March Madness Odds: Betting Trends to Keep In Mind

We are at the stage of the college basketball season where we are all getting a little impatient as we wait for the start of March Madness.

2024 NCAA Basketball Betting | MyBookie Sportsbook | NCAA Basketball March Madness Betting Trends to Keep In Mind When Wagering

We still have 10 days to wait until all the action begins, but we can start to get serious about our brackets and wagering once Selection Sunday is out of the way and we know what the final matchups look like. Even though we still have to hang in there until all of that is done, there are some things we can do to prepare for wagering on the tournament, as there are some definite trends to be aware of that might well help us come out of the other side with some extra money in our pockets. There will, of course, be some major upsets, as there always are, but here are some trends that could help you safely navigate March Madness betting.

The #1 Seed is Basically A First Round Lock

If you are looking to make some easy money in the opening round and settle into a groove, then the #1 seeds are the way to go. Last season, we saw FDU beat Purdue in a stunning upset, but that was only the second time in the history of the tournament that a #16 seed had toppled a #1 seed, with the current record in those matchups sitting at 150-2. That is a trend that simply cannot be ignored, and while you are not going to get great odds on those #1 seeds for the straight up win, putting them together in a parlay ticket can be a little more rewarding.

Vegas Odds March Madness
MyBookie Current Odds to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament

Know When To Get Off The Underdog

Every year, we always seem to have one underdog team that upsets the odds and goes on a deep run, but the harsh reality is that they will only go so far. Even if one of your underdog picks spring the upset in the opening round, there is no guarantee that they are going to continue drawing on that magic in Round 2. The harsh reality of March Madness is that it is a higher seeded team that generally goes on to win the whole thing. In the history of the tournament, the lowest seeded team to win it was Villanova, who became National Champions in 1985 as the #8 seed. The cream always seems to find a way to rise to the top, so don’t get too enamored with underdogs.

March Madness Bets
MyBookie Favorite to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament

The 7 Versus 10 Trend

Perhaps the toughest games to wager on are those that feature teams who are, for the most part, pretty evenly matched. There are some bettors who will skip these games entirely, opting instead to go with the low hanging fruit, but there is some money to be made here. For example, in the games that have a #7 seed going against a #10 seed, the higher seeded team has won close to 61% of those matchups. It is not a staggeringly high percentage, but it’s one that could put you in profit if you can zero in on those matchups and narrow it down to the ones that seem most likely to be profitable. Trends are great, but you still need to put some work in.

A #1 Seed Wins the National Championship More Often Than Not

If all you are really concerned about is wagering on a team to win the National Championship, it can seem a little daunting when you look at the initial bracket. The fact of the matter, though, is that it really shouldn’t be that way. In the history of March Madness, a #1 seed has won it 63% of the time, with the #2 seed winning it 13% and the #3 seed winning 11% of the time. In short, you could essentially be looking at a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right if you solely focus on the #1 seeds in the tournament. Yes, that all seems rather simplistic, but if you are not all about breaking down games to try and figure out a winner, and simply want to pick one team, you could just stick with a #1 seed.

March Madness Basketball Odds
MyBookie Current Odds to Win NCAA Basketball Tournament

The #8 Versus #9 Trend

If you are looking for underdogs and value, these might be the matchups to focus on in the opening round of March Madness. These tend to be the toughest games to pick, but there is a trend that you might want to pay attention to. In the last 52 meetings between the #8 and #9 seeds, the underdog has covered 30 times. While that is a hit rate of about 58%, it is more than enough to put you in profit when you consider the underdog odds. Again, you may want to get a little pickier in choosing which games to wager on, as there is zero guarantee that this trend will continue at the same rate in perpetuity.

Vegas Odds for March Madness
MyBookie NCAA Tournament Betting

Watch Out for Winning Streaks

It doesn’t really seem to matter which sport you talk about, when it comes to the postseason, the teams entering the playoffs on a winning run tend to make a deep run. With that in mind, let’s talk about a trend that applies to winning runs and March Madness. Specifically, we are looking at the Sweet 16 with this trend, as that is where the streaks tend to really come into play. When we reach this stage of the tournament, look for teams that have a winning run of 10 games or more, as they tend to be on a roll that is tough to break.

These are just a few of the trends that you should perhaps be looking at when it comes time to start wagering on March Madness. As convincing as some of these may be, just remember that March Madness is so popular because of the unpredictable nature of the tournament. There are going to be some losses along the way, so just accept that and carry on.

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament
MyBookie Vegas Lines March Madness

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?