Are the Chargers a Safe NFL Betting Pick in Week 4 Against the Eagles?

Green Bay at Philadelphia Odds, Expert Pick & TV Info

Written by on November 25, 2016

It’s a matchup of two of the NFL’s marquee franchises on Monday night to close Week 12, but neither the Packers nor Eagles have been playing like a marquee team of late. Green Bay (4-6) and Philadelphia (5-5) both need this to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Eagles, who are unbeaten at home this year, are slight favorites on NFL odds.

Green Bay at Philadelphia Odds, Expert Pick & TV Info

When: Monday, Nov. 28, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Stream Option: WatchESPNOpening NFL Lines: Eagles -3.5 (47)

Why Bet on Green Bay?

At 2.5 games behind in the NFC North, the Packers aren’t winning the division. Their remaining schedule is pretty tough even with three of five at home: vs. Texans, vs. Seahawks, at Bears, vs. Vikings and at Lions. Green Bay lost its fourth straight game last Sunday, 42-24 in Washington. While the Packers allowed 30 or more points for the fifth time in six games — all losses — Aaron Rodgers and the offense couldn’t keep up. He was 26 of 41 for 351 yards and three touchdowns, but the result was the same.

Already missing offensive linemen J.C. Tretter and T.J. Lang, the Packers lost cornerback Demitri Goodson (knee), replacement right guard Don Barclay (shoulder), linebacker Blake Martinez (knee) and safety Kentrell Brice (back). Martinez is week to week with a sprained MCL. He had played 400 snaps this season, holding up against the run.

No. 1 Packers running back Eddie Lacy is officially done for the year. Sam Shields (concussion, I.R.) is also done for the year. Lacy has been on I.R. since Week 7. He would have been eligible to return for the final three weeks of the regular season, but the Packers are instead activated CB Makinton Dorleant on Wednesday.

This is the 24th consecutive season (1993-2016) that Green Bay is appearing on Monday Night Football, the second-longest streak in the league behind only Denver’s 25-year span (1992-2016). It is the Packers’ lone MNF appearance this season. Green Bay is 30-31- 1 all-time on MNF and has won its past two appearances. Rodgers has won his past two games on Monday Night Football, completing 48 of 71 passes (67.6 percent) for 660 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions for a 134.7 passer rating.

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Eagles are four games behind Dallas in the NFC East entering Week 12 and in last place. Philly’s schedule is also tough the rest of the way: at Bengals, vs. Redskins, at Ravens, vs. Giants, vs. Cowboys. Philadelphia lost 26-15 at Seattle last week and has just one road win on the season (Week 2 in Chicago).

Rookie QB Carson Wentz (23 of 45 for 218 yards) was good early, especially on Philadelphia’s first scoring driving that was capped by a 4-yard TD pass to Zach Ertz in the opening moments of the second quarter. Wentz then went 5 of 14 for 25 yards and two interceptions during the rest of the second and the third quarter. Wentz has really struggled since Week 5. But the Packers have given up 1,239 passing yards in the last four games. Opposing teams have scored 153 points over that span including at least 40 in the last two games.

Jim Schwartz’s defense continued its red zone success (the Seahawks were 1-of- 3) but yielded two touchdowns of 35-plus yards and gave up 439 total yards without generating a takeaway. The defense has been downright dominant at Lincoln Financial Field, allowing just 9.5 points per game (compared to 24.6 points on the road).

The Eagles are hurting at running back as No. 1 Ryan Mathews and No. 2 Darren Sproles both left the Seahawks game with injuries. It’s not clear if either can play Monday. It could be rookie Wendell Smallwood starting He had 13 carries for 48 yards vs. Seattle. Also hurt last week were top cornerback Leodis McKelvin (concussion) and rookie starting right tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee). Mathews has rushed for four touchdowns in his past four Monday Night Football contests, including two in Week 2’s 29-14 win at Chicago.

In the last meeting with Philly, the Packers blasted the Eagles 53-20 at Lambeau in Week 11 of the 2014 season. Rodgers passed for 341 yards and three touchdowns. Mark Sanchez was the Philly QB that day and. Current Eagles head coach Doug Pederson played quarterback from the Packers from 1996-98 and 2001-04.

My Expert Pick

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Take the Packers on NFL odds and go over the total.