2021 Golden Globe Awards Expert Analysis

2021 Golden Globe Awards Expert Analysis

Written by on January 13, 2021

Because the Grammy Awards switched their 2021 event date from January 31 to some time in March, the 78th Golden Globes on February 28 is the first awards ceremony of the year. The Golden Globes is often a harbinger for the Academy Awards. Check out posted Golden Globe Awards odds for categories in the Film & Movie division as well as analysis and early picks!

Entertainment News: 2021 Golden Globe Awards for Film & Movies

2021 Golden Globe Awards

  • When: Sunday, Feb. 28, 2021
  • Where: Beverly Hilton, Los Angeles, CA
  • TV: NBC
  • Streaming: NBC App

Best Film Screenplay – To Win

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 +135
  • Mank +450
  • Nomadland +500
  • One Night in Miami +500
  • The Father +550
  • On The Rocks +1200
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom +1800
  • Promising Young Woman +1800
  • Soul +1800
  • First Cow +2500
  • News Of The World +2500

Based on the odds, The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a lock for the Best Film Screenplay award, right? It could be. The movie got a ton of press while it feels like Golden Globe voters want to give Aaron Sorkin something. But Mank is about a screenwriter. The early choice for Best Picture is an underdog to win the Golden Globe, meaning Mank could end up grabbing the screenplay prize because . . . yep, Globe voters will want to give the movie something.

Golden Globe Prediction: Mank  

Best Film Comedy / Musical – To Win

  • The Prom +240
  • On The Rocks +325
  • Hamilton +350
  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm +450
  • Palm Springs +550
  • French Exit +1000
  • Let Them All Talk +1400
  • Personal History of David Copperfield +1400
  • Emma +1800
  • The Forty-Year Old Version +2500

The Prom, On The Rocks, Hamilton, and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm are the favorites. We could throw Palm Springs into the mix. Hamilton might be a lock if not for the fact that it’s, well, the original Broadway production on screen. It’s difficult to understand why the Globes nominated the Broadway show for an award. It’s literally a filmed version of the Broadway show.  

Hamilton could win, though, because it’s so popular. But we’re thinking voters go with a more traditional movie. Which film gets the nod? On The Rocks is the pick. Yes, it feels like a Lost in Translation rehash. It’s not. Although every bit as funny, Bill Murray plays a much different character while Rashida Jones, like always, is great. Sofia Coppola provides her usual deft hand with the camera and the screenplay is wonderful. Also, it’s funny.  

Golden Globe Prediction: On the Rocks

Best Film Director – To Win

  • Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) +180
  • David Fincher (Mank) +220
  • Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) +450
  • Regina King (One Night in Miami) +550
  • Paul Greengrass (News of the World) +850
  • Florian Zeller (The Father) +900
  • Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) +900
  • Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) +2000
  • Ryan Murphy (The Prom) +2000

This is a tough one. Fincher has won a Golden Globe before, which is why we’re backing Chloe Zhao. A Chinese filmmaker, Zhao made the most human movie of the year. Her story about forced nomad-living is brilliant and that word doesn’t even describe how good it is. It’s impossible to look past Zhao in this category. So we won’t.

Golden Globe Prediction: Chloe Zhao 

Best Film Drama Actor – To Win

  • Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) +150
  • Anthony Hopkins (The Father) +225
  • Gary Oldman (Mank) +450
  • Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) +600
  • Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) +600
  • Tom Hanks (News Of The World) +1200
  • Steven Yeun (Minari) +1400
  • George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) +2000
  • John David Washington (Malcolm And Marie) +2500

Oldman was a lock until everyone saw how brilliant Chadwick Boseman was. Most will believe Boseman won because he passed away last year. People who think that didn’t watch Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Boseman gives the best performance of his career and the best performance by an actor this year. 

Golden Globe Prediction: Chadwick Boseman 

Best Film Drama Actress – To Win

  • Frances McDormand (Nomadland) +195
  • Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) +200
  • Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) +500
  • Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) +500
  • Vanessa Kirby (Pieces Of A Woman) +500
  • Kate Winslet (Amonite) +1400
  • Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) +1600
  • Zendaya (Malcolm And Marie) +1600
  • Yeri Han (Minari) +2000

By the time they hand out those golden, orb statutes, Viola Davis will be an even money chalk. Sophie Loren has an outside shot. McDormand is always tough. But for sheer power performance, no actress delivered the way Davis did in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. We’ve said before that Viola Davis is the best thespian on the planet. She proved it again, by giving one of her greatest performances.    

Golden Globe Prediction: Viola Davis 

Best Film Drama – To Win

  • Nomadland +115
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 +400
  • Mank +450
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom +550
  • The Father +750
  • One Night in Miami +800
  • Da 5 Bloods +1600
  • News Of The World +1600
  • Promising Young Woman +1600

Every film on the list is deserving. The chalk looks exceedingly tough, though. Nomadland is a film about people who, because of the Great Recession, must live as nomads. It’s a movie about forced freedom that puts the ridiculousness of the last U.S. Presidential Election, the one less than 3 months ago, in perspective. While Trump and Biden were arguing about mostly fictitious nonsense, people like Fern, that’s Frances McDormand’s character, were worried and continue to worry about staying alive. It doesn’t get more raw than that. Expect the Globes to hand the award to Zhao’s awesome movie.  

Golden Globe Prediction: Nomadland