What Are the Odds of Picking a Perfect March Madness Bracket Picks?

The Impossible Dream: Betting on the the Near-Impossible Feat of a Perfect Bracket

2025 College Basketball Season | 86th season of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I men’s college basketball national champion
March Madness: Tuesday, March 18th – Monday, April 7th, 2024

Betting the Perfect March Madness Bracket

Creating the prefect March Madness NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament is one of the most difficult things to accomplish in life.

It’s virtually impossible considering the odds.

How impossible? Put simply, hitting the lottery is a 500 million to 1 shot.

Creating the perfect March Madness bracket has hire odds than hitting the lottery.

So when people like Warren Buffett offer $1 million to create the perfect March Madness bracket, the payout is actually at an underlay.

Check out the true odds of creating the March Madness bracket.

Then see what to do so that you can create a March Madness bracket that although won’t be perfect, can at least help you win any contest and your March Madness bracket pool.

Writer’s Rundown on the March Madness Bracket Expert Picks

Odds of Creating a Perfect March Madness Bracket

• 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 if you guess
• 1 in 120.2 billion if you can handicap basketball games

It’s obvious none of us are going to create the perfect March Madness NCAA Tournament bracket.

But that’s okay.

We can still win our pool and win money in online contests by creating a winning bracket.

Check tips and tricks to create a bracket that keeps you in the game from the first round to the National Championship.

Tips to Create a Winning NCAA Tournament Bracket

The first thing you should do is create two lists.

The lists below are based on the top 16 teams on the Basketball Power Index (BPI), which is a ranking based on a computer algorithm.

For sure, your top 16 is going to change.

We add the head coach and then add the highest scoring player from the team onto our list.

Once we’ve got our top 16 we can go through the process of handicapping teams.

Don’t forget to write down the player’s position.

This is key because what you’ll find is that guard play is all important to reaching the Final Four and winning the National Championship.

Current BPI Top 16 with HC’s and Highest Scoring Player

• Auburn – Bruce Pearl and Johni Broome F
• Houston – Kelvin Sampson and L.J. Cryer G
• Duke – Jon Scheyer and Cooper Flagg G
• Tennessee – Rick Barnes and Chaz Lanier G
• Kansas – Bill Self and Hunter Dickinson C
• Gonzaga – Mark Few and Graham Ike F
• Arizona – Tommy Lloyd and Caleb Love G
• Iowa State – T.J. Otzelberger and Keshon Gilbert G
• Alabama – Nate Oates and Mark Sears G
• UConn – Dan Hurley and Alex Karaban G
• Baylor – Scott Drew and Norchad Omier F
• Illinois – Brad Underwood and Kasparas Jakucionis
• Florida – Todd Golden and Walter Clayton Jr.
• Texas Tech – Grant McCasland and Darrion Williams F
• Cincinnati – Wes Miller and Simas Lukosius G
• Texas – Rodney Terry and Tre Johnson

Fill Out a List like What’s Above

It’s going to help you choose the winning team in individual matchups.

Why do you want to figure out matchups? In basketball, matchups are the most important thing to look for when handicapping games.

If a team has a mismatch at a position with their top scoring player, hence why we create a list and add the top scoring player, they are likely to advance in the matchup.

The second tip on how to use the list is to handicap head coaches.

Dan Hurley, Scott Drew, Nate Oates, Mark Few, Rick Barnes, Bruce Pearl, and Bill Self have had massive NCAA Tournament success, meaning they’ve taken teams to the Elite Eight and the Final Four.

Keep those two things in mind as you check out the bracket creation process.

Process to Create a Winning NCAA Tournament Bracket

1 – Choose Your National Championship Team

You want to create your bracket from the National Championship and backward to the Final Four, then the Elite Eight, and then start with the first round games.

If you don’t know which teams are going to make the Final Four and win the National Championship, handicapping first round games is meaningless.

Decide on the team you believe will win the title.

If you feel, as an example, Coach Barnes and the Tennessee Vols finally get it done, fill out your bracket backward from the Vols winning the title all the way to the first round.

When choosing  a title winner, make sure to:

• Pick a team that’s no worse than a 4 seed
• Choose a 1 or 2 seed if possible
• Don’t worry about individual potential matchups.
  If you think the team wins the title, go for it.
• Choose a team from your created list of the top 16.

