AFC Conference Winner Odds: Which Teams Can Bring Down the Chiefs

After 18 weeks of football, we are finally down to the 14 teams that could potentially win the Super Bowl.

If we are honest, though, you could probably cut that number in half in terms of teams with a realistic shot, but as we have seen in the past, strange things can happen once the pressure of the playoffs descends on the shoulders of every player taking part.

AFC Conference Winner Odds Analysis

Once you get beyond the #4 seed in the bracket, you are looking at teams that would probably need to win every game on the road just to get to the Super Bowl.

It is not an impossible task, but it is certainly not the path that any team would choose to take.

In the AFC, teams are focused on the Wild Card weekend, but you also know they will be thinking about the Kansas City Chiefs +140, the team that everyone may need to go through to win a championship.

With that in mind, let’s look at the other 6 teams and their chances of knocking off the Chiefs.

#2 Buffalo Bills

AFC Conference Winner Odds: +260

Coming into this season, the belief was that the Bills were about to take a backward step and that their window of opportunity was closing. They put that idea to bed rather quickly, going on to end the season with a 13-4 record, which was more than enough for them to win the AFC East and nab the #2 seed.

Given that they went a perfect 8-0 at home this season, you have to like their chances to make a deep run that could lead them to the AFC Conference Championship Game, where they could once again potentially face the Chiefs. These two teams have built up a real rivalry over the past few years, and while the Chiefs have had the best of that matchup, it is worth noting that Buffalo were one of only two teams to beat the Chiefs in the regular season.

#3 Baltimore Ravens

AFC Conference Winner Odds: +270

This season proved to be more of a struggle for the Ravens than most of us expected, thanks in large part to the Steelers pushing Baltimore hard in the race for the AFC North. The Ravens finished strong and took the division crown in the final week of the season, moving up to the #3 seed in the process. They will open at home against the Steelers, who they split a pair of games with during the regular season.

While you would like the Ravens to move on with a win at home, you cannot discount the fact that they have had problems in the postseason during the Lamar Jackson era. That makes a win in the opening round a little more up in the air. In terms of the Chiefs, Baltimore went on the road to face them in Week 1 and lost 27-20.

#4 Houston Texans

AFC Conference Winner Odds: +2800

After making it to the playoffs and winning a game with a rookie QB under center last season, the feeling was that the Texans would take another step forward this year. In truth, they are basically treading water, winning 10 games in the regular season, which was enough to give them the division crown in a weakened AFC South. The worry with this team is their apparent inconsistency, as they closed out the year with a .500 record, going 5-5 over their last 10 games.

That is not the kind of form that you want to be carrying into the postseason. The Texans have also faced the Chiefs on the road this season, losing that one 27-19. Keeping it close suggests that they could maybe get the win over KC on a different day.

#5 LA Chargers

AFC Conference Winner Odds: +1200

With Justin Herbert under center the feeling has always been that the Chargers have their QB, but that they needed more help. The arrival of Jim Harbaugh as the new head coach has moved things along in the right direction rather quickly. He has helped build the defense into a championship caliber unit, making the Chargers the best team in the league in the points surrendered department.

This team also finished the regular season in a high, winning 3 in a row and scoring 108 points in the process. This team appears to be clicking on all cylinders at the moment and have to be viewed as a potential dark horse. They lost 19-17 to the Chiefs on the road earlier this season, so they will definitely feel as though they could win a rematch against the current champions.

#6 Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC Conference Winner Odds: +3100

When you totally retool your QB room in the offseason, there is always a concern that things might not go particularly well. The Steelers started the season with Justin Field, who went 4-2, before handing the ball to Russell Wilson after he returned from injury.

He helped the Steelers add 6 more wins to their total, but the last few weeks have been more than a little concerning, with Pittsburgh closing out the regular season on a 4-game losing skid, a run that ultimately cost them the division crown. During that losing run, the Steelers went down to the Chiefs on Christmas Day, losing 29-10 in a game that was as lopsided as the score suggests. There is not a lot of confidence that Pittsburgh can get out of the Wild Card Weekend given their current form.

#7 Denver Broncos

AFC Conference Winner Odds: +2800

The Broncos have been a little streaky this season, but going 10-7 in a division that sent two other teams to the postseason is a sure sign that this is a very good football team. Bo Nix is starting to look like a legit starting QB, but you do get the feeling that this team might be a year away from becoming a serious playoff contender.

One thing they did that all but one other team failed to do was to beat the Chiefs, hammering them 38-0 in the last game of the season. That might be something of a false flag, though, as the Chiefs did not look particularly willing to win in that final game. That said, their earlier meeting ended in a 19-17 win for the Chiefs, so perhaps the Broncos are good enough to hang with the champs.

Five teams going for their first 🏆 #SBLIX pic.twitter.com/9meIHA97dZ

— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2025

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