of L.A. County this past week showed minimal signs of letting up on Thursday Night Football.

But although many in the Chargers’ organization have to be worried about their friends and families, Jim Harbaugh is a strong enough coach to keep his players’ minds on business.

Quietly, Justin Herbert has become a machine, throwing for 7 touchdowns and a single interception in his last 3 games.

Herbert will have a healthy Ladd McConkey at his disposal on Saturday.

Also, tight end Will Dissly is healthy and Quinten Johnston should be okay.

JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards will both play but in limited roles, which means the Chargers are likely to throw in this game.

On the other side, C.J. Stroud will be without Tank Dell.

Stroud has yet to find a replacement receiver other than Dell.

It’s unlikely he does so on Saturday.

Harbaugh’s D was big against New England and the Raiders.

This game should end with the Bolts covering no problem.

Harbaugh will unleash Herbert and the passing game while Derwin James and the defense should handle a Texans’ offense that got untracked big time in the second half of the season.

Houston’s offense should contribute just enough, though, for this go over because the Bolts are good for 24 to 34.

NFL Wild Card Round ATS Pick: LA Chargers -3
NFL Wild Card Round Over/Under Pick: Over 42.5

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Saturday, January 11th, 2025

ATS: Baltimore -9.5
Over/Under: 43.5

It’s tough to like the Steelers in this.

So tough, in fact, that Baltimore is the pick to cover the -9.5.

For sure, Pittsburgh will play with heart and the game could go over the total, but the Steelers are good for 10 to 17 and that’s it.

The Ravens will run Derrick Henry left, right, and up the middle.

Henry rushed for 162 yards from 24 carries versus the Steelers in the second matchup, the one the Ravens won 34-17.

Lamar Jackson thew for 207 yards and 3 TDs with a pick.

Lamar could have a similar game.

More than likely, and this is for you fantasy players, Henry adds 2 TDs onto a close to 200 yard game.

This matchup could be low scoring if Mike Tomlin, which is where I’m going, leans on Najee Harris and hopes to keep the ball out of Lamar’s hands.

The Ravens still cover.

But the game won’t be nearly as high scoring as the second matchup.

Think 24-14 where the Ravens cover by half a point and the game goes under by a half point.

A 21-10 score is also possible.

NFL Wild Card Round ATS Pick: Baltimore Ravens -9.5
NFL Wild Card Round Over/Under Pick: Under 43.5

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Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Sunday, January 12th, 2025

ATS: Buffalo -8.5
Over/Under: 46.5

After handicapping Broncos at Bills, I believe the +8.5 makes Denver a massive overlay.

In fact, I think the Broncos have a huge shot of winning this straight up.

Denver has improved big time this season.

The improvement on Denver’s side has coincided with Bo Nix becoming one of the better starting quarterbacks in the league. (Check this out: Betting NFL Wild Card Quarterbacks picks)

In his last 5 games, the former Oregon star has thrown for a combined 14 touchdowns to 6 picks.

In his last 3 games, Nix’s TD to INT ratio is 9-to-1.

For sure, stopping Allen is going to be a chore.

But the Bills’ D has struggled in the last few games, giving up 42 points to the Lions in a game Buffalo won due to Josh pulling out his Superman cape and giving up 21 points to the Patriots and 23 in a loss in NFL Week 18.

Sean Payton is going to have a game plan that includes rushes and short paces to ultra talented back Jaleel McLaughlin ala Payton’s strategy with Reggie Bush back in his Saints’ heydays.

Also, expect Marvin Mims Jr., who has improved to become Nix’s top target, to spread the field versus Buffalo’s suspect secondary.

Allen will have to do the hard lifting by himself again in a playoff game.

The story has become tiresome for Buffalo fans but James Cook will struggle against Denver’s rush defense and the Broncos’ secondary won’t fear Amari Cooper or Kahlil Shakir.

Denver pulls off the moneyline upset in an over game.

NFL Wild Card Round ML Pick: Denver Broncos +350
NFL Wild Card Round Over/Under Pick: Over 46.5

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Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, January 12th, 2025

ATS: Philadelphia -4.5
Over/Under: 46.5

Packers versus Eagles should be one of the better games during wild card weekend because Matt LaFleur, Jordan Love, and Josh Jacobs are legit.

But the Packers have a massive problem on the defensive side.

Although limited in Wednesday’s practice, Jalen Hurts looked good.

A.J. Brown won’t be one hundred percent healthy in this.

DeVonta Smith will be. So will Saquon Barkley, who is unstoppable.

Green Bay’s D struggled to stop rushers during the regular season.

Barkley is going to have a massive day.

If you’re playing an NFL Wild Card fantasy team this weekend, build around Philly’s 2,000 plus yard rusher.

