NFL Betting Analysis: Super Bowl Odds Favorites Thought the Years

NFL Betting Analysis: Super Bowl Odds Favorites Thought the Years

Not surprisingly, Super Bowl betting favorites haven’t done as well in recent contests. Back in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, the chalk almost always won via a blowout. But since around 2008, underdogs have performed well. Check out information on the last ten Super Bowls as well as a final Super Bowl record so you can keep betting against the Super Bowl odds

A Look at the Betting NFL Super Bowl Favorites Over the Years

Super Bowl LVI

  • When: Sunday, Feb. 13, 2022
  • Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
  • TV / Streaming: NBC / Peacock

2011 Super Bowl – Green Bay Packers -3 vs Pittsburgh Steelers 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were ready. Rodgers completed 24-of-39 for 304 yards and 3 TDs. The Pack beat the Steelers by 6 to prove that dogs don’t always have their day in the big game. 

Result: Packers 31 – Steelers 25

2012 Super Bowl – New York Giants vs New England Patriots -2.5 

In the 2008 Super Bowl, Eli Manning and the New York Giants upset the undefeated New England Patriots 17-14. In the 2012 rematch, oddsmakers didn’t make the same mistake. They installed Eli and the Giants a less than +3 underdog. NYG came through again with another victory over Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and mighty New England. 

Result: Giants 21 – Patriots 17

2013 Super Bowl – Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers -4.5 

Ravens versus 49ers pit brothers John Harbaugh with Baltimore against Jim Harbaugh with San Francisco. Colin Kaepernick had burst on the scene as a future NFL MVP signal-caller. Kap had a bad game, the type of game that can change the trajectory of a career, in the Ravens’ 34-31 victory. 

Result: Ravens 34 – 49ers 31

2014 Super Bowl – Denver Broncos -2 vs Seattle Seahawks

Peyton Manning was supposed to lead the Denver Broncos to a Super Bowl victory. Instead, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks blasted the favored Broncos in a 1980s like performance.  

Result: Seahakws 43 – Broncos 8

2015 Super Bowl – New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks -1 

Malcolm Butler’s game-clinching goal line interception sealed the deal for the Seahawks. New England won yet another Super Bowl while the Seattle Dynasty fell apart before it began. 

Result: Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24

2016 Super Bowl – Carolina Panthers -4.5 vs Denver Broncos  

NFL MVP Cam Newton looked like a Super Bowl winner heading into the 2016 game. But eventual game MVP Von Miller had other ideas. The Denver Broncos used excellent defense and a smart but unspectacular game from Peyton Manning to secure the victory. 

Result: Broncos 24 – Panthers 10

2017 Super Bowl – Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots -3 

Tom Brady rallied the Patriots from a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit to tie the game 28-28 in regulation. Then Brady marched the Pats down the field for 6-points, ending Atlanta’s dream of winning the Super Bowl. 

Result: Patriots 34 – Falcons 28

2018 Super Bowl – Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots -4.5 

The 217-2018 NFL season was a dream one for the often maligned Philadelphia Eagles. Behind quarterback Carson Wentz’s arm, the Eagles finished the regular season with the best record in football. Wentz was injured during the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. But journeyman quarterback, and eventual Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles came to the rescue. 

Result: Eagles 41 – Patriots 33

2019 Super Bowl – New England Patriots -2.5 vs Los Angeles Rams  

In one of the most boring Vince Lombardi Trophy games in history, Bill Belichick’s defense locked down on Sean McVeigh’s offense and Tom Brady made no mistakes in a 13-3 game.

Result: Patriots 13 – Rams 3

2020 Super Bowl – Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers 

Patrick Mahomes had to rally his troops for the improbable victory. Mahomes go so hot, and the Chiefs became so unstoppable, that not only did KC win after being down 10 points heading into the fourth quarter, but the Chiefs easily covered the spread. 

Result: Chiefs 31 – 49ers 20

2021 Super Bowl – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs -3 

Kansas City suffered a major blow when Andy Reid’s son and a Chiefs’ assistant coach, Britt Reid, got into a fatal car accident the Thursday before Sunday’s Super Bowl. It was obvious that KC didn’t have their minds on football. Brady and the Buccaneers took advantage. 

Result: Buccaneers 31 – Chiefs 9

Favorites have won four of the last six Super Bowl. This tells us no matter who plays on February 13, we must give the team receiving points the benefit of the doubt both against the spread and on the moneyline.


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