Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl LIV Spread Betting Pick

Written by on January 28, 2020

Will Nick Bosa and the rest of the San Francisco 49ers’ stout defense be able to keep superstar signal-caller Patrick Mahomes and the offensively-explosive Kansas City Chiefs in check long enough to get the big ‘upset in Super Bowl 54 this coming weekend? Will Kansas City’s now, improved defense be able to keep the Niners’ powerful rushing attack from going bonkers to help head coach Andy Reid get the first Super Bowl title of his long and illustrious career?

With the point spread for Super Bowl 54 being the lowest in five years and the second-lowest since San Francisco was a 1-point favorite over Cincinnati in Super Bowl XVI way back in 1982, let’s find out if the Chiefs are the pick to take care of business as a slight favorite or whether the Niners have what it takes to cover the chalk! Super Bowl 54 gets underway on Sunday February 2 at 6:30 PM ET, live from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl LIV Spread Betting Pick

Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy:  13°C/56°F
  • Humidity: 67%
  • Precipitation: 10%
  • Wind: 9 mph NW
  • Cloud Cover: 24%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Why Bet On San Francisco?

By now, even most casual football fans know the Niners have a stingy defense that limits the opposition to just 19.4 points per game (eighth) while also ranking first against the pass (169.2 ypg). However, San Francisco also ranked second in scoring in the regular season by putting up 29.9 points per game, mostly because of a stellar rushing attack that finished second in yards per game (144.1 ypg).

Frisco ha also won four straight games dating back to the regular season while covering the spread in each of their last three games, including their overwhelming 37-20 smackdown of Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. As running back Raheem Mostert went off for 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Team Statistics

  • Total Yards: 374.4
  • Passing Yards: 236.9
  • Rushing Yards: 137.5
  • Points Scored: 25.9
  • Total Yards: 381.6
  • Passing Yards: 263.9
  • Rushing Yards: 117.7
  • Points Allowed: 24.9

Why Bet On Kansas City?

The Chiefs have won an impressive eight straight games dating back to the regular season while going a near-perfect 7-0-1 ATS along the way. While the Chiefs finished the regular season ranked fifth in scoring (28.2 ppg) and an identical fifth in passing behind star quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

What most casual football bettors don’t know is that the Chiefs have played some excellent defense this season in finishing seventh in points allowed (19.3 ppg) while finishing eighth against the pass (221.4 ypg). The Chiefs have put a mind-boggling 86 points on the board in getting past Houston and Tennessee in the AFC playoffs to reach Super Bowl LIV.

Team Statistics

  • Total Yards: 381.1
  • Passing Yards: 237
  • Rushing Yards: 144.1
  • Points Scored: 29.1
  • Total Yards: 281.8
  • Passing Yards: 169.2
  • Rushing Yards: 112.6

Super Bowl LIV Betting Trends for Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

  • 49ers are 6-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record
  • San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog
  • 49ers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall
  • Under is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last 5 playoff games
  • Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record
  • Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite
  • Over is 7-2 in Chiefs 9 versus a team with a winning record

Chiefs vs 49ers Expert Analysis and Prediction

While I’m expecting Super Bowl 54 to be a knock-down, drag-out affair of the highest order and I certainly don’t see the 49ers getting blown off the field the way the Texans and Titans were in the divisional round and AFC Championship game, I just don’t see the Niners being able to stop Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs offense that can literally put points on the board every time someone takes a bathroom break.

Not only that, but I still don’t trust Frisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo, seeing as how he’s thrown for a meager 208 yards with one touchdown and one interception in two playoff games this postseason. Conversely, Patrick Mahomes is back to looking like the best player in the league after throwing for 615 yards with eight touchdowns with no interceptions in two playoff games this postseason. For his career, Mahomes has tossed 11 postseason TD passes while throwing just one interception and leading the Chiefs to a 3-1 mark in the postseason.

Last, but certainly not least, you should know that Super Bowl favorites have gone a solid, 28-20-2 against the spread (ATS) in the annual season-ending showcase. While the 49ers have gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points, the Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. I like Kansas City to win and cover the spread in Super Bowl 54 in an absolute thriller!

Pick: Chiefs 31 49ers 27