NFL Quarterbacks Super Bowl Prop Odds Betting Analysis

NFL Quarterbacks Super Bowl Prop Odds Betting Analysis

One of them most popular group of Super Bowl props is to bet on how well quarterbacks from each team perform. This year’s two quarterbacks  are Matthew Stafford with the favored Los Angeles Rams and Joe Burrow with the Cincinnati Bengals. Check out Super Bowl QB Prop Odds, analysis, and free picks. 

QB Super Bowl Props Odds | NFL Betting

Super Bowl LVI

  • When: Sunday, Feb. 13
  • Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
  • TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards

  • Over 284 ½ -115
  • Under 284 ½ -115

Stafford averages 273.1 passing yards per game. In this one, depending on what the Bengals do on offense, he may have to pass for much more than that.

Cincinnati is a good football team. The defense will collapse the pocket on Stafford and he isn’t as mobile as Joe Burrow. But although the Bengals’ D is great, it plays bend but don’t break. Over looks more than possible.   

Super Bowl QB Prop Pick: Over 

Joe Burrow Passing Yards

  • Over 276 ½ -115
  • Under 276 ½ -115

Burrow averages just 259 passing yards per game. Versus Kansas City in the AFC Championship, Joe Cool threw for 250 yards. 

Burrow threw for 348 against Tennessee, but he threw for just 244 versus the Raiders. Which Joe Burrow will show up against the Rams?

Most likely, the 348 yards Joe Burrow. The Rams rank 22nd in passing yards allowed. Los Angeles is decent against the rush. 

More importantly, they know Burrow wants to play a slow game that leans on short passes, clock management, and handing the ball to Joe Mixon. So if the Rams shut down the rush, Joe will have to throw. 

Super Bowl QB Prop Pick: Over  

Matthew Stafford Total Pass Completions

  • Over 24 ½ -115
  • Under 24 ½ -115

The Rams aren’t a fantastic rushing team. LAR rushed for just 73 versus the Buccaneers and just 70 against the San Francisco 49ers.

Stafford completed 31 against the Niners and 28 versus the Buccaneers. It looks like over 24 ½ is close to a foregone conclusion. 

Super Bowl QB Prop Pick: Over 

Joe Burrow Total Pass Completions

  • Over 24 ½ -115
  • Under 24 ½ -115

Burrow completed 23 versus the Chiefs, 28 against the Titans, and 24 versus the Raiders. When the Bengals can run the football, Burrow doesn’t complete a ton of passes.

The Rams must shut down Joe Mixon and the rushing attack, which means Burrow should complete at least 25 passes in this game.  

Super Bowl QB Prop Pick: Over  

Matthew Stafford Total Pass TDs

  • Over 2 ½ +165
  • Under 2 ½ -240

Stafford didn’t throw more than 2 TDs in any 1 of the Rams’ 3 prior playoff games. Even in the 34-11 beating Los Angeles handed the Arizona Cardinals, Staff threw just 2 touchdown passes. The odds aren’t great but under 2 ½ is the logical play. 

Super Bowl QB Prop Pick: Under  

Joe Burrow Total Pass TDs

  • Over 1 ½ -170
  • Under 1 ½ +130

Over 1 ½ is the play. Burrow figures to throw 2 to 3 TD passes. The Rams will attempt to shut down the rushing attack. Not only that, but in the red zone, Burrow has a couple of tall, lengthy targets in C.J. Uzomah and Tee Higgins. So he can throw the ball up in the red zone and expect Uzomah and Higgins to beat the defender. 

Super Bowl QB Prop Pick: Over  

Matthew Stafford Total Rushing Yards

  • Over 5 ½ -110
  • Under 5 ½ -120

Stafford rushed for 22 yards against the Cardinals. He rambled for 6 yards versus the Buccaneers and rushed for 8 against the 49ers. Those stats imply Staff rushes for at least 6 against the Bengals.

But Cincinnati has one of the best pair of defensive ends in the NFL. Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson will force Stafford to rush up the middle, which means 5 ½ yards could be difficult to accomplish. 

Super Bowl QB Prop Pick: 5 ½ yards 

Joe Burrow Total Rushing Yards

  • Over 12 ½ -125
  • Under 12 ½  -105

Burrow is an escape artist. On passing downs, the Rams will try to rush Burrow with their front four and, maybe, rush a linebacker or strong safety.

Joe Cool should pick up over 12 ½ rushing yards on a single scramble. If he doesn’t, he will burn the Rams for a long pass. Burrow completes over 70% of his passes, which means not only can he get out of trouble with his legs, but he can also find the open receiver. 

So we must expect the Rams to know this and will take their chances with Burrow rushing the ball instead of giving up a long pass that could go for a TD. 

Super Bowl QB Prop Pick: Over

 
 

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