ATP 2022 Australian Open Betting Update: Can Outsiders Deliver?

The 2022 Australian Open is just two weeks away, and as we get closer to the opening Grand Slam tennis tournament of the season, it’s time to start asking ourselves who will win?

The bookies have done an excellent job displaying the favorites, and while you can’t argue with the ATP betting odds, it’s only fair to think about what could go wrong for the favorites and which underdog has the tools to cause an upset.

In this Tennis Betting preview, we take a look at the three outsiders who might be able to upset the top dogs and should be worth considering as a longshot bet against the Australian Open odds.

2022 Australian Open Betting News and Updates | January 5th Edition

ATP 2022 Australian Open Outsiders To Watch

Rafael Nadal (+1275)

The bookmakers have priced Rafael Nadal as the fourth favorite to win the 2022 Australian Open at +1275, which is well behind the top three in Novak Djokovic (+164), Daniil Medvedev (+244), and Alexander Zverev (+340). But while a very substantial price gap, it’s a justifiable one.

The Spanish tennis star didn’t have the best season in 2021, and while his game wasn’t the best, he was also struggling with health issues. Most notably, he has suffered a foot injury which ended his season prematurely, and his comeback at the Abu Dhabi Exhibition was met with mixed results.

But unlike Djokovic, Nadal is vaccinated and is Australia-bound. That is not to say that Djokovic won’t attend, but there are no reports of the Serbian star getting vaccinated, so his appearance in Melbourne remains under question.

Even though Nadal hasn’t been too impressive in 2021, he is still a 20-time Grand Slam winner and has consistently done well in Australia. Admittedly, he won only once (2009), but he has reached at least QF each year since 2007 – the only exception was 2016 when he exited the tournament in R1.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1375)

The rising Greek star is priced at +1375 to win the Australian Open, which seems quite generous for someone who made it to the semi-finals in 2021. So even though Tsitsipas has yet to win the Australian Open or any Grand Slam, he has a 71% win rate on the Australian clay and two SF appearances (2019, 2021).

What’s more, the Greek has made it to the finals of the French Open in 2021, where he narrowly lost against Novak Djokovic, so it’s fair to say that he has the tools needed to cause an upset.

One thing that could concern you about Tsitsipas and his chances to cause an upset in January are his poor results in the latter half of the 2021 season. Most of that was due to his elbow injury, which prevented him from playing at his best, but as long as the Greek has had enough time to recover, we should expect Tsitsipas to do some damage and possibly even compete for the title.

Andrey Rublev (+3000)

Andrey Rublev is still hunting for his first Grand Slam title, but the current no.5 should definitely feel hopeful it might happen this season. Last year, Rublev locked in his career-best placement in Australia when he reached QF before he got eliminated by his compatriot and eventual finalist, Daniil Medvedev.

Admittedly Rublev hasn’t shown enough to be considered one of the top favorites, but he did well against other top players in 2021. Most notably, Rublev made it to two ATP Masters 1000 finals in Monte-Carlo and Cincinnati and won gold at the Olympics in mixed doubles.

Whether that is enough to warrant a bet on Rublev at +3000 is up to debate, but we can be sure that the 24-year-old has the potential to become one of the best tennis players in the world.