Top NFL Week 16 Betting Predictions

Indianapolis at NY Jets Odds, Betting Pick & TV Info

Written by on December 2, 2016

Both the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets missed the playoffs by one game last year. Both expected to be in the 2016 postseason, though. Indianapolis (5-6) still has a chance if it can win the terrible AFC South Division, but New York (3-8) is simply playing out the string and a slight home dog on NFL odds for Monday’s game.

Indianapolis at NY Jets Odds, Betting Pick & TV Info

When: Monday, Dec. 5, 8:30 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
Stream Option: WatchESPN Opening NFL Lines: Colts -1.5 (48.5)

Why Bet on Indianapolis?

The Colts come off a 28-7 home loss to Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving but didn’t have star QB Andrew Luck due to a concussion. While his replacement, Scott Tolzien, hung tough most of the night, the performance wasn’t good enough to extend the Colts’ 10-game winning streak on Thursday nights. Indy’s only score came on a 5-yard TD pass from Tolzien to Donte Moncrief early in the second quarter, a play set up by the first completion of Pat McAfee’s career on a fake punt.

It wasn’t all Tolzien’s fault. T.Y. Hilton had a key drop. So did Donte Moncrief. Phillip Dorsett did it on fourth down in the end zone when the Colts needed a touchdown. The Colts are second in the NFL in dropped passes. Their 23 drops are tied with Philadelphia and just one behind the leader, Detroit.

The Colts summed up their night on a 19-play, 89-yard drive that lasted 11 minutes, 22 seconds late in the third quarter and early in the fourth. They didn’t score a point. That’s the second time this season a team had a drive of 19 plays or longer that didn’t result in any points. The Carolina Panthers had a scoreless 20-play drive against the Kansas City Chiefs on Nov. 13.

But Luck will play Monday as he’s been cleared. Luck is the captain of an offense that ranks No. 15 in the league (352 yards per game) with the No. 11 passing attack (257 yards per game). This season, the fifth-year veteran has thrown for 2,827 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing 62.9% of his passes for a passer rating of 94.0. Hilton ranks No. 5 in the league in receiving yards with 942. He also leads the team in receptions (60). However, Luck is 0-2 in his career vs. the Jets.

Why Bet on New York?

The Jets lost a third straight last week, 22-17 to the Patriots. The teams have had a final margin of seven points or fewer in each of their last seven meetings. The Jets had grabbed a 17-13 lead with 10:17 left when Quincy Enunwa leaped over Malcolm Butler in the end zone to bring in a pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick. But Tom Brady led a game-winning TD drive. Fitzpatrick, back as the starter after missing New York’s last game with a sprained knee, was 22 of 32 for 269 yards.

The Jets will stick with Fitzpatrick this week, marking Monday night his ninth career start against the Colts. Fitzpatrick has started against Indy in each of the last four seasons, including a Week 2 victory in Indy last season. The passing game for the Jets has struggled this season. Protecting the football has also been an issue. New York’s 22 giveaways are the second most in the NFL. Defensively, the Jets are solid against the run (4th in the NFL), with the back end showing some leakage (22nd in the NFL in pass defense).

New York has not forced a turnover since Week 8 and has the second-fewest takeaways in the NFL. The only team with fewer takeaways and a worse turnover differential than the Jets is the Jacksonville Jaguars. “That’s the biggest difference between this year and last year, defensively. Not many takeaways,” said coach Todd Bowles.

Jets center Nick Mangold practiced fully for the first time in five weeks on Thursday. Bowles stopped short of saying Mangold is a lock to play, but it’s likely, barring a setback. It doesn't look good for S Calvin Pryor, DT Steve McLendon and WR Jalin Marshall.

This Monday situation looks familiar to the Jets. On Oct. 17, the Jets packed a three-game losing streak for a road trip to the Arizona Cardinals and they played so poorly in a 28-3 loss that Bowles benched Fitzpatrick the next day. The contest will mark the 69th all-time meeting between the teams in the regular season, with the Colts holding a 40-28 advantage. Indianapolis fell to New York, 20-7, in their last matchup on Sept. 21, 2015 on Monday Night Football.

My Expert Pick

Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Colts are 1-5- 1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New York.

Take the Jets and the under on NFL odds.