Analyzing The Best College Football Week 3 OVER/UNDER Picks
Oregon at Nebraska, Saturday, September 17, 3:30 PM ETPick: OVER 73
The Oregon Ducks, in spite of winning their first two games of the season, have been rather vulnerable in defending the run, something Oregon’s head coach Mark Helfrich was keen to admit after his team allowed a number of big running plays and got gashed for 193 rushing yards against Virginia last week. This weakness sets up a good opportunity for the Cornhusker to put up some solid points against the Ducks. Besides Tommy Armstrong’s ability to make plays aerially (the QB has tallied 485 passing yards and four touchdowns through his first two games), the Cornhuskers have tallied 430 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns (averaging 4.6 yards per carry) in their two games. This unit should be very capable of exploiting Oregon’s vulnerabilities in pass rushing as well as in defending the run, especially in the middle of their defense. Meanwhile, Dakota Prukrop (602 passing yards and 6 passing TDs plus 55 rushing yards and 1 running TD) should be able to continue his strong career start at Oregon, alongside veteran stars like RB Royce Freeman. And on top of everything, the OVER has been a dominant trend for both teams, with the total going OVER in 13 of Nebraska’s last 19 games and the total also going OVER in 5 of Oregon’s last 6 games. With that in mind, Oregon (48.50 PPG scored) and Nebraska (47.50 PPG scored) should be able to combine for a highly likely OVER total this Saturday.
Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers, Saturday, September 17, 7:30 PM ETPick: UNDER 53
After what has looked an eternity of offensive futility, it appears as if the Tigers have found their leader in sophomore quarterback in Drew Lock. Coming off a 280-yard, 1-TD performance with zero TDs in Mizzou’s season-opening loss to West Virginia, Lock went 24-of-37 passing yards for 450 passing yards (30 yards short of a school record) and 5 TD passes (tied for a school record)in Mizzou’s lopsided 40-point win over Eastern Michigan. The Tigers, who amassed 647 yards of total offense vs. EMU—the most since Sept. 17, 2011—will be hoping for a continued efficiency from the Lock-led offense. There’s just one problem with these hopes; the Tigers will be facing a solid Georgia defense that has held them to 6 and 0 points over the past two seasons, with the total going UNDER in those two meetings. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs, who are 2-0 UNDER the total this season, have been struggling to implement their triple-threat offense, virtually getting no production from their passing game and defenses planning better to keep Nick Chubb and his running buddies quiet. That’s something the Tigers—who are a renowned defense-first team with stifling players in the O and D lines—should be able to take advantage of. Add to the fact that both teams love to dominate time of possession with lengthy plays, and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of Missouri’s last 14 games; it goes without saying that a low-scoring UNDER total looks very likely here.
Texas at California, Saturday, September 17, 10:30 PM ETPick: OVER 76.5
In one of the rare coincidences of the week, Texas and Cal enter Week 3 with each of the two teams averaging exactly 45.50 PPG scoring through the first two games of the season, a scoring mark that is tied for 22nd-best in the nation. And after putting up 50 points in the season-opening upset win over then-#10 Notre Dame and then totaling 41 points over UTEP last week, you don’t have to be a genius to figure out that the Shane Buechele-led Longhorns have the potential to put up another high-scoring effort over the leaky Golden Bears’ defense (ranked at 109th in the country with 38. PPG allowed). This defense was torched for 30 points vs. Hawaii in Week 1 and 45 points in last week’s loss at San Diego, so it stands to reason that Texas will get the job done offensively. Conversely, Cal’s QB Davis Webb has looked every bit like his predecessor Jared Goff in the offense, passing for a whopping 963 yards in just two games—which is good for second-most in the nation—to go along with 9 passing TDs. Webb’s strong passing skills and a strong group of receivers in Cal, led by star WR Chad Hansen (28 receptions, 350 receiving yards and 3 TDs), is the reason why the Bears’ air-raid offense rank second-best in the country with 4815 passing yards per game. Add that to the favorable trends such as the total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas’s last 6 games, and the total has also gone OVER in 5 of California’s last 6 games; a really high-scoring game (most likely north of 80 points) can be expected here.
Iowa State at TCU, Saturday, September 17, 12:00 PM ETPick: OVER 61
Things got from bad to worse for the Cyclones, who followed their 25-20 home loss to Northern Iowa with a shameful ISU’s offense was no-show in last week’s 42-3 road loss at the Iowa Hawkeyes. And from the sweeping look of their schedule, things won’t be getting any easier for the Cyclones in their bid for their first win of the year, as they will be taking on the Horned Frogs this coming weekend. TCU owns a solid offense that is averaging 48.50 PPG scoring this season, so beating ISU and its shaky offense shouldn’t be a biggie. Fortunately for the Cyclones, TCU has its share of vulnerabilities in the defense, allowing 41 PPG and 400 total yards per game. Essentially, that’s the reason TCU’s the total has soared above the set OVER mark by a nation-leading combined 62 points (averaging at 31 PPG) this season, including the 48-38 loss to Arkansas last week that went well above the OVER 58 total. With TCU capable of putting up 50-plus points on ISU while the Cyclones also score at least three TDs against the leaky Horned Frogs’ defense; we definitely love the ISU at TCU game to go OVER.