Purdue vs. No. 23 Michigan State

Purdue vs. No. 23 Michigan State | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Written by on January 7, 2021

Fridays always are a bit slow around college basketball and the only ranked team in action this Friday is No. 23 Michigan State as the Spartans host Purdue looking for a little payback for an embarrassing loss to the Boilermakers a year ago. MSU will be favored on the NCAAB odds.

How to Bet Purdue at Michigan State NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

Last Meeting

The clubs met once last season and Purdue rolled 71-42 at home – Michigan State almost never loses like that. It was Sparty’s lowest point total in nearly eight years. MSU finished with season-lows in field goals (18), 3-pointers (two), field goal percentage (35.3) and 3-point percentage (12.5). The 42 points were their fewest since a 42-41 loss at Illinois on Jan. 31, 2012.  “Probably the worst beating I’ve taken as a coach,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said.

Why Bet on Purdue? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Boilers (7-5) have lost three of four, most recently 66-58 at then-No. 15 Illinois on Saturday. The Boilermakers started the second half with a 16-0 run to take a 39-33 lead before Illinois found its range from behind the 3-point line.  Illinois shot 48% (25 of 52) from the field overall, while Purdue was 22 of 56 for 39%.

“We weren’t giving ourselves as many cracks at it because we kept turning the ball over,” Boilermakers coach Matt Painter said. “We had good stretches in the game, then we had bad stretches. We need to replace the bad stretches with average stretches.”

Painter was coaching his 523rd game at Purdue, tying Ward “Piggy” Lambert for second on Purdue’s games coached list. Purdue was outrebounded for just the second time this season (39-33) and had just six offensive rebounds, resulting in five second-chance points.

According to KenPom.com, Purdue ranks 315th in experience (1.07 years). Indiana is the next least-experienced team in the Big Ten (1.32). Among Power-6 schools, only North Carolina, Kansas State, LSU, Duke, Kentucky and Auburn are less experienced.

In its seven wins, Purdue is shooting 49.5 percent from the field and has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.52 (134 / 88). In its five losses, Purdue is shooting just 42.1 percent from the field. Purdue is 130-13 under Painter when winning both the turnover and rebound battle, having won nine straight games.

The Boilers were supposed to play Nebraska on Tuesday but that was postponed as mutually agreed upon by both teams due to health and safety concerns. The two schools will work with the Big Ten Conference to reschedule the game at a later date. It was Purdue’s first cancellation of the season, although its season-opening tournament, originally scheduled for Cancún, was moved to Florida because of concerns about traveling during the pandemic.

Why Bet on Michigan State? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Spartans (8-3) played arguably their best game of the season on Tuesday in trashing No. 15 Rutgers 68-45. Michigan State had a 17-point scoring edge in the second half with a late offensive surge to win a second straight game after opening conference play with three straight losses. The Scarlet Knights) made just 31% of their shots. In addition, Rutgers started 0 of 7 at the foul line and finished making just 3 of 12 free throws.

“Coach (Tom) Izzo had them ready,” Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell said. “I didn’t have our guys ready. We have to play better on the road in a league like this.”

Michigan State led by six points (28-22) at the break and extended the lead to 11 points, 41-30, after a pair of free throws early in the second half. Rutgers was able to pull within six points, 36-30, on a layup from Paul Mulcahy, but Aaron Henry responded immediately with a jumper, triggering a 25-10 run over a span of 8:54.

Henry scored 20 points, grabbed eight rebounds, had four blocks and two steals to lead the Spartans. It was the 29th time his career scoring in double figures for Henry and the fourth time in the last five games he has led the team in scoring. Joshua Langford finished with 11 points and two assists, while guard Rocket Watts added 11 points off the bench and forward Joey Hauser had nine points and 14 rebounds.

Michigan State out-rebounded Rutgers, 45-25, and collected 37 defensive rebounds. After turning the ball over 14 times in the first half, the Spartans committed only four in the second half. The 45 points scored by Rutgers were the fewest by an MSU Big Ten opponent since a 62-44 win over Ohio State on Feb. 17, 2019.

Expert Prediction
  • Michigan State 73, Purdue 68

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