Monday Night Football: Bills at Jets in the Week 6 with Allen vs. Rodgers QB Matchup

For only the third time in franchise history, the New York Jets have made an in-season coaching change with former defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich taking over in the Monday night game to conclude Week 6 against the visiting Buffalo Bills, who are short road favorites on the NFL odds.

Buffalo at New York Jets MNF: 20241 NFL Expert Analysis

Buffalo Bills -119

The Bills have lost back-to-back games after starting 3-0 and trying to avoid their first three-game skid since 2018. QB Josh Allen has never lost three in a row in the NFL as a starter.

Josh Allen

Allen really struggled in the 23-20 loss in Houston in Week 5, completing only 9-of-30 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown, adding 54 yards on four carries. It was the lowest completion percentage of his career. Allen was let down by his receiving core for almost the entirety of the game — Mack Hollins was wide open for a score early in the game, while Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Dalton Kincaid also dropped some catches that would have turned the flow of the game. Bills leading WR Khalil Shakir was out injured but likely back tonight.

Allen was cleared from a concussion during that Houston loss but he admitted after the game he was in some pain. “Big shot to the chest. Rolled my ankle. They flagged me for hitting my head, but felt good enough to go back in,” he said. Tonight is Allen’s 100th career game. His 231 career total TD (pass/rush/rec) are the second-most through 100 career games in NFL history behind Patrick Mahomes’ 237.

The AVG

Buffalo began the season averaging more than 30 points per game but in the last two have averaged just 15 points per game. In relation to the passing attack, head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Joe Brady said they remain confident in the players inside the building. Both TE Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox have not recorded more than 47 yards in a game this season and have one touchdown between the two of them.

Sean McDermott

“I’m confident in those guys, confident that we can put them in positions to use their talents and their potential,” McDermott said. “We’re going to work hard at that as we continue forward. And we do need to improve in that area as a whole here, so we got to do a better job on winning first downs and staying out of third-and-long.”

Josh Allen vs The Jets

Allen has a 7-4 career record versus the Jets and his numbers on Monday Night Football are even better. The Bills captain has the fourth-best passer rating of any player on Monday Nights since he entered the NFL in 2018 with a mark of 108.9. He also has 22 passing touchdowns against just six interceptions. The last two weeks, however, he has had trouble against the blitz, as his receivers have found it difficult to gain separation against the stronger coverage units of the Ravens and Texans. Over the last two games, Allen is 5-16 passing (31.3%) against the blitz for 34 yards with one touchdown, four sacks and a passer rating of 66.

Buffalo is still a top 10 team in the red zone scoring touchdowns 66.7% of the time (tied for 7th best). They’ve also been protecting the football as they have only two turnovers (tied for the lowest in the NFL).

We’re live with Coach McDermott as he meets with the media.#BUFvsNYJ | #BillsMafia https://t.co/uQANRUkSA6

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 12, 2024

Injuries

McDermott has ruled out DT Ed Oliver (hamstring) for Monday night’s game, Oliver’s second straight game missed. RB James Cook (foot/toe), CB Taron Johnson (forearm) and DT Austin Johnson (oblique) are questionable but Cook has said he will play.

New York Jets -103

The Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh last week in a surprise and replaced him on an interim basis with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who will continue to call defensive plays. Saleh reportedly was going to fire offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett until Saleh himself got canned. Ulbrich didn’t fire Hackett but took away play-calling duties and gave them to QBs coach and former Titans OC Todd Downing.

"He is an ultimate competitor" – CJ Mosley on Coach Jeff Ulbrich

Watch Jets Gameday Show at 7:30am on WCBS-NY Sunday! pic.twitter.com/bCHwPTBLdq

— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 12, 2024

Aaron Rodgers

QB Rodgers (ankle) practiced fully Saturday and was removed from the injury report. The big injury question involves LB C.J. Mosley (toe), listed as questionable. He has missed the last three games, but he has a legit chance to return. NB Michael Carter (back) is out. He probably will be replaced by Isaiah Oliver. RT Morgan Moses (knee) is poised to return after missing two games.

Rodgers has the worst numbers of his Hall of Fame career through five games. A problem has been handling the blitz as opponents have brought five or more rushers on more than 32 percent of his drop backs this season, the highest against him in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). It has forced him to get the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds more than half the time (56.6%), which is the highest rate for him since his 2017 season with Green Bay. And his efficiency has been compromised as well as he’s managed just a 74.8 passer rating when blitzed this season.

Todd Downing

The Jets need more balance in their offense to reduce the pressure on Rodgers, and that’s where new play-caller Downing comes in. His No. 1 priority is to revitalize the dormant rushing attack, saving Rodgers from having to drop back an absurd number of times. In last week’s 23-17 loss to the Vikings, Rodgers dropped back on 57 of 71 plays, including 19 straight during a stretch in the fourth quarter.

Rodgers has completed fewer than 60% of his passes in back-to-back games, an uncommon occurrence. He has gone three straight games only once in his career (2015). It’s probably because he’s throwing too much — 96 attempts in the past two games.

“In a two-decade career, he has very few blips on the radar,” Downing said. “I know that Aaron himself has said that the past couple of weeks aren’t up to his standard, but that doesn’t necessarily sound an alarm.”

The Bills have been gashed for some big plays on the ground and they rank No. 32 in yards yielded/rush (5.22). Conversely, the Jets need to wake up a dormant rush attack and there is too much talent here to be kept down for long. The Jets have averaged 2.7 yards per carry the last two weeks after picking up 4.0 yards a rush the first three weeks.

When Downing was the OC in Tennessee (2021-22), Ulbrich said the Titans were “tough” and “ruthless” and they “finished” and ran the ball and “played on their terms.” Expect Downing to instill a similar style of offense to when he was the Titans OC, which appealed to Ulbrich.

Bills vs Jets MNF Info

When: Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium
TV: ESPN, ABC
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: ESPN+

Bills vs Jets Series History

The Bills lead all-time series 69-58 (including postseason) but they have split the past four. Aaron Rodgers made his Jets debut at home in Week 1 last year and went down with a season-ending injury just four plays in. But the Jets won 22-16 in overtime on a Xavier Gipson 65-yard punt return for a score. New York’s aggressive defense forced four turnovers from Buffalo’s Josh Allen, who was picked off three times by Jordan Whitehead.

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