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MLB Rookie of the Year 2024: Expert Analysis of Top Contenders & Current Betting Odds

MLB Rookie of the Year: Expert Analysis of Top Contenders & Current Betting Odds

Arguably the longest two days/nights of the year for sports bettors are the two right after MLB’s All-Star Game, which was won by the American League 5-3 on Tuesday night behind game MVP Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox.

Regular-season action doesn’t restart until Friday, so today we look at the current odds to win Rookie of the Year in each league provided by MyBookie Sportsbook.

Expert Prediction: Skenes wins NL award and Gil takes AL honors
 

NL Rookie of the Year

Paul Skenes -1299

This section won’t be very long as Pittsburgh right-hander Skenes, who didn’t even make his big-league debut until May 11 but has had arguably the greatest start to a career for a rookie pitcher ever at 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA, .092 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in 11 starts.

He has had two outings of at least six innings and no hits allowed, including his last start before the break in Milwaukee, when he went seven innings and whiffed 11.

At 99 pitches, the Pirates weren’t about to let Skenes try and finish the no-no, and it would end in the eighth inning.

Skenes is the -1299 favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, and the only way he likely doesn’t win at this point is if the 2023 No. 1 overall pick gets hurt fairly soon. He might win the NL Cy Young.

He has permitted two runs or fewer in nine of his 11 major league starts.

Skenes on the All Star Game

Paul became a rare rookie to start the All-Star Game on Tuesday night and retired the side in the bottom of the first inning in Arlington, Texas.

Skenes showed impressive speed reaching 100.1 mph and struck out four skilled AL batters including Kwan, Henderson, Soto, and Judge. Soto was the only one to reach base with a walk.

Jackson Merrill +440

Padres outfielder Merrill is +500 for NL Rookie of the Year and no other player is below +2000. Merrill would easily be the favorite most years as he’s hitting after batting .278 with 12 homers, 46 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. He also was part of the NL All-Star team.

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AL Rookie of the Year

This race could go down to the wire with Texas outfielder Wyatt Langford, Yankees pitcher Luis Gil, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser and Red Sox outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela.

Wyatt Langford +122

Langford missed some time on the injured list earlier this season but also had the season’s first cycle in late June against Baltimore.

The 22-year-old got the most difficult part of the cycle out of the way early, hitting a triple to lead off the fourth inning.

He followed that up with a double in the fifth, a single in the sixth and in the eighth, he completed the cycle with a home run off the Orioles’ Matt Krook.

Langford became the youngest player in franchise history (22 years, 228 days) to hit for the cycle and second rookie to do it.

Overall, Langford is batting .254 with five homers, 40 RBIs and eight steals.

Luis Gil +189

Gil was the favorite for a while, then hit a rough patch, like most Yankees starting pitchers have in recent weeks.

But Gil is back in form it appears, as in his final start before the break, he earned the win against the Orioles last Saturday, allowing one run on five hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over six innings.

Gil allowed a run in the fourth but was otherwise fantastic, finishing with two perfect innings and departing with a 6-1 lead.

Luis, who followed a terrific 14-start stretch to start the season with an abysmal three-start span that likely cost him a spot in this week’s Midsummer Classic in Texas, delivered a second straight solid performance to close out the first half.

On the season, he is 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 118:49 K:BB across 102.1 innings.

Colton Cowser +800

Baltimore’s Cowser was the American League Rookie of the Month for March/April as he ended that period batting .303/.372/.632/.1.004 with six homers and 18 RBIs.

He ended April ninth in the AL in FanGraphs.com Wins Above Replacement among league position players. But struggles would follow that torrid hitting stretch.

While his OPS for this year of .740 puts him 13 percent above AL average, his OPS was .580 in May, .679 in June and is .490 so far in July.

Overall, Cowser is batting .219 with 12 homers and 34 RBIs.

Rafaela, who hails from Curaçao, was successful in that mission. He’s still a work at the plate in batting .246 with 11 homers and 52 RBIs but already is a stellar defender – both at center field and shortstop.

“Offensively, he started slow average-wise, but he’s been consistent in every aspect,” Cora said. “He’s getting better.”

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