NFL ATS Week 17 Betting Picks: Expert Bets to Watch

As the NFL regular season approaches its final stretch, NFL ATS Week 17 betting picks are crucial for savvy bettors looking to capitalize on late-season drama and playoff implications. With teams jockeying for position and motivations running high, Week 17 presents a variety of opportunities to bet against the spread (ATS) and find value in what can be some of the most unpredictable games of the year.

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2024 NFL season | 104th season of National Football League in the United States
Week 17: Wednesday, December 25th – Monday, December 30th, 2024

Betting ATS Picks in the Sixteenth Week of the Season

As the NFL regular season nears its conclusion, Week 17 offers plenty of opportunities for bettors to find value against the spread (ATS).

With playoff implications and late-season motivations at play, these games can be some of the trickiest to handicap.

Below, we break down the best ATS bets for each game, offering analysis and picks for Week 17.

Chiefs vs. Steelers Pick

Wednesday, December 25th, 2024

The Chiefs head into this matchup with some significant injury concerns, including Chris Jones, Jawaan Taylor, and Jack Cochrane.

Meanwhile, the Steelers look poised to welcome back George Pickens, adding a much-needed boost to their offense.

Despite the Chiefs’ 14-1 record, their metrics suggest they’ve been riding a wave of late-game heroics rather than dominance.

Against a disciplined Steelers team, that strategy may falter.

Playing on the road in a short week, on Christmas, adds another layer of difficulty for Kansas City.

Pittsburgh, well-coached and effective at home, is primed to cover in this spot.

Take the Steelers and the points.

NFL ATS Picks: Steelers +3 (-110)

Ravens vs. Texans Pick

Wednesday, December 25th, 2024

Both teams are battling wide receiver issues heading into this game.

The Ravens may be without Zay Flowers, while the Texans are down Tank Dell and possibly John Metchie III.

Combined with strong defensive performances recently—Baltimore ranks fourth in opponent EPA per play and Houston fifth—this game is shaping up to be a defensive battle.

The Ravens’ and Texans‘ defenses will likely suppress scoring opportunities, especially given the offensive injuries.

With a total set at 46.5, the UNDER appears to be the best play in this matchup.

Look for a low scoring Xmas game!

NFL ATS Picks: UNDER 46.5 (-105)

Seahawks vs. Bears Pick

Thursday, December 26th, 2024

The Seahawks are simply the better team in this matchup.

The Bears’ defense, which showed promise early in the NFL season, has fallen apart since Week 11, ranking 30th in both opponent EPA per play and success rate.

Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense remains a top unit.

Offensively, the Bears lack consistency and face a Seahawks team with multiple paths to victory.

Seattle’s balanced attack should easily handle Chicago, making this one of the more confident ATS picks this week.

NFL ATS Picks: Seahawks -3.5 (-110)

Chargers vs. Patriots Pick

Saturday, December 28th, 2024

The Chargers have endured a tough stretch of games but now get a reprieve against a struggling Patriots team.

New England’s red zone offense is among the worst in the league, and they face the league’s best red zone defense in Los Angeles.

The Chargers also hold a clear edge on third-down efficiency, which should allow them to control the game.

With the Patriots‘ offensive struggles and the Chargers’ superior talent on both sides of the ball, this matchup sets up for a comfortable Los Angeles victory.

NFL ATS Picks: Chargers -4 (-110)

Broncos vs. Bengals Pick

Saturday, December 28th, 2024

While it’s usually risky to bet the UNDER in a Bengals game, this matchup offers a strong case for it.

Denver’s defense excels against the pass, ranking first in opponent dropback EPA, while Cincinnati faces a tough test against the Broncos‘ pass rush.

On the other side, Denver’s offense has struggled on the road, averaging significantly fewer points and yards compared to their home performances.

With both defenses likely to limit scoring opportunities, the UNDER at 50.0 presents solid value.

NFL ATS Picks: UNDER 50 (-110)

Cardinals vs. Rams Pick

Saturday, December 28th, 2024

Kyler Murray’s struggles in December continue, and with the Cardinals eliminated from playoff contention, motivation could be an issue.

Adding to their woes, Arizona may be without its top two running backs, leaving their offense severely undermanned against a Rams team that thrives in December.

The Rams, playing with pride and momentum, should comfortably cover the spread against a depleted and demoralized Cardinals squad.

NFL ATS Picks: Rams -5.5 (-115)

Jets vs. Bills Pick

Sunday, December 29th, 2024

The Bills enter this game with the league’s hottest offense and face a Jets defense that has been woeful since Week 10.

Buffalo’s ability to attack both on the ground and through the air makes them a difficult matchup for New York, which has struggled to contain either.

While there’s some risk of Buffalo easing off if their playoff position is locked, their talent and form should still be enough to cover the spread.

NFL ATS Picks: Bills -9.5 (-115)