Dolphins at Rams Odds: MNF's Expert Picks for Week 10

The Miami Dolphins’ playoff hopes are on life support at 2-6, so it’s a must-win game Monday night as Tua Tagovailoa looks to snap a five-game primetime losing streak when the Fins visit the 4-4 Los Angeles Rams, who are very short favorites on the NFL odds.

Miami star WR Tyreek Hill is in question.

Opening MNF Dolphins at Rams Odds Subject to Change: Rams -2.5 (total 49)
Expert Prediction: Rams 27, Dolphins 24

Miami Dolphins MNF Lines +115

The Dolphins have lost on walkoff field goals in back-to-back weeks to see their playoff hopes all but disappear at 2-6. The Fins played really well last Sunday but lost 30-27 in Buffalo on a 61-yard field goal by Tyler Bass, a Bills franchise record and a career-long for Bass. The teams traded leads four times and combined for seven consecutive scoring drives in the second half.

Tua Tagovailoa

Tagovailoa completed 25 of 28 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. Tagovailoa rarely pushed the ball downfield, instead keeping the offense on schedule by accurately dinking and dunking. He threw a 14-yard touchdown pass to De’Von Achane in the second quarter and a game-tying seven-yard touchdown pass to Jaylen Waddle with 1:38 left in the fourth.

The 89.3 completion percentage was the highest of his career and the fourth-highest mark in Dolphins history. Tagovailoa’s 72.7 completion percentage this season ranks second in the league, behind only Detroit’s Jared Goff (74.1). Tagovailoa’s performance marked his 10th game with a passer rating of at least 120.0 and his best passer rating since Week 13 of the 2023 season against Washington (141.0 passer rating). Nine of those 10 games have been in the past three seasons under Coach Mike McDaniel.

The Streak

For the fourth consecutive week, the Dolphins ran for over 140 yards, which marks the longest active streak in the NFL and the second-longest streak by a team this season (Baltimore, 7). It’s the ninth time in franchise history that the team has run for over 140 yards in four straight games and the first time since 2009. Since Week 5, the Dolphins rank third in the league in rushing yards per game (170.0) and eighth in yards per carry (5.0).

De’Von Achane

Tailback Achane had a rushing and receiving score in the loss. It was Achane’s fourth career game with multiple touchdowns, the most by a Dolphin in their first 19 career games. Achane has scored 16 career touchdowns, tied for the third-most by an active player in the first 19 games of their career.

Tyreek Hill

The big injury question for Miami is All-Pro receiver Hill, who is a game-time call with a wrist injury. He didn’t practice either Friday or Saturday. McDaniel said that he was neither optimistic nor pessimistic that Hill would play Monday. Hill leads all Dolphins players with 446 receiving yards this season, although it is his worst statistical start since being traded to Miami in 2022. His production has picked up, however, since Tagovailoa returned from a four-game absence; Hill has averaged 76 yards over the Dolphins’ past two games after averaging 35 in the four before that.

Jaylen Waddle

Waddle is the No. 1 option if Hill has to miss time. Hill and Waddle have recorded seven games in which each topped 100 receiving yards since they became teammates in 2022. Miami has averaged 5.6 yards after catch per reception, which is ninth in the NFL. The Dolphins currently lead the league in most plays of 50-plus yards (23) and most plays of 10+ yards (606) since 2022 when McDaniel was hired. Miami’s six games with multiple receptions of 50-plus yards are the most in the NFL since 2022.

This will be Miami’s 89th all-time game on MNF, most in NFL history. The Dolphins are 43-45 in those, the second-most MNF losses of any team.

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MNF Dolphins at Rams Odds provided by MyBookie

Los Angeles Rams MNF Lines -141

The Rams won their third game in a row last Sunday, 26-20 in overtime in Seattle. The Seahawks drove to the Rams 16 on the opening possession of overtime and went for it on fourth-and-1 instead of trying a field goal. Bobby Brown III and Omar Speights stopped Kenneth Walker III for no gain, setting up Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense. Stafford hit Demarcus Robinson for the game-winning 36-yard TD.

Demarcus Robinson

Robinson has recorded multiple touchdown receptions in consecutive games for the first time in his career. Robinson is just the fifth Rams player in the Super Bowl era to record consecutive games with multiple touchdown receptions.

Matthew Stafford

Stafford finished 25 of 44 passing for 298 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He tied Eli Manning (366) for the 10th-most passing touchdowns in NFL history and orchestrated his 46th game-winning drive to tie Matt Ryan for the sixth-most in NFL history. Stafford has six passing TDs in the past two after only three in the first six games combined.

Since the NFL was founded, only 1 QB has thrown 6,000+ pass yards and 50 pass TD and won a Super Bowl.

John Matthew Freakin’ Stafford.

That’s it.
— Stafford9 (@LAR9MS) November 10, 2024

Cooper Kupp

Kupp was again his favorite target with 11 catches for 104 yards. It was his 12th career game with 10 or more catches and 100 or more yards, tied for the fifth-most since he entered the league in 2017. The former NFL Offensive Player of the Year has at least 10 catches and 100 yards receiving in four straight Monday night games.

A defensive switch also apparently was flipped after the Rams’ Week 6 bye. They are fourth in points allowed per drive since Week 6 after ranking 31st in that category before the bye. The return of Darious Williams has been part of that improvement, as has the recent dominance of rookie pass-rushers Jared Verse and Braden Fiske.

Braden Fiske

Fiske had a career-high two sacks last week. The Rams are the only team in the NFL to have multiple rookies record games with more than one sack (Verse had 1.5 sacks in Week 8 vs. Minnesota). DE Tyler Davis recorded his first career sack in the first quarter against the Seahawks and became the third Rams rookie this season to record at least half a sack (Verse has 3.5, Fiske has 3.0). The Rams’ 7.0 sacks by first-year players ranks first in the NFL. Verse leads rookies in sacks as well as quarterback hits (14), hurries (24), and pressures (39). The Rams’ defense recorded seven sacks last week, their most in a game since Week 5 of 2020 vs. Washington.

Los Angeles has scored points on defense in four consecutive games, tied for the second-longest streak in franchise history (Nov. 13 – Dec. 4, 1966). They also have allowed just four touchdowns in the last 10 red zone trips.

How to Watch and Bet Dolphins at Rams Odds

When: Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Where: SoFi Stadium
TV: ESPN
Stream Option: ESPN+

Dolphins vs Rams Series History

Miami leads 12-2 all-time and has won the past five. The last meeting was in 2020 when the Dolphins won 28-17 at home thanks to forcing then-Rams QB Jared Goff into two interceptions and a lost fumble. Tua Tagovailoa had a quiet game for Miami with just 93 yards passing and a TD.