NFL Week 1 Common Betting Mistakes
Overvaluing Preseason PerformancesOne of the oldest and worst mistakes that many NFL bettors make in Week 1 is to overvalue a team’s preseason performance. For example, many gridiron gamblers may have thought the Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles or Minnesota Vikings were primed for hugely successful regular season after compiling identical 4-0 record
Well, if you overvalued the preseason performances of each team and thought they were probably playoff bound, then it likely cost you as Baltimore finished the regular season at 8-8, Philadelphia at 7-9 and Minnesota at 8-8. Conversely, you may have thought that Dallas’ and Pittsburgh’s 1-3 preseason marks meant they would be mediocre at best before the Boys finished 13 and Pittsburgh 11-5. Don’t overvalue the preseason people…please!
Believing the HypeThe first mistake you want to avoid making is believing the hype. You see, many NFL bettors make the age-old mistake of believing the offseason hype surrounding either their favorite team or a few teams they are ‘hoping’ will succeed in the coming season as opposed to teams they ‘know’ will be.
Simply put, don’t believe every preseason forecast your read or it could cost you early on when you find out that much of the ‘expert’ advice you’ve gotten about a particular team is way off. For example, let’s say you thought the addition of quarterback Brock Osweiler was going to make the Houston Texans a monster title contender in the AFC last season because you read numerous experts say so.
Well, it likely cost you as the former Broncos signal-caller failed miserably in his only season in the Lone Star state. If you had formed your own opinion based off of Osweiler’s play with Denver in his final season, then you would have known that the former backup to Peyton manning was mediocre at best, which is why he lost the starting job just before Denver’s Super Bowl 50 run.
Believing someone else’s ‘hype’ can cost you early on. Form your own opinions in conjunction with the ‘expert’ insight you’re looking for and you’ll make wiser wagers for sure.
Misreading Roster Losses and GainsDon’t misread roster losses and gains as far as free agent acquisitions and draft additions. For example, maybe you thought that Seattle Seahawks trade a couple of years ago of all-pro center Max Unger for all-pro tight end Jimmy Graham would be just the thing that Russell Wilson and the Seahawks needed to become even more potent offensively.
Well, that clearly has not been the case with the loss of Unger completely throwing Seattle’s offensive line out of whack so much that they’re still trying to rebuild the o-line nearly three years later. Make sure you’re not overvaluing or misreading the additions or losses of any team in the offseason as it could cost you early on before you get a better handle on how a team’s new players will perform.
Unrealistic ExpectationsDon’t place unrealistic expectations on any team based on what they did in the preseason or the season before. For example, let’s say you like the Miami Dolphins and you’re pleasantly pleased with their fine 10-6 campaign in Adam Gase’s first season a year ago and you believe the Fins are now headed in the right direction (they are).I wouldn’t necessarily go around believing they can beat out Tom Brady and the New England Patriots this coming season based on their double-digit winning season from a year ago.
You need to understand that Ryan Tannehill is no Brady or Dan Marion (hell no) and that he’ll never be, so don’t go around believing that Miami is on the verge of a special campaign when your gut is telling you that Brady and company are still the team to beat. ‘Keep it 100’ as the young people say today and you’ll be much better off with your Week 1 NFL picks.