Every year at the NFL Draft, you have a bunch of teams going in looking for the QB that they hope will turn the fortunes of their franchise around.
It is a task that is easier said than done, as history has proven that guys coming out of college that look like “can’t miss” prospects end up being a bit of a disaster.
My NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Odds Analysis
For every QB that comes in and makes it in the league, there are several more who bounce around for years as backups before being left out in the cold.
The job of quarterback might well be the toughest in all sports, and the pressure that comes with the position is something that some players simply cannot handle.
We had a new crop come in for the 2024 season, and now that we are into the second half of the schedule, we have a very good idea of how they all look.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the current crop of QB rookies, listing them in the order in which they were drafted.
^Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
In fairness to the players who have failed in the past, not all the blame can be placed on their shoulders. Rookie QBs who come in and are given the starter’s job right away are generally going to teams that are in a bit of a mess.
The Chicago Bears certainly fit that bill, as there has been a high level of dysfunction in that franchise for a few years now.
The Bears offense doesn't look much different with Caleb Williams than it did with Justin Fields 😬 pic.twitter.com/QyCVpOr0Or
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) November 8, 2024
Their last rookie QB, Justin Fields, was deemed surplus to requirements and is now doing a fine job with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Caleb Williams is being forced to shoulder a lot of the work as a rookie, and you have to say that he is doing a decent job of it, at least for now. The Bears are 4-4, but they have lost 2 in a row.
Williams has thrown for 1,665 yards (23rd overall), 9 TD and 5 INT. Those are certainly not gaudy numbers, but this is a guy that needs help on a mediocre team.
^Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
With a recent ownership change in Washington, this now looks like a franchise with some purpose. They appear to be making all the right moves, not the least of which was drafting Jayden Daniels as the 2nd pick overall in the NFL Draft.
Daniels has been nothing short of brilliant through his first 9 games, leading the team to a 7-2 record, which is good enough for the lead in the NFC East.
Washington QB Jayden Daniels has been the leagues most effective scrambler this season with an NFL-high 327 rushing yards and 17 first downs.
— Derrick (@Steelers_DB) November 7, 2024
But Pittsburgh’s defense has only allowed 15 yards and 1 first downs on scrambles all season long.
Collision course. Heavyweight fight. pic.twitter.com/F5xX2D38Hf
Were it not for what Brock Bowers is doing with the Raiders, you would have to say that Daniels would be a shoo-in for the Rookie of the Year this season.
This young man looks incredibly composed on the field and is doing a great job of limiting his errors, tossing just 2 INT versus 9 TDs.
He has passed for 1,945 yards (13th overall).
^Drake Maye, New England Patriots
The glory days for the Patriots are now very much in the rearview mirror, as they are now on their 2nd rookie QB that they hope will somehow get close to what Brady accomplished in his time there, which is a truly untenable position.
Mac Jones looked decent for a minute before crumbling and hitting the trading block, while Drake Maye, who was chosen 3rd overall in the draft, has been in and out of the team as the starter this season.
Drake Maye is the 1st QB in NFL history to have:
— Patriots on CLNS Media (@PatriotsCLNS) November 7, 2024
– 700+ pass yards
– 60.0+ comp. %
– 6+ pass TDs
– 200+ rush yards
– 1+ rush TD
in his 1st 4 career starts. #patriots #newenglandpatriots #nfl
⚡️ by @PrizePicks @Gametime pic.twitter.com/u6cuLsgwAb
He has made appearances in 5 games, throwing for 770 yards, as well as 6 TD versus 4 INT.
During those 5 games, the Patriots have won just once, which is not really on the shoulders of Maye, as the expectation was that this team was going to struggle this year. Until they can build a better team. Maye’s numbers are probably not going to improve.
^Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
After going out and dropping some serious dough to secure the services of Kirk Cousins, the Atlanta Falcons surprised everyone by drafting Penix Jr. 8th overall in the draft.
🎙️ FALCONS IN FOCUS: @tori_mcelhaney and I sat down with first-round draft pick Michael Penix Jr. to learn all about his football journey that landed him in Atlanta.
— Terrin Waack (@TerrinWaack) November 8, 2024
🎧 Spotify: https://t.co/Uv0nfM9ZQw
🍎 Apple: https://t.co/UhNycCT248
📺 Youtube: https://t.co/pMl75pYTZV
That pick set the cat among the pigeons, but the Falcons made it very clear that Cousins was their starter, which has proven to be true.
We will need to wait and see what this young man does on the field when he finally gets his chance.
^J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
Notable Vikings players who have suffered significant or season-ending injuries in the last 13 months:
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) October 29, 2024
Justin Jefferson
Kirk Cousins
T.J. Hockenson
Mekhi Blackmon
J.J. McCarthy
Christian Darrisaw
Drafted 10th overall as the replacement for Cousins, McCarthy was expected to be the starter for the Vikings this year, but a brutal preseason injury put him out for the season, so this is another guy that we are going to need to wait and see with.
^Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
The Broncos are another team that has had issues at the position since Peyton Manning hung up the shoulder pads.
Bo Nix, who was drafted 13th overall, is their latest pick to try and turn things around. The results to this point have been mixed, which is exactly what you would expect from a rookie starter.
Broncos QB Bo Nix needs to stop 'overthinking' long passes https://t.co/vkoQqvbcDI pic.twitter.com/nzroGbcwaC
— Broncos Wire (@TheBroncosWire) November 8, 2024
Nix has certainly had his moments, but he has also had rookie mistakes mixed in, but through it all, the Broncos are at 5-4 and very much alive in the Wild Card picture.
Bo has thrown for 1.753 yards with 8 TD and 6 INT, the latter of which is a number that he needs to improve upon.
The jury is still out on Nix right now, but there appears to be more positive than negative.
^Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints
Drafted in the 5th Round, the expectation was that Rattler would sit behind Derek Carr and learn from an NFL veteran.
Plans don’t always go as intended, though, with Rattler thrown into action after an injury to Carr a few weeks back.
Rattler has lost all 3 games that he started and has thrown more INTs (2) than TDs (1).
You certainly can’t drop all the blame on his shoulders, though, as this Saints team was slumping even before the injury to Carr.
That said, it does appear that Carr will return in Week 10, sending Rattler back to the bench.
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