The Eagles will test Green Bay’s front seven time and again in this while Hurts should find Brown, even if A.J. is limited, and Smith open all day because after the first quarter, the Pack will have to send resources towards the line to contain Saquon.

Vic Fangio’s defense should stop Josh Jacobs from having a big night.

Love doesn’t make many mistakes but he doesn’t have the receivers to test Fangio’s secondary.

The Eagles have a real shot of holding the Packers to 20 points or less while scoring on most of their possessions.

The over/under is a more difficult play to handicap than the spread line.

Philly covers for sure.

But it’s hard to know if Green Bay does enough to keep this close.

I’m going Eagles to under and crossing my fingers for a Philadelphia blowout win.

NFL Wild Card Round ATS Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
NFL Wild Card Round Over/Under Pick: Under 46.5

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Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, January 12th, 2025

ATS: Tampa Bay -3
Over/Under: 50.5

The Buccaneers didn’t look great versus the New Orleans Saints in their final game of the regular season.

But before jumping all over the Commanders to pull off the ATS or SU upset, consider that Bucs versus Saints is one of the most heated rivalries in the NFL.

It has been for the past 20 years since the Bucs won the Super Bowl in the early 2000s and the Saints won in 2010.

Rivalry games means something in football. It doesn’t matter the level.

So the fact the Buccaneers had to rally to beat their top rival makes some sense.

Baker and his buds are going to have a much better time taking it to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders on Sunday.

Washington’s defense will be in trouble because Bucky Irving should have a monster game.

If the Commanders try to stop Irving, Baker is going to torch Washington’s secondary with passes to Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.

Also, tight end Cade Otten is healthy and will play for Tampa in this.

Jayden Daniels is terrific but the Buccaneers’ defense has stepped it up in recent games.

The Chargers scored 13, the Cowboys 26, the Panthers 14, and the Saints 19.

Daniels and his mates scored 20 in an NFL Week 1 loss to the Bucs.

Stopping the Commanders offense from scoring 28,, though, will be a chore but the Bucs D may not have to in order for TB to cover the spread.

Tampa does enough to score the victory and cover win.

The Buccaneers project for 34 to 38 while Daniels and his mates score 24 to 28.

I’m going Bucs to over the total.

NFL Wild Card Round ATS Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
NFL Wild Card Round Over/Under Pick: Over 50.5

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Minnesota Vikings at L.A. Rams

Monday, January 13th, 2025

ATS: Minnesota -1
Over/Under: 47.5

Vikings at Rams was supposed to happen at SoFi in Inglewood.

But the continued fire disaster that has hit multiple parts of L.A. County has the NFL considering switching the game from SoFi to Arizona.

No doubt, there will be more Minnesota fans in Arizona than there would be in Los Angeles.

But although the Vikings are favorites and the Rams, like the Chargers, will have their minds on their friends and families in L.A., the Vikings shouldn’t be the chalk.

The reason is because this is a bad matchup for Minnesota’s defense.

The Vikings are great at stopping the rush. They’re not so great at stopping the pass.

In fact, Jared Goff and the Lions dominated Minnesota in NFL Week 18.

Matthew Stafford didn’t play great football to end the season.

But his full arsenal of weapons makes this a possible bounce back game for Staff.

Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and one of the top pass catching running backs in the NFL, Kyren Williams, are one hundred percent healthy and ready to get it done.

Also, the Rams D has improved big time.

Rookie Jared Verse and the Rams’ defense locked down after allowing the Bills to score 44, holding the 49ers to 6, the Jets to 9, and the Cardinals to 9 in three straight wins before Sean McVay rested all of his starters in NFL Week 18.

Rams win straight up by more than 1 in an under game. (Check out this Monday Night Football review.)

NFL Wild Card Round ATS Pick: LA Rams +1
NFL Wild Card Round Over/Under Pick: Under 47.5

 

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Minnesota at Los Angeles Betting Trends Today

• Sam Darnold has thrown for 4,319 yards, 35 TDs and 12 INTs this season
• The Vikings went 14-3 during the regular season
• Minnesota is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games
• WR Justin Jefferson caught 103 passes for 1,533 yards and 10 TDs
• The L.A. Rams went 10-7 this season
• Matthew Stafford threw for 3,762 yards, 20 TDs, and 8 INTs
• The Rams went 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
• WR Puka Nacua caught 79 passes for 990 yards and 3 TDs in 11 games this season

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It is Wildcard Weekend. Since we got the Rams, relive the Vikings vs Rams shootout from 2018. pic.twitter.com/A8yYd8PW0W

— (@verysadvikings) January 9, 2025

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The following NFL betting odds are based on MyBookie Sportsbook.

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