Will No. 1 overall draft pick Joe Burrow light it up in Cincinnati right off the bat or will he need some time to figure out the NFL game like most rookie quarterbacks? Will Tua Tagovailoa even see the field in Miami with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick scheduled to start this coming campaign? Let’s check the Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds.
Post Draft NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
Could the fleet-footed Henry Ruggs III live up to his lofty draft status or will CeeDee Lamb make everyone remember why he was considered the best receiver in this year’s draft? With the 2020 NFL draft now firmly in the record books and the upcoming regular season inching closer toward its Week 1 opener, now is a perfect time to examine the recently released odds on several Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates. Before I get started though, let’s take a look inside some interesting Offensive ROY history and trends.
While the running back position has been maddeningly undervalued in my opinion, take note, two of the last three offensive ROY winners have been running backs (Saquon Barkley, 2018, Alvin Kamara, 2017). Running backs have won the award in four of the last seven seasons overall.
Don’t think that this award is designed to go to first-year quarterbacks either. Only Dak Prescott (2016) and Kyler Murray (2019) have taken home this hardware in the last seven years.
Strangely enough, this ward has also gone to a player from the NFC in 13 consecutive seasons with former Vince Young the last AFC player to win it (2006).
Minnesota has had a league-high five Offensive Rookie of the Year winners. Baltimore, Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City, San Francisco, Seattle, Philadelphia and the New York Jets have never had a player win Offensive ROY. Last, but not least, there has never been a tight end to ever win the award.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Winners by Position
- Quarterback 10
- Running Back 34
- Wide Receiver 9
- FIELD 0
Among the 38 of the 53 players to win Offensive Rookie of the Year were taken in the first-round of the 2020 NFL Draft while eight were selected in the second round. Former running back Mike Anderson is the lowest draft pick to ever win the award (189th). Eight of the 10 quarterbacks to win the award were selected in the first round while 24 of the 34 running backs to win the award and six of the nine wide receivers to win it were also drafted in the first round
Joe Burrow: +250
Things don’t look good for Burrow with Kyler Murray and Cam Newton (2011) being the only first-overall picks to win the award in the last nine years.
Tua Tagovailoa: +800
With Tagovailoa almost certainly opening the season behind veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick and potentially staying in that role all season, let it be known that the legendary Dan Marino is the only quarterback to win the offensive ROY award with less than 12 starts in his rookie season. I’m not banking on Tua doing much as a rookie and you shouldn’t either.
D’Andre Swift: +900
Swift will team with – and he could surpass – veteran Kerryon Johnson in his first year in the league. After seeing action in 10 games as a rookie in 2018, Johnson was limited to eight games in 2019, clearly paving the way for Swift, the 35th overall pick in the draft, to potentially become the immediate starter.
Jonathan Taylor: +950
I thought the super gifted Taylor was the best running back in this draft after putting up some crazy numbers in three seasons at Wisconsin. The 41st overall pick in the draft will have a decent shot to claim this award as he teams up with veteran Marlon Mack to give Indianapolis arguably the best running back duo in the league.
Jerry Jeudy: +1300
The former Alabama star and 15th overall pick in the draft will start immediately in Denver and if Drew Lock has any kind of decent campaign, Jeudy will be major reason why,, making him a great pick to potentially win this award.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: +1400
Edwards-Helaire is definitely gifted and he’s going to the offensively explosive Super Bowl champing Chiefs. He’ll join a crowded backfield and his touches will be limited because of that fact.
CeeDee Lamb: +1500
Lamb was the highest rated receiver in this year’s draft, but the former Oklahoma star slid all the way to Dallas with the 17th overall pick. Now, he’’l join Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott in what could be one of the scariest offense in all of football in 2020 and beyond.
J.K. Dobbins: +1600
Dobbins was a star at Oklahoma that put up over 2,000 total yards for the Buckeyes a year ago. Despite going 55th to Baltimore, many believe Dobbins was a first round talent. He’ll share the carries with Mark Ingram – until he eventually surpasses the veteran on the depth chart.
Henry Ruggs III: +1800
The former Alabama star was widely expected to be the third receiver taken in the draft after the aforementioned Lamb and Jeudy, but he went to Oakland with the 11th pick and now, he’ll start right away. The speedy Riggs will have a chance to put up good numbers – if Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota get their acts together.
Cam Akers: +2000
The former Florida State star went to the Rams with the 52nd overall pick. While he’ll join an L.A. team that just traded Todd Gurley, he’ll almost assuredly be part of a three-way tandem at running back that likely features veteran Malcolm Brown and the younger Darrell Henderson.
Justin Herbert: +2000
Sure, the Chargers selected Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the draft, but I’m not expecting him to see much – if any – action in 2020 as he learns behind steady veteran Tyrod Taylor, for what I suspect will be the vast majority of the 2020 season.
Zack Moss: +2000
The former Utah star went to Buffalo with the 86th overall pick in the draft. He’ll get carries, but not as many as he’ll need to win this award, seeing as how he’s joining a crowded backfield that featured Devin Singletary as the starter.
Denzel Mims: +2300
The 59th pick in the draft and former Baylor star could end up as the New York Jets top receiver, seeing as how veterans Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder are good, but definitely, not great players.