March Madness Betting Analysis: Trends and Stats That Can Help Your Bets

March Madness Betting Analysis: Trends and Stats That Can Help Your Bets

After the Super Bowl, the NCAA Tournament is the most bet on sporting event in the United States. Billions of dollars are wagered every season on what everyone commonly refers to as “March Madness.”

When brackets are filled out, some may go with all “chalk,” while others are looking for the right upset pick to ride out far into the bracket. We’re going to analyze some March Madness Betting trends and stats to use to help you make your picks before or during the NCAA Tournament. 

Which Betting Trends & Stats Could Help Predict March Madness Surprises?

Ken Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

Pomeroy does a great job of breaking things down the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of each team. Many of the past winners of the NCAA Tournament have been in the top 20 in both the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings categories. When looking at some of the favorites for this season, we’re going to use Purdue as an example. 

Matt Painter may be the best X’s and O’s coach in the country. Purdue has a great offense and runs lots of great set plays. In looking at the latest Pomeroy rankings, Purdue is the #1 ranked team in offensive efficiency.

Offensive efficiency is classified as the number of points scored per 100 possessions. Purdue is scoring 123.5 points per 100 possessions, which is the best ranking in the nation.

Now we’re going to look at the defensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers. This is where Purdue tends to struggle.

They are currently ranked 116th in Pomeroy’s rankings. If Purdue wants to go far in the tournament, they’re going to need to work on their defense.

Now we’ll take a look at another tournament favorite, the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga is known for their offense, but the Zags also play some good defense.

Gonzaga is second in Pomeroy’s offensive rankings, while they’re seventh in defense. We know that the West Coast Conference isn’t very strong from top to bottom, so those rankings may leave a little to be desired.

When looking at a surprise team to ride out far in the bracket, let’s take a look at the Connecticut Huskies. Danny Hurley’s squad is currently sitting at 17-7. They play in a very tough Big East Conference.

UConn is ranked 27th in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. These sorts of balanced squads tend to do well in the NCAA Tournament.

Sagarin Rankings

Jeff Sagarin also puts together a comprehensive set of rankings. He ranks each conference and then ranks each team in that conference. This is a statistic-based ranking.

When you want to pick a mid-major as one of your dark horses, these rankings can be a huge help. You want to see how highly the conference is ranked and if there are other strong teams in that conference. 

Other Statistics

When betting on spread throughout the Big Dance, look at how each team has done against the spread throughout the season and against some of their tougher opponents. This can be a big help in making your bets. 

 
 

College Basketball Betting Center



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