2 – Choose Your Final Four Teams

Follow the same process for the other three teams in your Final Four.

Choose the teams from your created list.

Make sure to emphasize:

• Guard play over forward or center play
• Don’t forget that many forwards serve as guards/forwards in today’s college hoops.
  Example: Duke’s Cooper Flagg plays point guard, shooting guard, small forward and can even play power forward even though he lists as a guard.
• You can roll the dice on a 5 or 6 seed but be careful.
  Rarely does a team that is lower than a 4 seed make the Final Four.

3 – Choose your Elite Eight

Underdogs play well up until the Sweet 16.

So we want to choose our Elite Eight teams before handicapping the first round.

Consider filling out the rest of your Elite Eight from our top 16 list.

• Again, emphasize top guards over top forwards unless the forward is also the top assist player for the chosen team
• A team that leans on the center, like Purdue in 2023-2024, must also have great guard play.
  You may have to look into that team before choosing them for your Elite Eight.
• Coaches matter for the Elite Eight.
  Consider a coach that has had Elite Eight and/or Final Four success in the past.

4 – Choose First Round Teams

Now you handicap first round games.

• Don’t buy into the hype.
  Teams that look great on paper because they’ve beaten up bad teams in their conference can fold against Power 4 teams.
• Underdogs that won their conference tournament tend to bounce in the first round.
  Think about this before backing hot Power 4 Conference winners.
• 1, 2, 3, and 4 seed upsets are rare in the first round.
  Don’t get caught up in the “madness.”
• 12 seeds beating 5 seeds is still a thing but it’s not as prevalent as it used to be.
• You must choose some upsets to win your bracket.
  Don’t be shy.

5 – Choose Second Round Teams

Go through the above process in your second round games.

You’ve already handicapped and created your bracket form the National Championship to the Elite Eight and you’ve handicapped your first round games.

So choosing your second round games shouldn’t take long.

6 – Choose Sweet Sixteen Teams

You have to choose a couple of upsets to make the Sweet 16.

This is why we create the bracket backwards at the beginning from title winner to Elite Eight and then start with the first round.

If you don’t choose at least one underdog to make the Sweet 16, you won’t win your bracket.

So pick and underdog at this point to take on your Elite Eight squad.

Things to Keep in Mind

Go Guards

If there is no mismatch, consider choosing the team with the better guards.

Guard play is essential to advancing in the NCAA Tournament.

A team like Auburn plays with three guard and sometimes four guard lineups.

Auburn could be difficult to beat this season because Bruce Pearl has an excellent starting five that can run circles over many opponents.

Cooper Flagg lists as a guard.

He’s the most unique player in college hoops.

Consider Duke a true contender if Flagg is healthy come March Madness.   

Defense, Defense, Defense

Teams that play terrific defense get it done in the tournament.

Give more props to a squad that plays excellent man-to-man and zone defense.

Kelvin Sampson preaches excellent defense.

Jon Scheyer and Duke play man-to-man and zone D.

So Duke and Houston should be difficult to handle come tournament time.

Consider the Bench

Don’t just consider the bench, consider how the head coach uses the bench.

The bench is where a team like Duke could have issues.

It’s early but the Blue Devils don’t have a deep bench.

If a team is missing their star player from your list, drop them from the list.

In this method, everything starts with the top 16 list that we create from the BPI.

By following this method you can make sure to create a winning March Madness bracket.

Your bracket won’t be perfect but you will create one that will give you a great chance to win your March Madness pool and any March Madness contests.

Good luck!

Bet the NCAAB | College Basketball Live Betting MyBookie Betting Lines for the College Basketball

That's great and all, but where's the 'team that ruins your March Madness bracket' award? 🏀💔

— Perfect Pool (@perfectpoolplay) December 24, 2024

Test Your College Basketball Picks with a MyBookie Account

While perfect march madness bracket betting may be nearly impossible, with the right strategies and a bit of luck, you can still make solid picks.

Sign up today to get access to march madness bracket expert picks and start betting with confidence!

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

MyBookie March Madness Betting Bracket
MyBookie Odds for the College Basketball

MyBookie College Basketball

---

College Basketball Odds | Online Betting

mybookie App Download App

Download Remind me later