Are the Patriots a safe bet against the Chiefs in the NFL odds?

Buffalo at New England Free Pick & Betting Spread

Written by on September 29, 2016

While most football fans and observers expected the New England Patriots to lose one or two games during Tom Brady’s four-game suspension, the Pats have yet to lose in three outings this season. Now, the Buffalo Bills will look to hand the Pats their first loss of the season in New England’s final game before Brady returns. Let’s find out if the Bills can get either the SU win or ATS cover in the NFL lines.

Here’s a Closer Look at the Buffalo at New England Free Pick, Betting Spread & TV Info

When: Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 1:00 PM ET Where: Gillette Stadium TV: CBS Radio: Buffalo / New England Live Stream: NFL Live NFL Odds: New England Patriots -4

Why Bet on the Buffalo Bills?

The Bills are desperate and the Pats have tons of injuries. Buffalo got their first win of the season by spanking Arizona 33-18 in Week 3 to easily cover the NFL betting line as a 4.5-point underdog. Safety Aaron Williams returned a blocked field goal 53 yards for one touchdown and veteran running back LeSean McCoy rushed for 110 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor completed 14-of- 25 for 119 yards while rushing nine times for 76 yards and one score. For the season, Taylor has thrown for 527 yards with three touchdown passes while adding 112 rushing yards on 16 carries. McCoy has rushed for a team-high 227 yards and three scores. The Bills are ranked 13th in scoring (23.6 ppg) and 17th in points allowed (22.6 ppg).

Why Bet on the New England Patriots?

They’re ‘due’ for a loss and Rex Ryan teams always give Bill Belichick trouble. The Patriots spanked Houston 27-0 in Week 3 despite the fact that rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett was making his first career start. The former North Carolina State star completed 11-of- 19 passes for 103 yards while rushing for 48 yards and one touchdown on eight carries. Veteran running back LeGarrette Blount rushed 24 times for 105 yards and two touchdowns.  The Patriots are averaging healthy 27.0 points per game (sixth) while limiting their opponents to a paltry 15.0 points per game defensively.

My Expert Prediction and Pick

The Pats shut out Houston in Week 3 as rookie third-string backup Jacoby Brisett made his first NFL start but the Bills got their first win of the 2016 season by manhandling dysfunctional Arizona in Week 3 and they’re my pick for the big upset in this contest. New England won both regular season meetings a year ago and have won eight of the last nine meetings overall, but I remain undeterred. The Bills are 3-0- 1 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record and 4-1- 1 ATS in their last six games against their AFC East division rivals. MyBookie bettors should know that, despite their dominance, the Pats are just 2-4- 1 ATS in their last seven home games against the Bills. I say, the Pats have to lose one game without Tom Brady and this one is it! My Pick: Buffalo 24 New England 21
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