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Golden State at Portland Game 3 NBA Odds Analysis

Written by on May 6, 2016

Here’s the good news for Portland: it appears the Blazers still won’t have to deal with Golden State Warriors superstar Steph Curry in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series on Saturday night as the series shifts to the Pacific Northwest. Here’s the bad news: not having Curry hasn’t mattered yet for the defending NBA champions and they are favored on NBA odds to take a 3-0 series lead.

Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers Game 3 NBA Odds Analysis

When: Saturday, May 7, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Moda Center, Portland
Stream: WatchESPN
NBA Odds: Warriors -3 (211)


Warriors at Trail Blazers Game Background

Curry (sprained right knee) didn’t practice on Thursday and Steve Kerr doesn’t expect him to play in Game 3. Curry did some on-court work after practice but his status for Saturday remains doubtful. Warriors GM Bob Myers said earlier in the week that Curry needs to play “a little bit of 3-on-3 or 5-on-5” before returning to action, which he’s yet to do. To try and speed up his rehab, Curry got a platelet-rich-plasma treatment in his knee. In PRP treatment, blood is drawn to isolate the platelet cells and then re-injected into the injured body part.

Golden State dominated Game 1, which was never in doubt. Portland played much better in Game 2, leading by as many as 17 and taking an 11-point lead into the fourth quarter, the largest deficit the Warriors have faced at home all season. Then it all fell apart for the Blazers as the Warriors outscored Portland 34-12 in the fourth.

Klay Thompson scored 10 of his 27 points in the fourth quarter as the Warriors. Golden State outscored Portland 28-8 in the final nine minutes, with the Warriors going 8-for-12 from the field and the Blazers 3-for-14. The 12 points allowed tied the fewest the Warriors have allowed in the fourth quarter of a postseason game. The previous instances came in 1975 against the Bulls and 2015 against the Cavaliers. Both of those seasons ended with Warriors winning championships. Golden State made 7-of-8 uncontested shots in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers made 17-of-23 uncontested shots in the first three quarters but only 2-of-5 in the fourth. Portland led clear until the 5:33 mark of the fourth quarter, when a three-pointer by Thompson gave the Warriors a 94-93 lead.

Draymond Green had 17 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists and four blocks, the first player to reach all of those numbers in a playoff game since Tim Duncan in 2003. The Warriors became the first team to outscore an opponent by at least 20 points in a quarter in consecutive playoff games since the Miami Heat did so against the Orlando Magic in 1997

The Warriors have won four straight playoff games by double figures for the first time since 1947, the NBA’s inaugural postseason, when the Philadelphia Warriors earned a franchise-record five straight playoff wins by at least 10 points.

Meanwhile, Damian Lillard led Portland with 25 points. He was nonfactor in the final 12 minutes, going 0-of-3 with no points. Through the first three quarters, Lillard had his 25 points on 8-17 shooting. With six 3-pointers (of 11) in Game 2, Lillard (59 3-PT) has moved into a tie with Clyde Drexler for the second most 3-pointers in postseason franchise history. Lillard has shot 19-of-38 from beyond the arc over his past four contests.

Mason Plumlee grabbed 11 rebounds for Portland, marking his seventh consecutive game with 10+ rebounds. Maurice Harkless scored 11 points and has now recorded 10+ points in a season-high seven consecutive games (includes regular season).

Expert Prediction

Portland is 3-0 at home during the 2016 NBA playoffs, and 79-37 (.681) all-time at home in the playoffs. The Trail Blazers have won 12 of their past 13 games at home (includes regular season). That’s nice and all, but the Blazers are losing Game 3. Give the points and go over the total.