French Open Frenzy: Can Paolini Upset Swiatek? Decoding French Open Betting Odds

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How They Got Here

Paolini

Paolini, meanwhile, is 22-10 this season and 10-3 on clay courts.

She wasn’t even among the top-10 betting favorites heading into the tournament, but has benefited from some upsets in the draw and made some of her own.

She has been on court an hour longer than Swiatek through six matches.

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With -2000 odds, it’s tough to bet on her even if you think she’s going to win as there’s not much juice.

Paolini is certainly capable of winning this, but it seems incredibly unlikely considering Swiatek is a three-time French Open champion and hasn’t lost in 18 matches.

You kind of had the sense she would cruise through to the finals after surviving that scare from Osaka and she has done just that. 

Swiatek is 2-0 against Paolini and both of those matches lasted fewer than 17.5 games, which is the total for Saturday’s final.

Paolini also failed to cover the +6.5 (+106) spread listed for the final in her two previous meetings against Swiatek.

The Polish star beat Paolini 6-3, 6-0 at the 2022 US Open and scored a 6-2, 6-1 victory over her on clay in 2018.

While Paolini didn’t cover the numbers in either of those matches, it’s reasonable to expect a much closer match on Saturday with so much on the line.

The over 17.5 total is the best bet as Swiatek can still win in straight sets and hit the over, i.e. 6-3, 6-3. 

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