NFL Lines & Betting Prediction on Bills vs. Falcons Week 4 Match-Up.

NFL Lines & Betting Prediction on Bills vs. Falcons Week 4 Match-Up

Written by on September 28, 2017

You might not know it, but the Buffalo Bills have not allowed a single passing touchdown through three games under new head coach and former Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott this season, but according to the NFL lines for Week 4 that’s not enough to be considered favorites against Matt Ryan and the explosive Atlanta Falcons, who are favorites by 8-points. Now, let’s find out if their inter-conference clash will change that fact when both teams try to get the win at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Bills (2-1) vs. Falcons (3-0) NFL Lines & Expert Betting Prediction

When: Sunday, October 1, 2017, 1:00 PM ET Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium TV: CBS Radio: 96.5 FM (Buffalo) / 92.9 FM (Atlanta) NFL Lines: Atlanta Falcons -8 Total: 48.5

Expert Analysis on NFL Week 4 ATS Betting Picks

Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 21°C/69°F
  • Humidity: 40%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Cloud Cover: 19%
  • Wind: 15 mph ENE
  • Stadium Type: Retractable

Why go with the Buffalo Bills Odds at +8?

The Bills stunned the Denver Broncos in their 26-16 Week 3 win as quarterback Tyrod Taylor went an efficient 20-for-26 for 213 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while throwing TD passes to tight end Charles Clay and wide receiver Andre Holmes. More importantly, Buffalo’s defense harassed Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian into an uninspiring 24-for-40 effort for 259 yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns in the win. Now, the Bills will try to put the pressure on Matt Ryan when the 2015 league MVP sets up to throw to his stable of speedy receivers and running backs. Buffalo’s defense will get a boost from the likely return of Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus after he missed last week’s game against the Broncos. “I’m feeling good,” Dareus said. “We’re going to take it day by day and see how things go. Just trying to check the soreness and keep moving forward.” The Bills will also look to get the veteran running back LeSean McCoy going with the Pro Bowler rushing for just 30 combined yards over his last two games after putting up 110 yards in Buffalo’s opener. “Each week is going to call for different things, but we have to stay true to our identity,” Taylor told the Bills’ official website. “We showed we can be more than multiple in our passing attack. Whether it’s using keepers to keep a defense honest on the back side, it’s ultimately going to help (McCoy).” For the season, Taylor is completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 562 yards with four touchdowns and just one interception. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing just 12.3 points per game to rank first in points allowed, a huge fact being considered in the NFL Lines for Week 4.

Team Statistics


  • Average Score For: 16.67
  • Total Yards: 285.33
  • Rush Yards: 111.33
  • Passing Yards: 174


  • Average Score Against: 12.33
  • Total Yards: 278.33
  • Rush Yards: 75.33
  • Passing Yards: 203

Why Bet the Atlanta Falcons Odds at -8?

The Atlanta Falcons escaped with a narrow 30-26 win over Detroit that ended in a bit of controversy after Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford seemingly tossed a 1-yard touchdown pass to Golden Tate with eight seconds remaining in regulation. After an officiating review, Tate was ruled down just short of the goal line and a 10-second runoff was required and since the Lions were out of timeouts, giving the Falcons the win. 2016 league MVP Matt Ryan completed 24 of 35 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns but was also picked off three times in the win while running back Devonta Freeman rushed for a team-high 106 yards and one score on 21 carries. Superstar wide receiver Julio Jones caught seven passes for 91 yards in the win. Now, Ryan knows the Falcons will have to be at their best against Buffalo’s stellar pass defense. The NFL Lines for Week 4 are with the Falcons at -8. “I think their defense has done a good job,” Ryan said to reporters this week. “The secondary has been stout. The defense, in general, hasn’t given up many points. They have played really well in the first three weeks.” Ryan touched on the Falcons and their fifth-ranked scoring offense (29.0 ppg) likely needing to make a big play or two against the Bills. “We didn’t really hit any in the last game, but we’ve been pretty efficient throwing the ball down the field,” Ryan said. “It backs things off if we are willing and able to take shots down the field when they give us looks to do it. We’re going to continue to do that. We feel like we are going to hit them when we get those opportunities.” Defensively, Atlanta is giving up 22.0 points per game to rank 20th in points allowed.

Team Statistics


  • Average Score For: 29
  • Total Yards: 388
  • Rush Yards: 118.67
  • Passing Yards: 269.33


  • Average Score Against: 22
  • Total Yards: 330.67
  • Rush Yards: 85
  • Passing Yards: 245.67

NFL Betting Trends for Week 4

  • Bills are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
  • Bills are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Atlanta
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 7 games when playing Atlanta
  • Falcons are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games
  • Falcons 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Atlanta’s last 12 games

Expert NFL Lines Analysis and Prediction

I really like the way the Bills are playing defense under Sean McDermott, but the fact of the matter is that Atlanta has too many playmakers and is just too explosive for the Bills to stop – or keep up with offensively in this contest. Bills are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record while the Falcons have gone a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in their L/5 games against a team with a winning record and a consistent 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Trust the NFL Lines and even more, Atlanta wins by double-digits to cover the chalk! Pick: Atlanta -8
ram Jairo Loading Image