NFL Week 13 Odds: Chargers vs Falcons Pick and Expert Analysis

As the 2024 NFL Week 13 matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Atlanta Falcons approaches, this Chargers vs Falcons pick is shaping up to be a close one, with both teams battling for playoff positioning after recent tough losses.

Betting Chargers vs Falcons Pick for the 2024 NFL Week 13
NFL Showdown: Can the Chargers Dominate the Falcons?

2024 NFL Season | 104th season of National League in the United States
Week 13: Thursday, November 28th – Monday, December 2nd, 2024

Betting 2024 Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons Week 13 Game

The Los Angeles Chargers and Atlanta Falcons meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in what promises to be a closely contested NFL matchup.

Both teams are fighting for playoff relevance as Week 13 unfolds, with the Chargers looking to bounce back from a tough loss against the Ravens, and the Falcons aiming to recover after a blowout defeat to the Broncos.

Heading into the matchup, Los Angeles has been slightly more consistent, with a 7-4 record.

The Falcons, at 6-5, are clinging to their playoff hopes in the NFC South.

The Chargers are favored by 2 points, but this game could go either way, especially with both teams showing weakness in recent weeks.

NFL Week 13 Sunday Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 28th, 2024 at 8:20 PM EST NBC Peacock Universo| Lambeau Field, Atlanta, WI

ATS Odds: Los Angeles -2
Money line Odds: Chargers -137, Falcons +112
Over/Under Odds: 48.5

Writer’s Thanksgiving Breakdown and Pick for the Chargers vs Falcons Game

Bet the Los Angeles Chargers to Win

The Chargers have been a mixed bag this season, alternating between strong wins and frustrating losses.

Justin Herbert has been the key to their offense, throwing for over 248 yards per game and ranking among the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks in yards per attempt.

However, the team has struggled to maintain consistency in critical moments, as evidenced by their 5-of-14 third-down conversion rate in their recent loss to Baltimore.

On defense, injuries have plagued the Chargers.

Key players like Joey Bosa and Derwin James are sidelined, leaving the unit vulnerable.

The Chargers rank 24th in total defense, allowing 357.1 yards per game, and have struggled against both the run and the pass.

Despite these challenges, their offense has enough firepower to keep them competitive, especially against a Falcons team with its own flaws.

For the Chargers to cover the spread, they’ll need Herbert to exploit Atlanta’s secondary, which has allowed a completion rate of 71.6%, the highest in the NFL.

Additionally, J.K. Dobbins and the run game must take advantage of Atlanta’s inconsistent run defense to establish balance.

Bet the Atlanta Falcons to Win

The Falcons enter this game desperate to rebound after an embarrassing 38-6 loss to Denver.

Kirk Cousins struggled mightily in that game, throwing for just 173 yards and an interception. (Check out this out: Betting NFL Week 13 Quarterbacks picks)

Atlanta’s offense has been inconsistent all season, relying heavily on Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to carry the load.

Robinson has been a bright spot, recording 32+ receiving yards in seven of Atlanta’s last eight home games.

Defensively, the Falcons have been hit-or-miss.

They’ve shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their pass rush led by Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett, but their inability to stop the run consistently has been a recurring issue.

Atlanta ranks 19th in rush defense, allowing 127.2 yards per game, which could be problematic against a Chargers team that likes to establish the ground game early.

For the Falcons to win or cover, they’ll need Cousins to find a rhythm and connect with Drake London and Kyle Pitts against a depleted Chargers secondary.

Establishing the run with Robinson and Allgeier will also be critical in controlling the clock and keeping Herbert off the field.

Chargers vs Falcons Pick and Best Bet

This game is shaping up to be a good one, with both teams showing strengths and weaknesses.

The Chargers’ injuries on defense make them vulnerable, but their offensive firepower led by Herbert gives them an edge.

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ reliance on their run game could allow them to control the tempo, but their passing inconsistency remains a concern.

The best bet for this game is the UNDER 48.5 points.

Both teams have struggled offensively in recent weeks, and the trends favor low-scoring games when these teams play on the East Coast.

Additionally, the Falcons’ reliance on the run game could limit possessions and slow the pace of the game.

Chargers vs Falcons Final Score Prediction

Los Angeles Chargers 23, Atlanta Falcons 20

NFL ML Pick: Los Angeles -2
NFL Total Pick: Under 48.5

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Los Angeles at Atlanta Betting Trends Today

Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 14 games
D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games
Kirk Cousins has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 11 games
Bijan Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home
Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games
Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games
Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games
Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games
Chargers are 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline
Chargers are 4-7 when betting the Over
Falcons are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline
Falcons are 4-7 when betting the Over

Falcons vs. Chargers Series History

Last meeting:
Chargers 20, Falcons 17: November 6, 2022: Week 9 – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Head-to-head (includes postseason games):
Atlanta Falcons lead series 8-4-0

#Falcons expecting physical game when resurgent #Chargers come to town Sunday — Running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a left knee injury vs. #Ravens https://t.co/Z9O5HuZHbl
— D. Orlando Ledbetter (@DOrlandoAJC) November 26, 2024